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Polls and surveys

Polls and surveys. Numbers generating news. Polls and surveys. Are an art form, and a science. The design of how they are conducted can lead to quite varied results. In advertising/PR/news editorial, we use these: - As the basis for stories - To generate interest - To spark conversation.

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Polls and surveys

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  1. Polls and surveys Numbers generating news

  2. Polls and surveys • Are an art form, and a science. • The design of how they are conducted can lead to quite varied results. • In advertising/PR/news editorial, we use these:- As the basis for stories- To generate interest- To spark conversation

  3. Polls and surveys, cont. • Using polls:- To generate buzz- To promote a product- To promote our firm • Generally, professional polling firms conduct polls used by news/PR/advertising organizations.

  4. For example • “Though voters twice before have overwhelmingly rejected holding a constitutional convention, a plurality remains undecided on the issue, according to a new automated phone poll by Team TelCom Inc. for the Lansing public relations firm Rossman Group.” – Peter Luke, Mlive.com, Tuesday.

  5. This poll • Called 400 likely Michigan voters. • Poll taken on Oct. 4. • 43 percent were unsure if Proposal 1, is a good idea or not. • Of those who had made up their minds, voters:- Were opposed to the idea by a 2-1 margin, 37.5 percent to 19.5 percent.

  6. More – this poll • Of those opposed to a convention, 56 percent said the current constitution works well enough. • Twenty six percent said a convention would give too much power to special interests during the rewrite. • Eighteen percent said it would cost too much.

  7. More – this poll, cont. • A plurality of supporters for a convention, 37 percent, said the Legislature is incapable of making the kind of change the state requires. • Thirty-six percent said Michigan's constitution should be stronger in reining in special interests. • Twenty-seven percent said the current document is outdated.

  8. From the people who paid … • "I expected the main reason for people to oppose it would be because it was too expensive, but that's the least popular reason to oppose it. I'm kind of thinking it's dead in the water.“- Josh Hovey, the Rossman Group. • What did this poll accomplish for the Rossman Group?

  9. Accuracy? • It seems something based on numbers should be beyond reproach. • But there are many factors that can skew results. • Quote, from a famous character: “Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything … 14 percent of people know that.”

  10. Poll skepticism • Can be skewed by several factors:- Who paid for it? Why?- Where were people surveyed?- Were cell phones included?- Are any groups over- or undersampled?- How were the questions constructed? What were the questions?

  11. Poll skepticism, cont. • Were respondents “set up” in any manner?- Ex. Were they read a description? • Does the polling firm have a well-known ideological slant? Identify the firm when reporting. • When was the poll taken? Any breaking news before or since then?

  12. Margin of error • For major polls, it’s important to note the margin of error. • More responses … less margin of error. • If difference is less than margin of error, don’t say “statistical tie.”- Within margin of error, virtual tie, almost tied, etc.

  13. Problems with polls • Is the pollster biased? • Who was surveyed? Is that group truly representative? • Cell phone-only households • How were the questions worded? • When was the poll conducted? Day of the week, time of day …

  14. “Fun” polls • News outlets often conduct informal polls to generate stories/discussions. • ESPN, local TV news site, etc. • These polls have no statistical value. Why? What value do they have? • PR/advertising. Company website polls. Do these have statistical value? Other value beyond numbers?

  15. Increasing poll sophistication • New communication tools, more sophisticated polling approaches, new statistical analysis. • Traditional polls vs. micro-polls. • New models of statistical analysis. • Very interesting results.

  16. Micro polls, the new wave • Using robo-calls to collect small, carefully selected samples. • Six or eight simple questions • Target specific, pre-identified voters.- Ex. Likely Democratic voters • Aim for 100 to 200 answers, instead of 400.

  17. Micro-polls, good and bad • Cheaper to conduct. • Can quickly assess whether a candidate has a lead, by how much. • Eliminate some of the randomness. Wait … we want random, right? • On the issues? • Sledgehammer vs. scalpel.

  18. A recent example • Way back in summer 2010 … • Andy Dillon and VirgBernero compete for the MI Democratic gubernatorial nod

  19. Traditional pollsters • Show Michigan House Speaker Andy Dillon with double-digit lead for much of the summer. • Many undecided in every poll. Often outnumber those who decided. • Bernero – internal poll, when respondents read a short bio of each candidate, his numbers surge

  20. Shockwave! • July 23 – Inside Michigan Politics editor Bill Ballenger calls it for Benero. • At odds with every poll result yet. • What’s he basing this on? Did his hairpiece finally infiltrate his brain? • Based it on a micro poll with 50 responses. Fifty – 5-0. Wha?

  21. The micro poll • Conducted by Mark Grebner, Practical Political Consulting, Lansing. •  Of the 50, 31 support Bernero, 19 support Dillon. • Grebner - “Relatively small numbers of interviews can tell you a lot if you listen carefully.”

  22. Grebner, July 29 • Predicts Bernero victory • “I ran me a little robo-poll of likely Dem primary voters, limited to the tri-county area, and this is what I found:  61 (Virg) to 36 (Andy) with 29 undecided.  (As always, those are raw responses, not percents.)  Small numbers, but statistically distinguishable from a tie.”

  23. Grebner, July 29 • So, he’s basing his prediction on 126 total respondents. • That total, coupled with his professional background, led to: • “My guess (not a direct extrapolation from polling, but merely a guess) is 58%-to-42% (on Aug. 3).”

  24. The result • Democratic primary vote, Aug. 3, 2010 • VirgBernero – 309,518 votes • Andy Dillon – 219,304 votes • Total Dem voters – 528,822 • Bernero – 58.5 percent • Dillon – 41.5 percent • Grebner poll – 126 voters. Or .000238 percent of the total voters.

  25. Polls • Traditional polls – snapshot of voters for general issues, general feeling. • Micro polls – targeted approach yields an answer to a very specific question. • Fun polls – generate discussion for communications organizations.

  26. Polls, cont. • Communications groups commission them, but don’t really conduct them (other than the “fun” polls.) • Drive news stories/coverage. • Create a story or buzz for PR and advertising firms. • Are an art form and a science.

  27. Questions?

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