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Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future climates paper - an update.

Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future climates paper - an update. Eleanor Jennings, Stuart Jones, Lauri Arvola , Peter A. Staehr , Evelyn Gaiser , Ian Jones, Kathleen Weathers , Gesa Weyhenmeyer , Charles Chiu. review/case studies/conceptual model.

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Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future climates paper - an update.

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  1. Impacts of episodic pulse events in lakes under present and future climates paper - an update. Eleanor Jennings, Stuart Jones, LauriArvola, Peter A. Staehr, Evelyn Gaiser, Ian Jones, Kathleen Weathers, GesaWeyhenmeyer, Charles Chiu review/case studies/conceptual model

  2. Episodic pulse event (EPE) Definition A sudden and short-lived change in the magnitude of a physical, chemical or biological parameter in a lake that is distinct from previous background levels.

  3. PRIMARY DRIVERS - METEROLOGICAL A. Episodic flood events B. Episodic mixing events C. Episodic stratification events

  4. IMPACTS Physical Chemical Biological

  5. IMPACTS Physical Chemical Biological

  6. shift to more persistent, alternative state IMPACTS Physical Chemical Biological Ecological regime shift

  7. Yuan Yang Paajarvi Slotsso Blelham Leane Annie

  8. Slotto, Denmark, 2006 Leane, Ireland,1997

  9. YYL, 2005 Blelham Tarn, 2006

  10. Tropical storm Fay, Lake Annie, 2008

  11. RISK HIGH MED low Severityhigh highResiliencelow LOW

  12. Impact of projected climate change • Projected changes in EPEs • Increase in severity • Increase in frequency • Increase in both severity and frequency

  13. Impact of projected climate change • Projected changes in EPEs • Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right • Increase in frequency • Increase in both severity and frequency

  14. Impact of projected climate change • Projected changes in EPEs • Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right • Increase in frequency – matrix contracts upwards • Increase in both severity and frequency

  15. Impact of projected climate change • Projected changes in EPEs • Increase in severity – risk matrix shifts to the right • Increase in frequency – matrix contracts upwards • Increase in both severity and frequency – contracts + shifts to right

  16. Impact of projected climate change CO2 emissions peak Temperature stabilisation CO2 stabilisation 1000 yrs Today (IPCC Synthesis report, 2001)

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