Pullias Center for Higher Education

1. Pullias Center for Higher Education The Disruption of Higher Education in California: Inevitable Decline or Building on Excellence William G. Tierney, Ph.D. University Professor Director, Pullias Center for Higher Education University of Southern California

2. The Situation

3. The Goal “By 2020, America will again have the highest proportion of college graduates in the world.” –Barack Obama, February 2009

4. Capacity If we were to meet Obama and others’ projections, California needs approximately one million additional entrants in the postsecondary sector by 2020. California Public Higher Education Enrollment & Trends

5. Forecast Public higher education had approximately 250,000 fewer students in the system, but the state should have 100,000 more students.

6. Current & Projected Higher Education in California

7. Marx Meets Capitalism

8. Studies Projecting Shortfalls in Educated Workers in California

9. The fastest growing sector in postsecondary education is the for-profit sector, which accounts for roughly 10% of the total. (The private non-profit and for-profit share in California is 16%.)

10. Problems

12. Secondary (high school) issues endangering capacity

13. High schools which have upwards of 40% attrition rates—dropout factories

14. Students who graduate from high school and are not college-ready—60% of CSU students need to take at least one remedial class. • High schools which have college-going rates of less than 60%.

15. Postsecondary issues endangering capacity/completion rates

16. Community College Transfers

17. Application processes • Temporal structure (graduation=4 years)

18. Course sequencing and duplication • Graduation requirements (credit hours and seat time) • Funding of institutions (not students) • Partial definition of who helps solve the problem (i.e., public institutions)

19. Disruptive Solutions

23. Where we are headed and what will happen:

24. Learning will be speeded up—summers, weekends, 24/7

26. Professors will no longer be a proxy for learning—learning will be tied to outcomes. • College will start sooner—senior year in high school, no summer slump, more students will need to be college-ready.

27. College admission will be automatic—applying to 12th grade and 13th. • Transfers has to be synthetic which suggests greater synthesis. • Blended learning will be the norm.

28. Students • Students do not apply to a CSU; they automatically are admitted if they have met requirements (unless the campus is impacted). • Students begin college in January of their senior year and continue taking classes through the summer.

29. Incentives • Incentive funding is created for postsecondary organizations that will aggressively build and offer on-line degrees.

30. Community College • A community college has one function: it either trains students for certificates and the AA degree or it is a branch of a CSU or UC; transfer is eliminated.

31. UC • Three UC campuses become “honor campuses” where research follows teaching. • UC campuses are encouraged to become private non-profit institutions.

32. Distributions & Graduation • Distribution requirements are almost eliminated and student plans for graduation are clear, direct, succinct, and achievable in four years (or less). • Graduation is predicated on what is learned rather than the accumulation of credit hours or seat-time.

33. Non-Disruptive Solutions • Private (non-profit and for-profit) postsecondary institutions are seen as collaborators for increasing capacity. Rather than build new campuses the state looks to the private sector as a more efficient way to maximize tax dollars. A joint council is created. • A new Master Plan includes ways that public and private sectors enable California to achieve capacity.

34. Possible Ways to Increase Capacity: Unlikely • Increase tax revenue and provide more funding to the public postsecondary sector.

35. Possible Ways to Increase Capacity: Unlikely (Con’t) • Build 13 new campuses

36. We can. We will. We must.

37. Pullias Center for Higher Education Rossier School of Education University of Southern California Los Angeles, California pullias.usc.edu 213.740.7218