2009 1 st Registration Period Analysis

1. 2009 1st Registration Period Analysis Presented at Registration Workshop 7 May 2009 Prof George Subotzky Executive Director: Information & Strategic Analysis

2. Acknowledgements The follow DISA staff members provided invaluable help and support in preparing the background information and this presentation: • Herbert Zemann • Herman Visser • Pamela Pistorius

3. Preface • Welcome this engagement with registrations operations • This kind of interaction is a feature of our emerging BI Framework • At the heart of BI is actionable intelligence • As part the cycle of strategic management (planning, implementation, review and change), this is gathered and analysed in order and manage organisational performance with the aim of achieving strategic and operational goals, objectives and targets • Part of this is interpreting and understanding trends with a view to improving operations, service delivery and client satisfaction • This aim is best served as a joint initiative between operational and strategic roleplayers

4. Introduction • 2009 registration process significantly different from previous years • Key dates, 1st Registration Period, 2008-9:

5. Changing Registration Patterns in 2009 • Due to the changes in the registration process, in particular the requirement that all new students must apply prior to registration, registration dates and patterns in 2009 were significantly different from previous years. This makes comparative analysis very tricky. • Although the 2009 1st Registration Period commenced two weeks earlier than last year for personal/Internet registrations, very few registrations occurred during this period (around 2 430) and only picked up after 8 December when walk-in registrations commenced. • Therefore, 60-day period until closing date of 22 January for Semester 1 registrations effectively reduced to 46 days

6. Changing Registration Patterns in 2009 • The 9 January 2009 deadline for new registrations appears to have caught many new students by surprise. It can therefore be anticipated that more new students will register during the 2nd Registration Period. Indications are that this is indeed the case. • Closing date of 22 January for Semester 1 registrations may have precluded many students from being able to provide initial fee payments before the end of January payday • Operational challenges at CAO and Unisa resulted in a large backlog, which took some time to be cleared

7. Challenges for analysis • Significant process changes in 2009 make comparisons very tricky • At least three ways of comparing, all of which provide different perspectives: • Comparable dates (preferred) • Comparable registration weeks (informative) • Comparable registration days • All figures refer to provisional formal Headcounts. Final HEMIS active student Headcounts are uniformly lower

8. Total Formal & Non-Formal Registrations Processed 2006-2009 to Date (incl. Temps)

9. Total Formal & Non-Formal Registrations Processed,2006-2009 to Date • In 2009 to date, a total of 333 764 formal and non-formal registrations have been processed. This represents an increase over previous years, as this total is already close to the 2008 total of 359 298 formal and non-formal registrations processed. • These figures give some indication of the huge operational challenges facing Unisa in registering its vast and increasing student complement annually.

10. Formal & Non-Formal Enrolments, 2006-8 and 2009 to date

11. 2009 1st Registration Period Enrolments, Compared to 2008

12. 2009 1st Registration PeriodEnrolments, Compared to 2008 • During the 1st Registration Period in 2009, which closed on 3 April, a total of 246 242 students registered, compared to 256 168 during the 1st Registration Period in 2008. This represents a decline of around 10 000 enrolments. • As indicated, many new students may have been precluded from registering thus far because of the new application requirements.

13. However, an analysis of Zimbabwean student enrolments shows that between 2008 and 2009 there was an overall decline of 7 387. This was the combined result of a decline of 7 533 Zimbabwean students resident in Zimbabwe, a small increase of 248 in Zimbabwean students resident in South Africa and a small decline of 102 among those resident elsewhere. • Accordingly, almost 75% of the decline of 10 000 enrolments between the 2008 in 2009 1st Registration Periods can be explained by the drop in Zimbabwean students. However, with the reinstatement of exam venues in Zimbabwe, more Zimbabwean students resident in that country can be expected to register during the 2nd Registration Period.

14. 1st Registration Period Enrolments by Weekly Total, 2008-9

15. 1st Registration Period Course countsby Tuition Period, 2008-9

16. S1, S2 & Y Course Counts, 1st Registration Period, 2008 and 2009 to date

17. S1, S2 & Y Course Counts, 1st Registration Period, 2008-9 to date

18. S1, S2 & Y Course Counts, 1st Registration Period, 2008-9 to date • The ongoing semesterisation of courses at Unisa had a major impact on the pattern of registrations during the 1st Registration Period in 2009. As can be seen, there was a significant increase in the total number of course counts in 2009 during the 1st Registration Period compared to last year (1 035 156 vs 974 097). • In combination with the decline of around 10 000 enrolments between 2009 and 2008 discussed above, this represents an increase in the average course load from 3,79 in 2008 to 4,20 in 2009. One possible reason for this is that students registering via self-help received less guidance and, correspondingly, unilaterally increased their own course load. This may have implications on Unisa's overall success and throughput rates.

