Gender Role Attitudes and Women s Labor Market Participation: Opting-Out, AIDS, and The Persistent Appeal of Housewifer

1. Gender Role Attitudes and Women�s Labor Market Participation: Opting-Out, AIDS, and The Persistent Appeal of Housewifery Nicole M. Fortin Department of Economics and CIFAR University of British Columbia March 2009 University of New South Wales

2. Issue of InterestLeveling-off of FLP After a century of remarkable growth, female labor force participation (FLP) in the United States has leveled-off in the late 1990s. From less than 5 percent at the turn of the 20th century, female labor force participation (FLP) among 18 to 65 year olds grew to over 70 percent in the mid 1990s peaking around 72 percent in the late 1990s, before it began to retreat back to 70 percent in 2004 (and 2007). Since the mid-1990s, there are also been a slowdown in the rate of growth of female labor force participation (FLP) in many high FLP countries, such as Canada, Finland, Norway, Sweden, and the United Kingdom (see Fortin, 2005). 2

3. U.S. Labor Force Participation by Gender(18-65 Year Olds) 3

4. Leveling-off of U.S. FLP in comparison to Canada 4

5. Labor Force Participation in Australia(15 Year Olds and over) 5

6. Issue of InterestOpting-Out Given that the FLP of college-educated women had almost reach parity with men's in the mid-1990s, this stabilization or slight retreat was particularly disappointing for the women's movement. It has been characterized as �opting out� in the popular press (Belkin, 2003; Wallis, 2004; Story, 2005) and among sociologists (Cotter et al., 2007; Stone, 2007) who wonder whether we are witnessing �The End of the Gender Revolution� as an ideological movement. The �opting-out� phenomena has raised more skepticism among economists (Boushey, 2005; Goldin and Katz, 2007) Women�s educational attainment has continued to rise, although their relative wages have not. Their husband�s income has remained relatively unchanged, with an elasticity of income quite low (Blau and Kahn, 2005) Demand-side (e.g. technological change, sectoral shifts; Black and Spitz-Oener, 2007) factors continue to favor women�s work. 6 The opting-out phenomena is conceived as the labor market withdrawal of college-educated women when they have children (Boushey, 2005; Cohany and Sok, 2007), perhaps out of concern for the welfare of their offspring, or perhaps because of the stresses of living in two-earner families or succeeding in the labor market is another interesting hypothesis The opting-out phenomena is conceived as the labor market withdrawal of college-educated women when they have children (Boushey, 2005; Cohany and Sok, 2007), perhaps out of concern for the welfare of their offspring, or perhaps because of the stresses of living in two-earner families or succeeding in the labor market is another interesting hypothesis

7. Issue of InterestRole for Beliefs This paper appeals to changing gender role attitudes, whose progression halted in the mid-1990s, as a source of explanation for the retreat in FLP. Recognizing that traditional gender role attitudes, defined below to capture the notion the husband should be the main ``breadwinner" and the wife the main ``homemaker", are not necessarily antagonistic to egalitarian attitudes, defined below to capture the notion that women are as capable as men in the workforce, the impact of both type of attitudes is studied. Accommodating (rather than opposing) both views in the Work-Life Balance (WLB) has arguably become the new face of feminism. 7 With its focus on attitudes, this paper can be placed in the recent literature that has emphasized the role of social norms and beliefs in modulating the impact of economic fundamentals, such as education, wages, or income, on labor market outcomes.With its focus on attitudes, this paper can be placed in the recent literature that has emphasized the role of social norms and beliefs in modulating the impact of economic fundamentals, such as education, wages, or income, on labor market outcomes.

