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Simulation and Projection of Heat Waves in Present and Future Climates

Simulation and Projection of Heat Waves in Present and Future Climates. Lau Ngar-Cheung, Gabriel. HiRAM_H. CM3. CFSR. Identification of a Heat Wave Event. ≥ 3 days. 90 th Percentile. Average Temperature ≥ 90 th Percentile value. Daily Maximum Surface Air Temperature. 75 th

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Simulation and Projection of Heat Waves in Present and Future Climates

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  1. Simulation and Projection ofHeat Waves inPresent and Future Climates Lau Ngar-Cheung, Gabriel

  2. HiRAM_H CM3 CFSR

  3. Identification of a Heat Wave Event ≥ 3 days 90th Percentile Average Temperature ≥ 90th Percentile value Daily Maximum Surface Air Temperature 75th Percentile duration Time

  4. Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 1 L L mm d-1

  5. Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 2 L L mm d-1

  6. Circulation and Precipitation Patterns Accompanying Heat Waves in Region 3 L L mm d-1

  7. Surface Air Temperature Change 2086-2095 minus 1979-2008 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5 oC

  8. Heat Waves in Region 2

  9. Model Projections Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 RCP 4.5 RCP 8.5

  10. PDF HiRAM_H CM3 Region 1 Present Region 2 2086-2095 Region 3

  11. # HEAT WAVE DAYS CFSR Days/yr HiRAM 1979-2008 HiRAM 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008

  12. Midwest Heat Waves Model Observations Surface Temperature °C Precipitation mm/dy

  13. Model Projections Ratio: 2041-2070 vs 1971-2000

  14. Rotated EOF Tmax

  15. European HeatWaves Mode 1 Mode 2 Surface Temperature oC Precipitation mm day -1

  16. Model Projections Ratio: 2086-2095 vs 1979-2008 RCP 4.5

  17. Thank You

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