19. S1, S2 & Y Course Counts, 1st Registration Period, 2008-9 to date • Significantly, as a result of the ongoing semesterisation, the proportion of enrolments in year-long and Semester 1 courses shifted dramatically between 2008 and 2009 (from 63,2% and 28,6% to 45,2% and 42,2% respectively). • In addition, the number and proportion of Semester 2 enrolments during the 1st Registration Period in 2009 also increased dramatically over the last year (from 8,2% or 79 809 to 12,6% or 130 386). This is probably the combined result of students increasingly simultaneously registering for Semester 1 & 2 on the one hand and, as indicated, new students who missed the 9 January deadline for new applicants registering for Semester 2 courses.

20. Formal Registrations by College, 2006-2009 to Date

21. Formal Registrations by College, 2006-2009 to Date • Strong growth is evident in CHS, where enrolments to date have already exceeded last year's total. To a lesser extent, enrolments in CSET and CAES have also increased and are approaching last year's total. As courses in the CEMS are highly semesterised, many 2nd Registration Period enrolments can be expected in that college. • These up to now unmanaged enrolment trends will have to be carefully negotiated and managed as part of Unisa's forthcoming enrolment planning process.

22. Formal Registration by Race, 2006-2009 to Date

23. Formal Registration by Race, 2006-2009 to Date • The distribution of 2009 enrolments to date by race is almost identical to that of 2008, with 64% Africans, 22% white, 9% Indian and 6% Coloured. Significantly, the proportion of African students increased from 58% in 2006, while that of whites declined from 26%. • In order to determine whether these trends reflect greater equity of access and success, these aggregate figures need to be disaggregated by qualification level and field of study as well as by success and throughput rates.

24. Formal Registrations by Gender, 2006-2009 to Date

25. Formal Registrations by Gender, 2006-2009 to Date • By contrast, the proportion of women in 2009 to date increased to 59,9% of the total. Correspondingly, the proportion of males declined to 40,1%. Since 2006, the ratio of females to males has been steady increasing. As indicated above, these aggregated figures must be disaggregated in order to identify underlying inequalities.

26. Formal Registrations by Age Group, 2006-2009 to Date

27. Formal Registrations by Age Group, 2006-2009 to Date • The analysis of registrations by age group reveals increases in the above-40 age groups. Correspondingly, a decline is evident in the proportion of the below-29 age groups. • This represents a counter trend to previous years. It remains to be seen whether these trends continue in future. Either way, this has a significant bearing on teaching and learning support practices.

28. Provisional and HEMIS Enrolments, 2006-9

29. Provisional and HEMIS Enrolments, 2006-9 • As can be seen, provisional enrolments in 2008 increased by 8,49% over 2007 (285 206 vs 262 873). • The preliminary total (active and non-active) HEMIS headcount in 2008 increased by 6,45% over 2007 (270 527 vs 254 136). • However, the preliminary active only HEMIS headcount increased by 9,47% (262 038 vs 239 380). This increased proportion was the result of an increased active student rate in 2008 (96,86% vs 94,19%). • Significantly, the preliminary active only HEMIS headcount of 262 038 exceeds the 2010 ministerial total enrolment target for Unisa of 258 013. Clearly, careful enrolment planning will be required as well as negotiations with the DoE in order to avoid carrying unfunded students on the one hand and restricting enrolments which is counter to Unisa's social mandate on the other

30. Summary of emerging trends • A decline of just under 10 000 Headcounts was evident in the 2009 1st Registration Period compared to 2008 (246 168 vs 255 963) • Around 75% of this decline can be accounted for by the drop in Zimbabwean student registrations in Zimbabwe • The higher S2 registrations to date (127 617 vs 79 701 in 2008) indicate that the final enrolments for 2009 may yet exceed last year’s as we can expect increased registrations during the 2nd Registration Period • 2009 course counts to date (1 035 156) already exceed the 2008 total for the 1st Registration Period (974 097). This indicates a trend towards a higher average course load in 2009 (4,20 vs 3,79 in 2008) – which may impact negatively on success and throughput

31. Summary of emerging trends • A significant shift is evident in the number and proportion of course counts by tuition period: with significantly fewer Y1s and significantly more S1s and S2s as the result of semesterisation • Particular growth is evident in CHS in 2009 to date • No shift in the student profile by race is evident between 2009 to date and 2008, with Africans constituting 64% of the total, whites 22%, Indians 9% and Coloureds 6% • The proportion of women grew by 2% between 2008 to date from 57,7% to 59,7% • A slight increase in the proportion of older students (30 years and above) is evident in 2009 to date. This may be offset in the final figures by the greater number of first-time entering students who may still register for the 2nd semester, having missed the 9 January deadline for applications

32. Summary of emerging trends • The preliminary (2nd submission mission) HEMIS active total for 2008 (262 – up 9,13%) already exceeds the 2010 Ministerial target (258 013) • Overall, it can be expected that total provisional enrolments for 2009 and, correspondingly, HEMIS enrolments for 2009 will increase over 2008. Indications from the Central Admissions Office are that around 10 000 applications from new students have already been processed for the 2nd Registration Period. • DOE has indicated a more flexible approach regarding targets. However, as HE allocations are made on a 3-year rolling basis according to the MTEF, any enrolments above approved target will not be subsidised. • Any appeal for further higher education funding will have to have Treasury approval. The extent to which this may be considered in the Zuma government remains to be seen.