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E-learning course for DS: Energy and sustainable development GLOBAL CHALLENGES 2 Giovanna Anselmi

E-learning course for DS: Energy and sustainable development GLOBAL CHALLENGES 2 Giovanna Anselmi Enea - Ufficio di Presidenza ganselmi@sede.enea.it UNESCO Rome, 2007 22 nd January. TO DAY LECTURE OUTLINE. 2. ENERGY MAIN GLOBAL CHALLENGES. POPULATION. 4. Source: WEO 2006.

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E-learning course for DS: Energy and sustainable development GLOBAL CHALLENGES 2 Giovanna Anselmi

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  1. E-learning course for DS: Energy and sustainable development GLOBAL CHALLENGES 2 Giovanna Anselmi Enea - Ufficio di Presidenza ganselmi@sede.enea.it UNESCO Rome, 2007 22nd January

  2. TO DAY LECTURE OUTLINE 2

  3. ENERGY MAIN GLOBAL CHALLENGES

  4. POPULATION 4 Source: WEO 2006

  5. MACROECONOMIC FACTORS 5 Source: WEO 2006

  6. Brazil is Latin America’s largest energy consumer accounting for over 40% of the region’s consumption • Its energy mix is dominated by renewable energy sources (27%) & oilwhich accounts for 42% of total demand  Brazil is the world’s second-largest producer and largest exporter of ethanol. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: BRAZIL  It is also expanding its production and use of biodiesel • Hydropower (14%)is expected to meet most of its power-generation needs, if build about 66 GW of new capacity in 2004-2030 as in the R. S. • Public incentives and privat Invetments are required for the projected growth in energy supply 6

  7. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: BRAZIL Source: WEO 2006 7

  8. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: BRAZIL Source: WEO 2006 8

  9. THE MAJOR CHALLENGES1 A priority for the government : to strengthen its policy & regulatory framework to secure the necessary investments COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: BRAZIL • - mobilising investment in oil, gas and electricity infrastructure • resolving environmental issues over the construction of large dams, • pipelines and transmission lines 9

  10. THE MAJOR CHALLENGES2 • Uncertain gas supply related to gas import from Bolivia, at the present • the 43% of total consumption • Environmental concerns related to CO2 emission • Building of new large hydropower plants • Promoting use of bagasse and non-hydro renewables for cogeneration • of heat and power COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: BRAZIL 10

  11. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: BRAZIL THE POLICY1 Source: WEO 2006 11

  12. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: BRAZIL THE POLICY2 Source: WEO 2006 12

  13. INVESTMENTS FOR ENERGY P&T INFRASTRUCTURES in 2005-2030 • The investment needed to meet the projected growth in energy supply is considerable, some $470 billion (in year-2005 dollars) of wich: • power generation $252 billion: - ½ for generation - ½ for transmission & distribution Infrastructures • cumulative oil : $ 138 billion § gas: $ 48 bn  biofuels $ 31bn COUNTRY SHEET: BRAZIL 13

  14. INVESTMENTS FOR ENERGY P&T INFRASTRUCTURES in 2005-2030 COUNTRY SHEET: BRAZIL Source: WEO 2006 14

  15. China’s real gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have grown • at 9.9 percent in 2005 - FDI into China totaled $86.1 billion - China is the second largest energy consumer behind the United States COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: CHINA 2005-2006 - China is the world’s third-largest net importer of oil behind the US & Japan • China is the largest producer and consumer of coal in the world: coal • makes up 69 percent of China's total primary energy consumption • The Government provides refiners with subsidies to ease the gulf • between low domestic rates and high international oil prices • In 2004 China generated 2,080 & consumed 1,927 Bkwh of electricity • Since 2000, both el. generation and consumption have increased by 60% 15

  16. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: CHINA 16

  17. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: CHINA 17

  18. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: CHINA 18

  19. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: CHINA 19

  20. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: CHINA THE MAJOR CHALLENGES • Secure energy supply will meet energy needs of future development • Decrease air and soil pollution • Open the country to FDI and become attractive • Decrease oil and coal share in energy mix • Develop new renewables and nuclear plants 20

  21. THE POLICY1 • 1998: the Chinese government reorganized most state owned oil and gas assets into vertically integrated firms: • the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) • the China Petroleum and Chemical Corporation (SINOPEC) • the China National Offshore Oil Corporation, (CNOOC) the other major • state sector firm (offshore exploration and production, roughly 15% of • China's domestic crude oil production) COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: CHINA • many foreign companies have been contracted to undertake oil • exploration & production activities: the China’s oil companies by law • have the majority (51%) • the Chinese government mandates a royalty fee of 12.5 % for oil sector • foreign companies • discounts have been offered for development and exploration in more • remote onshore areas, such as the western provinces of Qinghai and • Xinjiang. 21

