State of the Analysis Community Jim Bexfield OSD/PA&E Director, Study Analytic Support Division 9 May 2007

1. State of the Analysis Community Jim Bexfield OSD/PA&E Director, Study Analytic Support Division 9 May 2007 v4-2

2. Agenda • About the Community • Business Plan, Challenges and some Initiatives • How we can work together

3. More Theater / Campaign Analysis Domain Mission System Engineering Less What We Do • We perform analysis to support • senior level defense decisions (e.g., planning, programming, and acquisition) • the operational commander (e.g., assess plans) Joint Focus

4. What We Do Force Planning Construct (source: 2006 QDR) Much of what we do involves assessing DoD’s ability to implement the Defense Strategy

5. Examples of Decisions We Inform • What capabilities do we need to find and neutralize WMD? (Catastrophic Study) • What capabilities do we need to execute our war on terror strategy? (GWOT X-Game) • What is the best mix of tactical air forces? (Joint Air Dominance Study) • What is the best composition (number, mix, and characteristics) of the future tanker fleet? (Tanker Analysis of Alternatives) • What capabilities does DoD need to support civil authorities when responding to a domestic disaster? (Homeland Defense Study) • Are our projected future forces sufficient to meet the defense strategy? (Operational Availability Studies) Shape Leadership Decisions and actions: Help DoD invest and use its scarce resources wisely.

6. Who We Are Navy (N81) Air Force (A9) Marines (MCCDC) Army (CAA, G3, G8) Analysis Community Joint Staff (J4, J5, J7, J8) OSD (PA&E, Policy, P&R, AT&L, NII, Intel…) Defense Agency (DIA, NSA, DISA, DTRA) COCOM

7. How we manage our Community: The Analytic Agenda DoD-wide agreement to make joint analysis efforts more effective, efficient, and relevant • Based in Current Year (COCOM – operational planning of current forces) • Based in Future Years (Services, JS, and OSD – capability assessments of future forces) • Improved Tools • Coordinate development • Focus on hard to model areas • Promote good M&S practices • Encourage reuse • Improved Data • Common starting point for analysis • Better transparency and consistency • Faster analysis using analysis-ready data sets • Improved Transparency • Increase awareness of completed and ongoing analysis • Reduce redundancy, increase synergism

8. Programmers, OPSDEPs Analytic Agenda Governance Deputy’s Advisory Working Group (DAWG) Policy, PA&E, JS Joint Analytic Data Management Steering Committee (JADM SC) Policy, PA&E, JS Analysis Community Stakeholders (OSD, Joint Staff, COCOMs, Services)

9. Analytic Agenda Productshttps://jds.pae.osd.mil Managed by Joint Data Support (JDS) on behalf of the analytic community Data Tools Studies Components are expected to use Analytic Agenda products when conducting analyses supporting their planning, programming, and acquisition activities

10. Analysis M&S Tool Registry • Collection of tools, documentation, data, and model POCs: • Focus on tools in use or in development (government sponsored) • Includes information on user groups and recent uses with study POCs • Benefits: • Promotes collaboration among model users • Encourages reuse • Provides senior leadership visibility of investments DoD wide • Access via: • JDS Classified Website (SIPR): https://jds.pae.osd.smil.mil • If you do not have SIPR access: Contact JDS at jdsWebmaster@osd.mil Provides Visibility, Accessibility and Traceability of Analysis Community’s M&S Tools

11. Collaboration and Outreach • Wiki and Forum sites on: • Scenario Development • Insurgency and Counterinsurgency (COIN) Analysis • Irregular Warfare Analysis • Access via classified website at: • forum url: https://jdsforums.pae.osd.smil.mil • wiki url: https://jdstest.pae.osd.smil.mil/jdswiki

12. Keeping the Community Informed (Examples) • A professional society, The Military Operations Research Society (MORS) [includes DoD, Industry, and Academia] • Annual Symposium in June • 4-5 workshops each year (recent examples): • Analysis of Non-Traditional Security Challenges: Methods & Tools • Agent-Based Models & Analytical Tools in support of Stability Ops • Publications: Newsletter (PHALANX), Journal, and professional books • Joint Collaboration Analysis Conference (JCAC) • Semi-annual (spring, fall): led by Joint Staff • Focused on combatant commander analysis needs and capabilities

13. Agenda • About the Community • Business Plan, Challenges and some Initiatives • How we can work together

14. Analysis Community Business Plan • Background • Scope (e.g., Who is in the community?) • Vision (e.g., Where do you want to be in 2026 with respect to methods, tools, data, intellectual capability, and research?) • Current capabilities (e.g., Where are you now for the same elements?) • Management • Governance (membership, organizations, decision making process, resources) • Sharing of information, intra- and inter-community • Needs and Initiatives • Key gaps (e.g., significant shortfalls in methods, tools, data, intellectual capital, research) • Key on-going and proposed activities • Goals, products, schedule • Characterize funding/ Level of Effort (if possible) • A prioritized list of projects to pursue Currently in-review by the community

