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One World–One Health: An Economic Perspective

One World–One Health: An Economic Perspective. Beyond Zoonoses: The Threat of Emerging Diseases to Human Security and Conservation, and the Implications for Public Policy James Newcomb Bio Economic Research Associates (bio era) November 15, 2004 Bangkok, Thailand.

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One World–One Health: An Economic Perspective

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  1. One World–One Health: An Economic Perspective Beyond Zoonoses: The Threat of Emerging Diseases to Human Security and Conservation, and the Implications for Public Policy James Newcomb Bio Economic Research Associates (bio era) November 15, 2004 Bangkok, Thailand ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  2. Economic Impact of Selected Infectious Diseases $50bn SARS China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Canada $30-50bn $40bn $30bn Foot & Mouth UK $25–30bn Estimated Cost $20bn Classical Swine Fever, Netherlands $2.3bn BSE Japan $1.5bn Avian Flu Asia, $5–10bn BSE UK, $10-13bn $10bn Foot & Mouth Taiwan, $5-8bn HPAI, Italy $400m BSE Canada $1.5bn BSE U.S., $3.5bn Nipah, Malaysia $350-400m Avian Flu, NL $500m 2004 2006 2003 2005 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 1994 1995 Figures are estimates and are presented as relative size. ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  3. Livestock Disease Economics ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  4. Livestock Disease Risks: Widening Concerns • Recent animal disease outbreaks have affected one-third of global meat exports (UN/FAO) • Economic impacts of major livestock disease outbreaks in the past 10 years exceed $80 billion • Concerns about human health risks of emerging infectious diseases are increasing (SARS, avian flu, Nipah virus) • Rapid growth of Asia’s livestock industries poses new challenges • Global trade and travel increase the interconnectedness of livestock producers worldwide • Pathogen exchanges with wildlife populations could be significant • Bioterrorism aimed at agricultural targets is possible ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  5. One World–One Health: An Economic Perspective • Inevitable Collisions: Projected Increases in Livestock Populations Will Create New Ecosystem Stresses • Network Dynamics: Highly Interconnected Systems Are Vulnerable to Epidemics • Policy Responses Must Take the Long View ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  6. Source: United Nations Secretariat, “World Population Prospects: 2002 Revision” ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  7. Meat Consumption and Income Trends 5 Philippines Log of per capita Con-sump-tion of Meat (1971- 1995 avg.) 4 China Trend 3 2 1 India 10 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 Log of per capita GNP (1971-95 avg.) ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  8. Source: IFPRI, “Livestock to 2020: The Next Food Revolution” FAO Annual Data. Total meat consumption for 1983 and 1993 are three-year moving averages. 2020 projections come from IFPRI’s global model, IMPACT ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  9. Projected Species Production 160 140 120 100 80 Million Metric Tons 60 40 20 1985 1979 1982 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 2018 2021 2024 2015 1964 1976 1961 1967 1970 1973 2009 2012 Pork Poultry Beef and Veal Misc. Mutton and Lamb Source: Center for Global Food Issues ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  10. Source: FAOSTAT ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  11. Source: FAOSTAT ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  12. Source: FAOSTAT ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  13. The Global Meat Trade is Highly Concentrated Source: Center for Global Food Issues ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  14. 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1977 1995 1997 1999 2001 1973 1975 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1991 1993 Percent of Global Meat Production Exported Source: Center for Global Food Issues ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  15. Network Theory Offers Important New Tools for Analyzing and Managing Disease Risks • Network models (scale-free, small world, urban, etc.) give fundamental new insights into epidemiology • Scale-free networks are especially vulnerable, but can be made more robust by focusing control measures at hubs • Network theory has significant practical applications in understanding and managing livestock diseases through application of “contact tracking” to identify hubs ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  16. Poisson distribution Power-law distribution Exponential Network Scale-free Network ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  17. ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  18. Emerging Infectious Diseases: What Are the Linkages Among Wildlife, Domestic Animals and Humans? • Fundamental forces are driving new infection disease threats for livestock • Avian influenza poses especially large potential risks • Emerging diseases are causing significant economic disruptions Source:Daszak, Cunningham, and Hyatt, Science, January 2000 ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

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  22. Control and Mitigation Methods Are Evolving Quickly • Mass culling has been effective, but at very high cost • Trade embargoes are crude tools to control disease • New monitoring and detection systems are being put in place • Vaccination is now being used, but evolutionary implications are unknown • Rapid testing technologies have been developed • Changes in livestock practices are being explored ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  23. Institutional Responses to Avian Flu: Recommendations of OIE/CDC/WHO • Surveillance and separation systems to limit contact between wild birds and poultry • Strategies to ensure the purity of drinking water supplies for poultry • Tight control measures over livestock movement in affected areas • Bird-proofing of poultry sheds to prevent contact between wild birds, especially migrating waterfowl, and poultry • Protection for workers during culling operations including protective clothing and vaccinations • Financial support for losses incurred by farmers culling their flocks • Endorsement of vaccination strategies as complement to culling ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  24. Sustainable Long-Term Solutions May Require Innovative Science and Policy • Breed livestock for disease resistance • Produce animal vaccines in feed grains • Implement advanced monitoring and detection systems for livestock • Develop global wildlife health surveillance network ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

  25. One World–One Health ©2004 bio-era Bio Economic Research Associates

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