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Chapter 13: Collecting Statistical Data. Sections 13.1-13.2: Population and Sampling. Some Important Terms. Population Collection of objects/individuals to which the statistical statement refers N-value = the number of objects/individuals in the population Sample
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Some Important Terms • Population • Collection of objects/individuals to which the statistical statement refers • N-value = the number of objects/individuals in the population • Sample • The subgroup chosen to provide the data • Should be representative of the population
Target Population/Sampling Frame • Target population = the population for which the survey applies • Sampling frame (aka accessible population) = the actual subset of the population from which the sample will be drawn
Sampling • Convenience sampling • The sample is chosen based on what is easiest, cheapest and most accessible • May not be representative of the population • Quota sampling • Forces the sample to be representative of a population through the use of quotas • The sample should have so many men, women, children, blacks, whites, Hispanics, etc.
The 1948 Presidential Election • Read Case Study 3 on p. 503-504 • What is the flaw in quota sampling?
Section 13.3: Random Sampling Usually the best method of sampling
Simple Random Sampling • We put the name of each individual in the sample in a hat, mix the names well and draw randomly until we have N individuals. (And by “hat”, I mean computer.) • Expensive and difficult to put into effect
Stratified Sampling • Break the sampling frame into categories (called strata) and then randomly choose a sample from these strata. • Example: Read Case Study 4 on p. 506
Vocabulary • Statistic: any kind of numerical information drawn from a sample • Parameter: numerical information we would like to have • Sampling error: difference between a parameter and a statistic used to estimate that parameter
Vocabulary (continued) • Chance error: the result of the basic fact that a sample can only give us approximate information about the population • Sample bias: the result of choosing a bad sample – a very serious problem!
Vocabulary (continued) • Sampling proportion: tells us that the size of the sample is intended to be x% of the population • n/N where n = the size of the sample, and N = the size of the population
Example 13.4.1: Telephone Poll • The city of Cleansburg has 8325 registered voters. There is an election for mayor of Cleansburg, and there are three candidates for the position: Smith, Jones and Brown. The day before the election, a telephone poll of 680 randomly selected registered voters produced the following results: 306 people surveyed indicated that they would vote for Smith, 272 indicated that they would vote for Jones, and 102 indicated that they would vote for Brown.
Example 13.1.1 (Continued) • What is the population for this poll? • What is the sample? • Describe the sampling method used. • Give the sampling proportion. • Give the sample statistic estimating the percentage of the vote going to Smith. • If in the actual election Smith received 42% of the votes, Jones 43%, and Brown 15%, find the sampling errors.
Section 13.5: The Capture-Recapture Method Method for estimating the N-value of a population
Example 13.5.1: Small Fish in Big Pond • A large pond is stocked with catfish. As part of a research project we need to estimate the number of catfish in the pond. An actual head count is out of the question, so our best bet is the capture-recapture method.
Capture-Recapture Method • Capture: Capture a sample of size n1, mark the objects and release them back into the general population. • Recapture: After a certain period of time, capture a new sample of size n2 and take an exact head count of the marked objects. Call this number k. • Estimate: The N-value of the population can be estimated to be approximately
Example 13.5.2: Cancer Registry • In a study in the Netherlands, suppose that a sample of 100 people who were known to have cancer were selected. Then, a sample of 50 people from a nearby laboratory was taken and, out of that sample, 7 of them had cancer. Use the capture-recapture method for this problem. • What information does this give you about the number of people who have cancer?
Capture-Recapture Method Accused of Being Misleading • Assignment due at the end of class: Research on the Internet reasons that the Capture-Recapture Method is useful and reasons that it can be misleading. Write at least 8 sentences about the usefulness of the Capture-Recapture method, and support your reasons with examples. Cite your source(s).
Section 13.6: Clinical Studies Establish connections between cause and effect
Examples of Clinical Study Topics • Does taking more math classes increase your chances of getting paid a higher salary? • Does repeated exposure to secondhand smoke increase your chances of getting lung cancer? • Do daily doses of aspirin reduce your chances of a heart attack?
Association is not causation • Just because two things are related does not mean that one causes the other. • Students who got high grades in English also got high grades in Math. • Breast cancer was more commonly found in women who received regular breast cancer screenings. • As ice cream sales increase, so do deaths by drowning.
“Statistics show that of those who contract the habit of eating, very few survive.” -Wallace Irwin
Case Study 5: The Alar Scare • On pages 509-510
Clinical Studies • Concerned with determining whether a single variable (usually a vaccine, drug, therapy, etc.) can cause a certain effect (a disease, symptom, cure, etc.) • Controlled study: two groups are compared • Control group: subjects not receiving treatment • Treatment (or experimental) group: subjects receiving treatment • What characteristics do you think should be considered to create an accurate controlled study?
The Placebo Effect • The idea of receiving treatment (not actually receiving treatment) can produce positive results. • Placebo: a make-believe form of a treatment (like a sugar pill, an injection of saline, etc.) • Controlled placebo study: The members of the control group are given a placebo
Case Study 6: The 1954 Salk Polio Vaccine Field Trials • Double-blind study: Neither the subjects nor the researchers know which subjects are in the treatment group and which are in the control group. • On pages 511-512
Assignment • Due at the end of class • P. 522 #73: An article in the Providence Journal about automobile accident fatalities includes the following observation: “Forty-two percent of all fatalities occurred on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, apparently because of increased drinking on the weekends.” • Give a possible argument as to why the conclusion drawn may not be justified by the data. • Give a different possible argument as to why the conclusion drawn may be justified by the data.