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Correlating Estimated Nutrient Loading Upstream to In-Stream Water Quality

Correlating Estimated Nutrient Loading Upstream to In-Stream Water Quality. A First Step Using Midwestern Watersheds. Alison Goss April 28, 2004. Introduction. Global transformation occurring at a rapid scale Atmospheric variations

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Correlating Estimated Nutrient Loading Upstream to In-Stream Water Quality

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  1. Correlating Estimated Nutrient Loading Upstream to In-Stream Water Quality A First Step Using Midwestern Watersheds Alison Goss April 28, 2004

  2. Introduction • Global transformation occurring at a rapid scale • Atmospheric variations • Land use alteration (Ehleringer et al 2001; IPCC 1996; Mooney et al 1998). • Human activity undoubtedly the driver for many of these conversions • However, predicting the nature of ecosystem response to complex transformations challenging

  3. Context • Focus on land use change • Part of a larger endeavor to establish a link between land use change and ecological integrity • First step in creating linkage is determination of relationship between NPS loadings output from LTHIA and in-stream water quality • LTHIA not designed for this analysis • Development of nutrient fate component

  4. Introduction to LTHIA http://danpatch.ecn.purdue.edu/~sprawl/LTHIA7/documentation/how%20works.html

  5. Context LTHIA Output Nutrient Fate In-Stream Water Quality Ecological Health

  6. Objective: A first step • Comparison of LTHIA nutrient loading output with historical in-stream water quality data for two areas in the Midwestern United States with differing depths to bedrock

  7. Hypothesis • Small depth to bedrock • Less nutrient uptake by soil microbes • Shorter nutrient pathway • NPS loads will be closer to surface water quality values

  8. Methods • Collect land use, soil and WQ data for study sites • Run LTHIA • Focus on N and P • Calculate 100% conservation runoff concentration • Compare to known WQ values • Sensitivity Analysis

  9. Study Sites Ave. depth to bedrock 32 meters.

  10. Study Sites Ave. depth to bedrock 9 meters.

  11. Calculation of conservation nutrient concentration • Takes LTHIA output (kg/grid cell) and determines in-stream water quality • Assumes 100% conservation of nutrients in runoff

  12. Actual vs. Modeled Nutrient Loading in streams

  13. Sensitivity Analysis

  14. Sensitivity Results

  15. Conclusions • LTHIA not a good predictor of downstream surface water quality • N:P may be closer approximation than individual nutrient values • Consistently within 100% of actual value • Also could be a fluke • LTHIA highly sensitive to location of curve number within watershed

  16. References • Ehleringer, J.R., T.E. Cerling, and L.B. Flanagan. 2001. Global changes and the linkages between physiological ecology and ecosystem ecology, p. 115-138. In: M. Press, N. Huntly, and S. Levin (eds.), Ecology: Achievement and Challenge. Blackwell, Oxford. • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. 1996. Climate Change 1995. The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of working group I to the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. • Mooney, H.A. 1998. The Globalization of Ecological Thought. Ecology Institute, Oldendorf.

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