8. Contribution This paper contributes to the study of the impact of gender role attitudes on FLP in several novel ways, by 1) Accounting for non-linear time-period, life-cycle and cohort effects, as well as a host of background variables, using data from the 1977-2006 General Social Surveys (GSS) and 2) Using longitudinal data from the National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS72) to corroborate the age-period-cohort specification and address concerns about reverse causality. 3) Using a double prong instrumental variables strategy based on extraneous attitudes about sexual morality and political views found in the GSS, and on an exogenous shock to attitudes, namely the mid-1990s AIDS scare using repeated cross-sectional data from the 1988-2006 National Health Interview Surveys (NHIS) in the context of a variant of two-sample two-stage least squares (TS2LS) to address concerns about endogeneity. 8

9. Findings Gender role attitudes, whose secular trends reversed in the mid-1990s when the AIDS crisis peaked, are found to explain the recent leveling-off in FLP, while general cultural trends towards more conservative social, religious and political views do not. More precisely, the estimated coefficients of gender role attitudes imply that the 2 points rise in average traditional attitudes and 4 points decline in average egalitarian attitudes from 1993-94 to 2004-06 would account for one half to a full percentage point decline in FLP. Gender role attitudes are thus found to be the missing gender-specific factors that explain the differences in the concavity of time trends in male and female labor force participation, which remain after accounting for the usual factors. 9

10. Reminder of the Talk Relevant Literature Theoretical Underpinnings: Economic Identity Theory and the AIDS Scare Data and Descriptive Evidence Time-period, life-cycle and cohorts effects in FLP Measurement of gender role attitudes Subjective Risk of HIV/AIDS Econometric Specification and variant of TS2SLS Regression Results Main results Longitudinal analysis with the NLS-72 Instrumental variables strategies Alternative hypotheses (divorce, religious, social and political conservatism, ethnic and health factors) Sub-groups (African-American women, College-educated women vs. women with less than college, men) Implications for subjective well-being Conclusion 10

11. Relevant Literature Impact of gender role attitudes on FLP Levine (1993), Vella (1994), Fortin (2005), Fernandez and Fogli (2005) Intergeneration transmission of gender role attitudes Fernandez, Fogli and Olivetti (2004), Farr�-Olalla and Vella (2007) Dynamic macro-models with gender role attitudes Fernandez (2007) and Fogli and Veldkamp(2007) Cohort-effects � �Pill Revolution� Goldin and Katz (2002), Goldin (2004) and Bailey (2006) Identity and Gender Akerlof and Kranton (2000, 2002), Goldin and Shim (2004), Goldin (2006) 11

12. Theoretical Underpinnings: Economic Identity Theory In historical terms, the spectacular rise in FLP from the mid-1960s onwards, has been shown to coincide with contraceptive innovation, the �Pill� revolution (Goldin and Katz (2002) and Bailey (2006), which facilitated women�s access to higher education and the labor market. Yet, it happened in the same era as other changes, the Civil Rights Movement, the Sexual Revolution and more importantly the �Women�s Liberation Movement�, which proposed to women with the new identity of �career women� equal to men in the workplace, capable of high achievement, and assuming their own identity by keeping their birth name (Goldin and Shim, 2004). 12

13. Theoretical Underpinnings: Economic Identity Theory But for many women who were already assuming multiple identities as spouse, mother, cook, housekeeper, and caregiver to elderly parents, this proposition may have seemed simply like adding another largely untested role or identity to an already long list. Indeed in Fortin (2005), I distinguished three identities,---wife, mother, and career women---, which enabled me to consider mother's guilt separately. Here, because of data limitation in terms of attitudes towards career women in the GSS, I regroup views representing the role of wives and stay-at-home moms into the traditional views and the attitudes associated with the identities of working moms and career women into the egalitarian views. 13

14. Theoretical Underpinnings: Economic Identity Theory Akerlof and Kranton (2000, 2002, 2005) have proposed to incorporate one's sense of self as an important element of the utility function. Identity translates cultural values and social norms into motivational factors. Benabou and Tirole (2006) have introduced competing identities that are competing for time or resources, such as a traditional identity and a modern identity, where investing in the identity-capital of one can damage the other. Here I retain some of the basic elements of their framework: retain the basic elements of the framework: identity-endowment, identity-asset and saliency of identities. 14

15. Theoretical Underpinnings: Economic Identity Theory and the AIDS Scare To the extent that the Women's Liberation movement and Sexual Revolution of the 1960s went together, the new �career woman� was to be a �liberated� women in control of her sexuality and fertility. In this context, the AIDS scare would make the lifestyle of the single, but not celibate, career woman less attractive. With the Pill, some women could become as sexually promiscuous as some men without facing the gender specific consequences; with the AIDS epidemic this equality of �opportunities� was severely tested Other health scares, such as the 2003 Mad Cow and SARS scare also had profound impacts on attitudes, identities and even trade. 15 The impact of the AIDS scare on other behaviors (divorce, age at first marriage) is ambiguous.The impact of the AIDS scare on other behaviors (divorce, age at first marriage) is ambiguous.

