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INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal

CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen. INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal. Silvio Gualdi and Elisa Manzini. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen. Overall objectives:

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INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal

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  1. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . INGV-CMCC contribution to CLIMARES proposal Silvio Gualdi and Elisa Manzini

  2. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . Overall objectives: provide a set of short-term climate change projections performed with a global model that can be used both as boundary conditions for regional models and to perform climate change impact studies in the Arctic region use climate simulations to assess climate variability and the possible climate change signal in the Arctic region Two major tasks: Task 1: Representation of the troposphere-stratosphere interaction and its effects on the simulation of the Arctic climate Task 2: Improved initialization of the sea-ice in climate simulations

  3. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . • Work-plan: • Two streams of simulations will be performed: • Stream 1 (year 1): Short-term projections (1965-2035) performed with the high-horizontal resolution CMCC model, starting from available oceanic analysis and sea-ice initial conditions; • Stream 2 (year 2): Short-term projections (1965-2035) performed with the stratosphere resolving CMCC model, starting from improved oceanic and sea-ice initial conditions

  4. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . Observed GHGs & Aerosols Scenarios GHGs & Aerosols … … … … … 1990 2030 1960 2000 1965 1970 2005 2035 1995 The short-term projections performed with the CMCC global coupled model The experimental design (CMIP5 protocol) 30 years CMCC: Three-members ensembles with CMCC model. Ocean initial conditions from existing analyses.

  5. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . High-resolution, short-term (decadal) prediction experiments • Ensemble of integrations of the period 1965-2035 with start dates every 5 years (1965, 1970, …, 2005) and 3 member for each start date; • . • Oceanic initial conditions: Ocean Analysis (CMCC-INGV) with observed anomalies on top of model climatology; • . • Atmospheric ini. cond.: AMIP run; • . • Sea-Ice ini. cond.: Ocean Analysis for the sea-ice cover distribution and model climatology for the sea-ice thickness; • . • GHGs and aerosols from observations for 1965-2005 and from scenarios (according to CMIP5) for 2005-2035;

  6. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . ATMOSPHERE (dynamics, physics, prescribed gases and aerosols) ECHAM5 T159 - L31 Roeckner et al. (2006) T63-L95 (stratosphere resolving) (Manzini et al. 2006) Global Atmosphere COUPLER Oasis 3 Valcke et al. (2004) Heat Flux Water Flux Momentum Flux SST Sea-ice COUPLER OCEAN (dynamics and physics)NEMO/ORCA2 (Barnier et al.2006) SEA-ICE: LIM (Timmermann et al. 2005) Global Ocean & Sea-Ice High-resolution, short-term (decadal) prediction experiments The high resolution CMCC-MODEL

  7. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . OBS (HadISST) MODEL MODEL - OBS OBS (HadISST) MODEL MODEL - OBS Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation Mean SST 1951-2000 JFM JAS

  8. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation global mean sea-surface temperature

  9. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation OBS CMCC-MED SEA-ICE COVER JFM OBS CMCC-MED JAS

  10. CLIMARES meeting 22-23 October 2009, Bergen . Preliminary results from a 20th Century simulation OBS CMCC-MED SEA-ICE COVER JFM OBS CMCC-MED JAS

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