Effect of interventions in vehicular sector on air quality

1. Effect of interventions in vehicular sector on air quality TERI, New Delhi

2. Scope

3. Traffic congestion and pollution

4. Older fleets

5. Sprawling cities

6. Smaller cities- even less managed

7. Upcoming cities-Panjim

8. Different types and usage of vehicles • Unregistered vehicles • Overloading • Limited maintenance

9. Debate Contribution of vehicular sector Which vehicles for which pollutants Road map for future norms Effect on air quality

10. Are the current BS norms enough to meet air quality standards ? Do we need to continually advance them ? What is the effect of introducing better quality fuel in India and its cities ?

11. TERI integrated modellingapproach Objective : To study the impact of improvement of fuel quality and vehicular emission norms in India on the ambient air quality, and subsequently on the human health Sumit Sharma, Suresh Jain, C Sitalakshami, Richa Mahtta, Anju Goel, Atul Kumar, Divya Datt, Seema Kundu, Prateek Sharma , TERI, New Delhi

12. Vehicle-wise energy consumption and projections (2010-2030)

13. Scenario analysis

14. Effect of advancement of vehicular emission norms

15. Reduction in PM2.5 conc. (ALT-IV-2030)

16. Avoided mortalities- ALT-IV scenario

17. Benefits could be larger .. • Health impacts of only PM • NOx, CO, VOCs and O3 may additionally or synergistically aggravate the impacts • Agricultural impacts of Ozone and other pollutants • Climate benefits are additional • Reduction in PM will reduce black carbon concentrations too

18. City level analysis SumitSharma, V. Ramanathan • Aim- To assess the improvement in air quality due to interventions in transport sector • City: Bangalore • Air quality model – CMAQ • Emission inventory – Source apportionment study (2x2 km²) • PM, NOx, CO, SO2, VOCs • Meteorological fields – WRF models runs • Boundary conditions- from National scale runs • Period – December, 2010 (to assess worst season air quality)

19. Emission Inventory – Source apportionment study • Total pollution load • PM10 - 54.4 T/d • NOX – 217.4 T/d • SO2 – 14.6 T/d

20. Air quality modelling- Dec, 2010 (baseyear) Widespread violation of PM2.5 standard in Bangalore

21. Model comparison

22. Future projections • Future year 2030 • Growth assessed based on city development plans, mobility plans • Annual growth of 3-4% assumed based on projected demands • Domestic sector projections based on population growth • Rest other emissions assumed to be same as current • BAU scenario • Transport sector emissions remained almost same as current levels • Introduction of BS-IV norms negated the growth in emissions caused by incerased number of vehicles • ALT scenario • BS-VI introduced from 2020 • Transport sector emissions reduced by 50%.

23. Future projections : Effect on air quality • 20% reduction in PM2.5 concentrations • Many areas start meeting the standards

24. Future projections : EC also reduced . may affect the local climate

25. Conclusions • Uniform fuel quality ‘One country, one fuel and one standard’ in India helps in reducing emissions • Effects of advancing the norms are substantial at both National and urban scales • A city like Bangalore, can achieve the standards with introduction of advanced norms.

26. Thanks