16. 65% of cases of AIDS among women are among black women65% of cases of AIDS among women are among black women

17. AIDS Crisis in Canada:Number of cases reported  17

18. Data The main data are drawn the 1977 to 2006 General Social Surveys (GSS) conducted yearly (or bi-yearly) by National Opinion Research Center. Each cross-section comprises 1372 to 2992 observations per year with a total of total of 20,000 females and 19,194 males between the ages of 18 and 65. But the sample for which consistent gender role attitudes are measured comprises a subset of about 9000 women, because the same questions are not asked in each survey. Data from National Longitudinal Survey of the High School Class of 1972 (NLS72) which follows the first post-Pill cohort (1954-55 birth cohorts) are also used. 18

19. Data v Data from the National Health Interview Surveys which have been conducted yearly, for over fifty years, as one of the major data collection programs of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) combine information on health characteristics and many demographic and socioeconomic characteristics. Designed to monitor the health of the U.S. population, these large repeated cross-sectional surveys comprise from 20,000 to 30,000 observations a year. In the late 1980s, the NCHS added they an �AIDS Knowledge and Attitudes" supplement; in 1997 a subset of that module was incorporated into the core components �Sample Adult� . The information one's own chances of getting HIV/AIDS is from the question: �What are your chances of getting HIV/AIDS? High/Already have HIV/AIDS (1), Medium (2/3), Low (1/3), or None (0).� 19 In 1989, there was an attempt to quantify the magnitude of these chances with a follow-up question which was subsequently dropped, probably because of the seemingly unreasonable numbers reported. For example, people who answered ``low" to the above question thought that on average their chances were 8 of 100, those who answered ``medium" 38 out of 100 and those who answered ``high" 60 of 100. In 1989, there was an attempt to quantify the magnitude of these chances with a follow-up question which was subsequently dropped, probably because of the seemingly unreasonable numbers reported. For example, people who answered ``low" to the above question thought that on average their chances were 8 of 100, those who answered ``medium" 38 out of 100 and those who answered ``high" 60 of 100.

20. Table 2. Women's Averages by Birth Cohort for Selected Years 20

21. Table 2. Women's Averages by Birth Cohort for Selected Years 21

22. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006) 22

23. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Number of Children by Birth Cohort 23

24. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Number of Children by Birth Cohort 24

25. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)FLP by Birth Cohort 25

26. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)FLP by Birth Cohort 26

27. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Male Labor Force Participation by Birth Cohort 27

28. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Male Labor Force Participation by Birth Cohort 28

29. Age-Period-Cohort Specifications Various flexible A-P-C specifications show the following parsimonious specification captures well the time trend in FLP Yit = a0+ a1T + a2T2 + a3 A + ?4A2 + Sj dj Bj + �gGit + �xXit + eit where Yit is the outcome of interest where T is time , A is age and Bj are the 8 birth cohort categories where Git are gender role attitudes that capture the saliency of traditional or egalitarian identities where Xiti individual characteristics that capture the identity-endowment (living in intact family, mother ever worked, religion at 16, etc.), identity-asset (education, children, married, divorced, etc.) variables For simplicity, the model is estimated with a Linear Probability Model, but corroborated by a Probit model 29

30. Table 3. Time-period, Life-cycle and Cohort Effects in Labor Market Participation

31. Yearly Averages and Time Trends in FLP

32. Gender Role Attitudes Unlike psychological variables, such as non-cognitive skills (e.g. the Rosenberg self-esteem scale), no consensus on how to measure gender role attitudes exists in the literature, perhaps in part because the questions vary by survey. Psychologists prefer to ask a number of questions (rather only one) aggregated in a �scale� whose validity can be assessed on three principles: convergent validity (a similar index should yield a similar assessment of the individual), stability (the index would yield a similar assessment if administered in a short time span), and reliability (answers to each question comprising the index should be highly correlated) Here two indexes are constructed and answers to each question scaled 1 to n were rescaled 1 to 0 using the formula (n-k)/(n-1) where n is the number of categories and k is the categorical integer, but multiplied by 100 in Table 1. 32

