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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula Davidson

Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula Davidson. NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002. Outline. Team Composition Vision/Benefits Goals/Targets Key Gaps Key Decisions Outstanding R & D Needs Summary. Air Quality Forecasting Tiger Team Composition.

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Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula Davidson

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  1. Science and Technology Infusion Plan for Air Quality Forecasting Paula Davidson NWS S&T Committee September 17, 2002

  2. Outline • Team Composition • Vision/Benefits • Goals/Targets • Key Gaps • Key Decisions • Outstanding R & D Needs • Summary

  3. Air Quality ForecastingTiger Team Composition • Pai-Yei Whung (Team Lead) (OAR) • Paula Davidson* (NWS/OST) • Paul Stokols* (NWS/OCWWS) • Ralph Petersen* (NWS/NCEP) • James Meagher* (OAR) • Richard Artz* (OAR) • William Stockwell* (OAR) • James O’Sullivan (OAR) • Roger Pierce (OAR) • James Lee (NWS/OCWWS) • Paul Hirschberg (NWS/OST) • Ken Schere (OAR/EPA) • (NESDIS)

  4. Air Quality ForecastingVision / Benefits Current • NWS forecasting does not include AQ • High societal costs of poor AQ • Capabilities ready for transition Vision Provide the Nation with accurate and timely air quality forecasts to protect lives, property REDUCE loss of life, health and property from poor air quality >60,000 deaths/yr from high levels of particulate matter ~ $150 B/ yr health cost of air pollution ~ $2.4 B/ yr agricultural crop losses from high levels of ozone

  5. Air Quality ForecastingGoals/Targets to FY 12

  6. Air Quality ForecastingKey Gaps: Questions for IOC Planning Roles of Partners: public and private? Best use of observations? Optimum configuration for accuracy/efficiency of AQ models? Alternative concepts of operation? Estimates for schedule/resources?

  7. NOAA AQFP Timeline* *integrated with WRF schedule Current and Projected Funding ($M) OAR 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 NWS Research/Prototype Pre-Operational Development Real-Time Test/Evaluation (RTT&E) Operational 1-day PM 1-day PM 1-day PM 1-day O3:NE V/V meth 1-day O3: NE 1-day O3 IOC NE extend to EUS 1-day O3: Nation FY 02 03 04 05 06 07

  8. NOAA AQFP Critical Decision Points: IOC in FY 04 • Verification and Validation • Select O3 module for FY04 RTT&E • Select modules for FY03 development/testing • Define Forecaster Role • Complete plan for evaluating alternatives in FY03 • Select IT architecture design • Define forecast products • Evaluate air chemistry obs needs • Approve O3 module for operational use

  9. NOAA AQFP: Proposed Concepts of Operations PARTNERS and END USERS Fed./State Private/Public Forecasts NCDC Obs. NWP Forecaster Role ??? • “Hands Off” • Central Desk • WFOs • B+C Archive NDFD

  10. NOAA AQF Next Steps For September 2002 • Refine/Validate Timeline • Key Decision Points • Responsibility, Criteria approval • Obtain computing resources estimates • Refine deliverables, resource estimates • Finalize EPA-NOAA MOU Next 6 months • Planning for FY 03 – FY 07+ • Define customer requirements • Define deliverables, resource estimates • Monthly Meetings

  11. Air Quality ForecastingOutstanding R&D Needs • What is the best use of atmospheric chemistry observations for forecasting? • Which species must be included to accurately predict ozone, PM, and expanded product suite? • What is the best approach for V&V? • What is the best use of ensembles in AQ prediction? • What are the most effective methods for statistical post-processing?

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