  22. THE POLICY2 • The country has been acquiring interests in oil exploration and production • abroad: in 21 countries spanning four continents • The Chinese government is in the process of drafting a new legal • framework for the natural gas sector, to attract investors • NDRC’s directives are aiming to reforme coal sector to raise total coal • output, attract greater investment and new coal technologies, to improve • the safety and environmental record of coal mines, closing small local • inefficient mines COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: CHINA • Chinese government has made the expansion of natural gas-fired • power plants a priority, reformed the sector dismantling the monopoly • January 1, 2006: The new Law on Renewable energy: a priorityto a • cleaner environment 22

  23. INVESTMENTS FOR ENERGY P&T INFRASTRUCTURES in 2005-2030 1 • In Sudan, CNPC has invested more than $8 billion in the country’s oil • sector, including investments in a 900-mile pipeline to the Red Sea • CNPC finalized the purchase of PetroKazakhstan, it was complemented • by the completion of the 600-mile Sino-Kazakh oil pipeline • CNPC other overseas investments: purchasing Encana’s oil and gas • assets in Ecuador and PetroCanada’s oil and gas assets in Syria. • Sinopec has also looked overseas for oil exploration and production • opportunities • In 2004 Sinopec signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the • Iranian government to acquire 51% stake in the large Yadavaran oil field COUNTRY SHEET: CHINA • CNPC announced its intentions to invest $18 bn in foreign oil & gas • assets in 2005 - 2020 23

  24. INVESTMENTS FOR ENERGY P&T INFRASTRUCTURES in 2005-2030 2 • China is firmly committed to improving its domestic & transnational oil • and gas transport infrastructures • China’s national oil companies are currently planning or building several • new refineries and upgrading existing plants refinery capacity • CNOOC built China’s first LNG import terminal in Guangdong & LNG • import terminal in Fujian province, receiving LNG respectively from • Australia’s Northwest Shelf & from BP’s Tangguh consortia in Indonesia • for about 6.3 Mmt/y LNG supply • - China is currently building the Three Gorges Dam hydroelectric facility, • the largest hydroelectric project in the world. • China is also actively promoting nuclear power as a clean and efficient • source of electricity generation $50 b COUNTRY SHEET: CHINA 24

  25. - India’s economy continues to grow at a rate of nearly 7%(GDP)y • Annual foreign direct investment (FDI) in India has hovered in the range • of $5-$6 billion over the last several years, COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET:INDIA • Oil consumption in India is projected to grow to 3.1 million bbl/d by2010, • from 2.5 million bbl/d in 2005 • Indian consumption of natural gas has risen faster than any other fuel • from 0.63 Tcf/y in 1995, to 0.96 Tcf in 2003 and is projected to reach • 1.8 Tcf in 2015 - India is the world’s third largest coal producer - power generation capacity is seriously below peak demand at the present 25

  26. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET:INDIA 26

  27. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET:INDIA 27

  28. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET:INDIA 28

  29. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET:INDIA 29

  30. COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET: INDIA THE MAJOR CHALLENGES • Economic Reforms related to energy sectors - Limit its dependence on oil imports as energy source - Expand low drilling recovery rates in the oil supply - Expand refinery capacity - Reforms in natural gas pricing mechanism and sector • Decrease the high level of transmission, distribution losses & widespread • power theft, improve the efficiency 30

  31. THE POLICY • policy changes to encourage foreign investment (lowering tarifs on • imported goods, eliminating them for equipment of large scale power • generation projects…) • reduction of political tensions with Pakistan very important for energy • sector development COUNTRY ENERGY SHEET:INDIA - the abandonment of full privatization of the state-owned petroleum sector - reforms in the electric utilities sector (Electricity Act of 2003) 31

  32. INVESTMENTS FOR ENERGY P&T INFRASTRUCTURES in 2005-2030 • India has implemented a series of policy changes since the mid-1990s • to encourage foreign investment: Annual FDI $5-$6 bilion COUNTRY SHEET:INDIA • Nuclear hotlineand gas & oil pipelines between India and Pakistan are • planned 32

  33. DEEPENING THE DIALOGUE It means: • Not only good external relations, but also to build up profitables agreements for • both exporting and importing countries • And follow good praxis as: • Build up (as Brazil do) infrastructures for Transnational pipelines like : • GASBOL (Bolivia-Brazil gas pipeline. 1999) • TGM (Argentina to Brazil: Transportadora de Gas del Mercosur. 2000) 33 • Diversifying the exporting countries mix (Brazil is doing agreements to import • gas from Venezuela too) - Involving international oil companies for exploration and development (as China do) • Promoting FDI in nuclear plants, as China do, involving nippon - american • Westinghouse, french and russian multinational companies in its program to • build up new 30 atomic reactors between 2004-2020 - A reduction of political tensions (as India has done restoring relations with Pakistan & resuming high-level contacts)

  34. Energy and sustainable development: Global challenges for a sustainable Future THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION PLEASE DO YOUR QUESTIONS NOW OR SEND THEM AFTERWORDS BY EMAIL TO:ganselmi@sede.enea.it 34

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