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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones. Daniel Meléndez. NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002. Outline. Team Composition Vision / Benefits Goals / Targets Key Information Gaps Key Solutions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary. Tropical Cyclones Team Composition.

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Tropical Cyclones Daniel Meléndez NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision / Benefits • Goals / Targets • Key Information Gaps • Key Solutions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

  3. Tropical CyclonesTeam Composition • Daniel Meléndez (NWS/OST) • Scott Kiser (NWS/OS) • Richard Knabb (TPC) • Miles Lawrence (TPC) • Xiaofan Li (NESDIS) • Frank Marks (OAR/HRD) • Morris Bender (GFDL) • Scott Braun (NASA/GFDL) • Gregg Engel (JTWC) • Naomi Surgi (NCEP/EMC) • Robert Tuleya (NCEP) • Frank Wells (WFO/Guam) • Hugh Willoughby (OAR/HRD)

  4. Tropical CyclonesVision / Benefits • 2025 Vision • 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm • 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt • Save Lives / Enhanced Public Safety • Improved Response Capability of Emergency Managers • Mitigate Property Loss • Economic Impact Increasingly Complex (coastal development….)

  5. On Track Low Risk High Risk Tropical CyclonesGoals/Targets to FY 12

  6. Low Risk High Risk On Track Hydrologic ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12

  7. Tropical CyclonesKey Information Gaps (not ranked) • Improved Forecasting of Rapidly Changing Storms • More Accurate Cyclone Track and Intensity Forecast • Understanding of Model Guidance Uncertainty • More Precise Position of Circulation Center • Higher Resolution Storm Wind Data

  8. Tropical CyclonesKey S&T Solutions

  9. Tropical CyclonesKey S&T Solutions

  10. 10 02 05 06 07 08 04 09 11 12 03 Tropical Cyclones Key S&T SolutionsCurrent Programmatic Phase Targeted Obs* *Aircraft Upgrades (SFMR, GPS dropsondes…) Observations Adaptive Obs *Airborne Upgrade Radar Wind DA Deployment *Advanced DA of Satellite Data OTE *Oceanic DA DA/Models HWRF 7km *Hurricane WRF DTE Core Init *GFS Ensembles R&D *Advanced Data Assimilation Techniques *JHT Tech Transfer Enabling Process

  11. Tropical CyclonesOutstanding R&D Needs • Rapid Intensity Changing Storms • Shear Effects on Track and Intensity • Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance” on Model Output • Improved Data Assimilation • Improved Model Physics (microphysics, air-sea fluxes…) • Model Physics Sensitivities • Ensemble Techniques • Adaptive Observations/Targeting • Predictability Limits

  12. Tropical CyclonesSummary • Vision • 48-hr Track Forecast Error of 85 nm • 48-hr Intensity Forecast Error 12 kt • R&D Needs • Rapid Intensity Changing Storms • Shear Effects on Track & Intensity • Statistical “Guidance-on-Guidance • Improved Data Assimilation • Improved Model Physics • Model Physics Sensitivities • Ensemble Techniques • Adaptive Observations • Predictability Limits • Implement Hurricane WRF • Data Assimilation • Deploy Advanced Ensemble Techniques • Expand Adaptive Strategies • New Satellite Remote Sensing Increasing Performance • Aircraft Instrumentation Upgrades • Expand Targeted Observations Joint Hurricane Testbed 2002 2007 2012 2020

  13. Tropical CyclonesSummary • Improved track and intensity performances depend mostly on advances in numerical prediction/data assimilation • Intensity error performance is virtually “flat” – awaits significantly improved storm core specification and numerical forecasting R & D

  14. Tropical Cyclones BACKGROUND SLIDES

  15. Backup

  16. Backup

  17. Tropical CyclonesPrimary Customers/Partners • Public • Media • Federal, State, Local Government • DOD • 53 WRS • State EMA’s • WMO RA-IV • Mariners • Private Sector

  18. Tropical CyclonesKey Products/Services

  19. Tropical CyclonesS & T Roadmap • (Insert Spreadsheet)

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