33. Gender Role Attitudes v In the NLS72, there a total of ten questions: 5 on traditional views and 5 on egalitarian attitudes 33

34. Gender Role Attitudes In the GSS, out of a total of eight questions on gender role attitudes, only four are asked in the 2000s 34

35. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006)Traditional Attitudes of Women  by Birth Cohort (FEFAM) 35

36. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Traditional Attitudes of Women by Birth Cohort 36

37. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Egalitarian Attitudes of Women by Birth Cohort 37

38. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Egalitarian Attitudes of Women by Birth Cohort 38

39. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPTable 4. Baseline Results � GSS 1977-2006 39

40. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPMain Linear Probability Model Results At -0.246 (0.022), the impact of traditional attitudes implies that the slight rise [0.028 (0.011)] in average traditional attitudes from 0.373 in 1994 to 0.401 in 2006 would account for a [(0.401-0.373)*-0.246*100] 0.7 percentage point decline in FLP. By comparison, the increase in years of schooling from 13.04 in 1994 to 13.12 in 2006 would have lead to an increase 0.18 percentage point. Importantly, the introduction of traditional attitudes reduces the magnitude of quadratic term of the time trend from -0.018 to -0.011, rendering it insignificant and comparable in point estimate to that of men. 40

41. Yearly Averages and Time Trends in FLP

42. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPTable 5. Single-Cohort Longitudinal Data �NLS72 42

43. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPInstrumental Variables Strategies In the GSS, questions about gender role attitudes and labor market decisions are asked contemporaneously, this raises the issue of possible biases associated with the avoidance of cognitive dissonance (Akerlof and Dickens, 1982). Letting , equation (1) can be rewritten as Cognitive dissonance generates an errors-in-variables, where denote the true attitudes. In the classical case, , this would lead to an attenuation bias in . 43

44. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPInstrumental Variables Strategies This issue is addressed using a double prong instrumental variables strategy with some instruments coming from the GSS and another instrument from a TS2SLS. The instruments from the GSS are answers to questions about the respondents� political views and attitudes towards sexual relations. These variables are correlated with gender role attitudes and are thought to impact labor market decisions only through attitudes toward whether women should work outside the home or not. 44

45. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLP Instrumental Variables Strategy The exact questions are: There's been a lot of discussion about the way morals and attitudes about sex are changing in this country. If a man and woman have sex relations before marriage, do you think it is always wrong, almost always wrong, wrong only sometimes, or not wrong at all? [VAR:PREMARSX] �We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. I'm going to show you a seven point scale on which the political views that people might hold are arranged from extremely liberal point 1 to extremely conservative point 7? Where would you place yourself on this scale?� [VAR:POLVIEWS] 45

46. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006) Premarital Sex Wrong - Women by Birth Cohort 46

47. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006)Premarital Sex Wrong - Women by Birth Cohort 47

48. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006)Liberal Political Views - Women by Birth Cohort 48

49. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Liberal Political Views - Women by Birth Cohort 49

50. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLP Table 6. 2SLS Results - GSS 1977-2006 50

51. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPTwo Sample 2-Stage Least Squares Variant In the usual case (Angrist and Krueger, 1991; Inoue and Solon, 2005) , both samples contain on the instruments. Here the instrument is available only in sample 2. So an estimate of the instrument in sample 1 has to be constructed. Let be the excluded instrument not available in sample 1 and let From each cross-section of sample 2 (the NHIS), I estimate where is a M-vector of age dummies. Stacking the estimates results in a M ? T matrix . 51

