Issues to Watch: 2007 Jonathan Lash World Resources Institute December 19, 2006

1. Issues to Watch: 2007Jonathan LashWorld Resources InstituteDecember 19, 2006

2. 5 ISSUES TO WATCH • Prospects for Climate Legislation • Climate and Energy in the Agriculture Bill • Chesapeake Water Quality Initiative • New Science and Technology • International Process

3. Congressional Action?

4. REPORT: November 17, 2006 A New Energy Future Lessons from the 2006 Election: “Campaign ads highlighted energy issues in a prominent and unprecedented way this election cycle and had a huge impact on the campaigns.”

5. More than 75 percent [of voters in the 2006 elections] said they agreed with the following statement: “Congress should pass legislation promoting renewables and alternative energy sources as an effective way to reduce global warming pollution.” Majorities in all demographics said lawmakers should support to the two solutions, including 53 percent of self-described conservatives and nearly 37 percent of self-described “very conservative” voters.

6. Hurricane Katrina August 28, 2005 Photo Credit: NASA/Jeff Schmaltz, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team

7. Growing Public Concern in US

8. CALIFORNIA • Global Warming Solutions Act (signed September 27, 2006): • Caps California’s greenhouse gas emissions at 1990 levels by 2020. • Requires State Air Resources Board to establish, monitor, and enforce compliance for statewide greenhouse gas emissions reporting program. • Authorizes state board to adopt market-based compliance mechanisms including cap-and-trade.

9. Regulating U.S. Emissions in Northeast Goal: A regional cap-and-trade program initially covering CO2 emissions from power plants Stabilize emissions at base levels through 2014 Reduce by 10% by 2018 Region statistics: 7 states represent 7% US total GHG emissions  1.5% of world GHG emissions (Australia, rank 15th) Other states: MD (signed; expected to implement under new governor) MA (expected to rejoin under new governor)

10. 50% of electricity sales subject to Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) / Renewable Energy (RE) goals 20 states + D.C. with RPS 3 states w/ goals RPS in effect Goals in place Source: database of state incentives for renewable energy (2006)

11. 36% of U.S auto market set for GHG rules 12 states adopting California GHG rules; number of new car registrations (thousands of vehicles), 2005 Source: National Automobile Dealer Association 2006;

12. Tomorrow’s Markets Reforestation Biofuels Carbon Capture & Storage Energy Efficiency GHG Reducing Products and Services Wind power Mass transit Coal-based Synfuels with CCS Adapted from: Robert Socolow, www.princeton.edu/~cmi

14. David SlumpGeneral Manager, global marketing, GE Energy,General Electric Co. Andy RubenVice President of Corporate Strategy/Sustainability,Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. Ruth ShawGroup Executive, Public Policy and President, Duke Nuclear,Duke Energy Corp. Jeff SterbaChairman, President and CEO,PNM Resources Michael Murray,Director, Legislative Policy,Sempra Energy Elizabeth A. MolerExecutive V.P., Government and Environmental Affairs &Public Policy,Exelon Corp. Garth EdwardTrading Manager, Environmental Products,Shell Group

15. Senate Committee: Environment and Public Works 109th Congress • Republicans: • James Inhofe, Committee Chair (OK) • John Warner (VA) • Christopher Bond (MO) • George Voinovich (OH) • Lincoln Chafee (RI) • Lisa Murkowski (AK) • John Thune (SD) • Jim DeMint (SC) • Johnny Isakson (GA) • David Vitter (LA) • Democrats: • James Jeffords, Minority leader (VT) • Max Baucus (MT) • Joseph Lieberman (CT) • Barbara Boxer (CA) • Thomas Carper (DE) • Hillary Rodham Clinton (NY) • Frank Lautenberg (NJ) • Barack Obama (IL) Incumbent replacements for 110th Congress: Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) Bernard Sanders (I-VT) - New Committee Chair - Will not be serving in 110th Congress

20. CARS and COAL American Electric Power, Zimmer Coal Plant,Moscow, Ohio

21. Global Markets Can We Reduce GHGs and Still Compete Globally?

22. In the last 10 years the United States has consumed approximately 72.4 billion barrels of oil. More than 50% of that was imported. * Based on data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) Report: Short-Term Energy Outlook, December 12 , 2006 Release

23. Number of Gas Stations that carry E85 Source: DOE, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy

24. If the entire acreage under corn production in the United States (80 million acres) were turned over to ethanol production, it would only account for one eighth of current gasoline demand. *Data from World Resources Institute

25. Dead Zones Source: Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

26. Chesapeake Bay Watershed

27. No dispute among scientific bodies…

28. Financial Times – December 2006 A Different Kind of Hot Times On the Slopes AP Photo

29. Source: Science Magazine, Sep 16, 2005

30. Risk, for species diversity, wetlands, and coastal zones significantly increases when temperatures rise above 2º C Hare, 2005; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research

31. Cellulosic Ethanol Pilot Plant Supercapacitorwith Nanotechnology Thin-film solar cells

33. Venture capital flows to clean technology companies

34. US R&D Expenditures 1981 - 2005 Source: IEA R&D database http://www.iea.org/Textbase/stats/rd.asp

35. The Key is Top 25 Top 25 in Population Top 25 in GDP Netherlands, (Taiwan) Thailand Canada, S.Korea, Australia, S.Africa, Spain, Poland, Argentina USA, China, (EU25), Russia, India, Japan, Germany, Brazil, UK, Italy, Mexico, France, Indonesia, Iran, Turkey (68% World GHG Emissions) Bangladesh, Nigeria, Viet Nam, Philippines, Ethiopia, Egypt, Congo Ukraine, Pakistan Top 25 in Emissions (80% World GHG Total) S. Arabia Source: WRI/CAIT

36. European Climate Exchange Futures and ContractsPrice and Volume

37. “China overtakes the United States as the world’s biggest emitter before 2010.” -World Energy Outlook 2006 International Energy Agency

38. Per Capita Emissions, 2000