15. Paradigm Shift New Paradigm: Broad Range of Operations Old Paradigm: MCO Focus War 2 Peak MCO demand Short Duration Surge War 1 Demand Demand Long Surge Steady State MCO Stability Ops Routine Ops + WOT Lesser Contingencies Time Time Homeland Defense Homeland Defense DoD “built” to support two nearly simultaneous major theater wars Transformed DoD must address traditional, irregular, catastrophic, and disruptive challenges New Focus: Develop the tools needed to analyze a broader range of global challenges

16. Some Gaps Identified in the Plan • Traditional (Conventional Warfare): • Ability to analyze a balanced view of traditional warfare • Ability to capture the value of enabling capabilities (e.g., C4ISR, Logistics) • Irregular/Catastrophic/Disruptive (ICD) Challenges • Understanding Human Behavior as it applies to military operations associated with the War on Terror • Credible tools and data to analyze the war on terror and other irregular warfare challenges • Credible tools and data to analyze Stability, Security, Transition and Reconstruction operations

17. Some Initiatives that Address Gaps • Storm /Storm Plus– new Air Force campaign model with enhanced naval functionality for better balance (Air Force & Navy) • Lebanon-Hezbollah Conflict Study – inform analysis approaches for land combat(Army) • Unclassified Defense Planning Scenarios – support work with allies(Joint Staff) • Human Behavior Research for M&S – Better understanding of social/cultural, psychological, political, economic, information operation domains (PA&E) • Military-Focused Irregular Warfare Model (Navy) • VV&A of Agent Based Models (Marine Corps) • GWOT X-Game Study – Used wargame technology in analysis (PA&E)

18. Interlinking Initiatives to Address a Gap GAP: Credible tools and data to analyze the war on terror and other irregular warfare challenges Initiatives GWOT X-Game GWOT Analysis VV&A of Agent Based Models Military- focused Irregular Warfare Model PMESII/DIMEFIL* Models & Tools Underlying Social Science Knowledge Human Behavior Research for M&S *PMESII-Political, Military, Economic, Social, Infrastructure, and Information DIMEFIL – Diplomacy, Intelligence, Military, Economics, Finance, Information, and Law Enforcement

19. Agenda • About the Community • Business Plan, Challenges and some Initiatives • How we can work together

20. What we are trying to do • Increase the collaboration among analytical organizations developing and using tools • Facilitate understanding of emerging challenge areas • Reduce unnecessary redundancy in M&S research, development and use • Provide the best available data, subject to security caveats, to the analyst using the model • Promote the appropriate use of M&S • Ensure a strong cadre of analysts are properly trained in the use of M&S …Help the Department conduct better analysis

21. How we can work together • Take advantage of our products • Data • M&S tool registry • Collaboration forums • Help us improve analysis M&S • Share your ideas on how to solve our challenges - GWOT, Countering WMD . . . • Send your experts to participate in our workshops (e.g., MORS – www.mors.org) • Tell us about your capabilities • For more information contact: • Terence Peterson, Modeling & Simulation Coordination Office (M&S CO), (terence.peterson.ctr@osd.mil) • Bill Sentlinger, Joint Data Support (JDS), (billy.sentlinger.ctr@osd.mil)

22. Backup

23. A Few Examples • Traditional campaign modeling • Ability to assess the impact of Command and Control at the campaign level • Improved linkage of logistics to warfight results • Non Traditional Warfare (NTW) • Understand phenomenology • Develop measures of merit that include risk • Develop a robust set of NTW scenarios for analysis • Develop analytical approaches to assess the national planning scenarios • Explore new ways to “model” adaptive adversary behavior (cultural modeling)

24. A Few Examples (cont.) • Visibility, use, and access to services/data • Develop ability to translate operational data into M&S • Develop automated methods to link models from feeder models into campaign model inputs • Identify and implement improved data validity schema • Identify an appropriate migration path to future computing environments (e.g., Global Information Grid) • Identify ways technology can enhance our ability to perform analysis & verify, understand, & manipulate data • Better methods for capabilities analysis (e.g. top-down portfolios tools with multiple levels of zoom)

25. 1. Political Does political reform increase or decrease terrorism? 2. Economic What is the relationship between economic opportunity and terrorism? 4. Psychological What psychological factors encourage or discourage terrorist behavior? 6. Integration What are the integration issues in an inter-disciplinary GWOT model? 3. Social/Cultural What social or cultural ties do terrorist organizations use to gain new recruits? 5. IO/Communication What activities and messages affect views of the US and of al Qaeda? Research Initiative (Continued): Understanding Human Behavior

26. DoD’s Evolving Analytical Challenge Increasing complexity of the new strategic environment New Focus: Addresses a broader range of global challenges