52. Subjective Risk of HIV/AIDS Women by Birth Cohorts NHIS 1988-2006 52

53. Subjective Risk of HIV/AIDS v vvWomen by Birth Cohorts NHIS 1988-2006 53

54. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPTwo Sample 2-Stage Least Squares An estimate of the subjective risk of HIV/AIDS is constructed as where is a T-vector of time dummies, assuming as in Inoue and Solon that . Writing the linear projection of included instruments onto , the residuals then net out the included instruments, and can be used as excluded instruments to identify and . In other words, the instrumentation relies on the fact that women of different ages at different time periods evaluated their chances of getting HIV/AIDS differently. 54

55. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLP Table 7. TS2SLS Results - GSS 1988-2006 55

56. Yearly Averages and Time Trends in FLP 56

57. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPAlternative Hypotheses I explored various alternative hypotheses Increase in divorce rates and attitudes toward divorce Social conservatism (attitudes toward premarital sex) Political conservatism Increased religiosity (church attendance, e.g. Glaeser and Sacerdote, 2007; bible inerrancy also tested, e.g. Sherkat, 2000) Cultural background (42 dummies on ethnic ancestry, e.g. Fernandez and Fogli (2005), Zaiceva and Zimmerman (2007)) Increasing rates of ill-health (morbid obesity, e.g. Cawley, 2004) 57

58. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Ever Divorced or Separated by Birth Cohort 58

59. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Ever Divorced or Separated by Birth Cohort 59

60. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1972-2006)Church Attendance by Birth Cohort 60

61. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006)Church Attendance by Birth Cohort 61

62. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPTable 8. Alternative Hypotheses 62

63. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLP Table 9. African-American Women 63

64. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006) Self-rated Health� White Women by Birth Cohort 64

65. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006) Self-rated Health� White Women by Birth Cohort 65

66. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006) Self-rated Health� BlackWomen by Birth Cohort 66

67. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1977-2006) Self-rated Health� African-American Women by Birth Cohort 67

68. Table A2. Time-period, Life-cycle and Cohort Effects in Self-rated Health 68

69. Gender Role Attitudes and African-American Women The possible cascade of effects from the HIV/AIDS crisis, to more negative attitudes towards premarital sex and less favorable egalitarian attitudes, to lower level of FLP would appear to have several weaker links among African-American women. Importantly, they are less likely to be married, Data from the 2006 March CPS reveals that 60 percent of white women are currently married, whereas the percentage among black women is 30 percent. In the GSS, the number are 62 percent for white women and 34 percent for black women in 2006, There appears to be a strong link between health and the evolution of FLP among black women, although it is not clear which health factor is at play here given the self-reported nature of the variable. 69

70. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPTable 10. Summary of Results by Subgroups 70

71. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPTable 10. Summary of Results by Subgroups 71

72. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLPTable 10. Summary of Results by Subgroups 72

73. Implications for Subjective Well-BeingGender Convergence in SWB among Labor Market Participants 73

74. Implications for Subjective Well-Being vThe Paradox of Declining Female Happiness 74

75. Conclusion This paper provides compelling evidence that beliefs about gender roles are an essential element of the analysis of the evolution of FLP over the latter part of the twentieth century. Gender role attitudes, whose secular trends reversed in the mid-1990s when the AIDS crisis peaked, are found to explain the recent leveling-off in FLP, while general cultural trends towards more conservative social, religious and political views do not. While this paper solves the puzzle of the gender differences of the evolution of LP, it seemingly seems to open another one. How are gender role attitudes formed? How can their evolution be explained? 75

76. Epidemiology of HIV/AIDS --- United States, 1981�2005 (CDC, 2006) v 76

77. AIDS Crisis in Canada:Number of cases reported 77

78. Use of Contraception in the U.S. 1982-2002 Source: Mosher et al. (2004) �Use of Contraception and Use of Family Planning Services in the United States: 1982-2002. Advance Data No. 350 78

79. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1988-2006)Risky Sexual Behavior - Women by Birth Cohort 79

80. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1988-2006)Risky Sexual Behavior - Women by Birth Cohort 80

81. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1988-2006)Risky Sexual Behavior - Men by Birth Cohort 81

82. Descriptive Evidence (GSS 1988-2006)Risky Sexual Behavior - Men by Birth Cohort 82

83. Descriptive Evidence vTraditional Attitudes of Women by Birth Cohort 83

84. Impact of Gender Role Attitudes on FLP Married Women 84