Energy Sources and Outlook in the PNW: Pros, Cons, and Future Roles

1. PNW ENERGY • What are the sources of energy for and in the PNW? • What are the uses, the pros, and the cons of each source? • What is the outlook for non-hydro-renewables? • What are the current and future roles of the PNW in the North American energy economy?

2. A few concepts… • Fossil fuels • Solar-based energy sources • Stocks • Flows

3. Criteria for energy resource analysis: • Market price • Regional sourcing autonomy: helps local job and tax base. Foreign supply is strategic issue. • Social and environmental externalities when production/utilization of a resource reduces social utility or environmental health of the general population (subjective) total cost = market price + externalities examples: health impacts, habitat degradation, crop injury, climate change • Reliability & stability of supply • Market price predictability, stability • Decentralization of production/generation superior to centralized production (security, terrorism) • Projected reserves/long-term supply limitations • other

4. What are the sources of energy for the PNW? • Hydroelectricity: ~37-43% of energy use., and ~83% of electricity generated. Exported to US SW in spring, summer, imports electricity in winter. Pros: locally produced, no air pollution, low “cost”, some flex. in timing of gen. to blend with intermittent renewable sources (“firming”) Cons: little growth likely, anadromous fish impacts, centralized production • Petroleum: ~38-42% of consumption, dom. for transportation. Pros: was “cheapest” source for transportation, excluding externalities Cons: sourced outside of region, US strategic issues, air pollutant • Natural Gas: >15% of cons., dominantly in industrial, home heating, electricity. Recent hydraulic fracturing breakthroughs have expanded N. American reserves, supply. Price down since 2009 Pros: cleaner than coal, cogeneration practical, can be decentralized for electricity generation, but generally isn’t, used for firming intermittent power streams from wind, solar. (the bridge fuel)

5. PNW Sources of Energy (cont) • Coal: ~3% PNW energy, most from MT, WY. Mostly used to fire electricity plants (baseload). Plant in Boardman, OR Pros: High stability of price, low market cost ~3-4 cents/kw-hr, US projected reserves > 100 yrs. Cons: bad air pollutant, limited regional supply • Nuclear: ~2% regional energy cons., centralized production, high predictability of supply, used for baseload, no theoretical supply limitation, pollution/externalities??? Uses large amounts of water. • Conservation: reduces need to develop new supplies Pros: in theory, can be integrated quickly, non-polluting, lowest cost way to meet energy needs Cons: Jevon’s paradox • Non-hydro renewables (con’t)

6. Non-Hydro Renewables • Biomass • wood and waste • biodiesel • ethanol • Local potential for poplar trees is large • Wind – Pros: 4-5 cents/kw-hr., could become ~20+% of average NW grid load, some sold in fixed price future contracts, clean, improves rural employment & tax base, no fuel cost Cons: intermittent, considered visual nuisance by some, large investment up front, bird mortality • Geothermal (baseload electricity & heating) • Solar Thermal, Photovoltaic (PV), Passive Solar • PV ~9-25 cents/kw-hr. & ↓ • Oceanic (Wave and Tidal)

7. Wave Energy (con’t.) • high energy density • higher energy availability (80-90% of the time) • higher predictability • seasonal cycle is good fit with current PNW supply and demand (has winter max., while natural hydroelectric is winter minimum) • most of US pop. lives <50 miles from coasts