The Post-2015 Global Development Agenda and the EU

1. The Post-2015 Global Development Agenda and the EU I-2DP Colloquium Accra James Mackie, Senior Advisor EU Development Policy 23 April 2015

2. Outline • Some Propositions • Post-2015 Agenda – process so far UN process on post-2015 The Agenda • EU interest in MDGs and now post-2015 • EU Development policy • EU ODA levels • EU positions for post-2015 • Moving beyond the MDGs • Financing for Development • Likely outcomes

3. Some propositions • Agreement on value of a global development agenda • Yet there is core dilemma: Limitations of MDGs Scale & complexity of SDG agenda • Europe continues to support: Need for international development Willing to tackle global challenges Multilateral and collective approach • But Europeans also Unsure of wider international support Want to move on from North-South model

4. Post-2015 process to date • Extensive consultations at national level • High-Level Panel Report – June 2013 • OWG – Proposals on SDGs – July 2014 • ICESDF – Report on finance – Aug 2014 • UNSG Synthesis Report, Nov 2014 • January 2015: negotiating process started • UN processes Negotiating in Blocks: G77+China & EU • EU engagement Various communications DEVCO+ENV European Reports on Development 2013 – Post-MDG agenda 2015 – Finance & development

5. At this stage in process General agreement seems to exist on: • Sustainable development Social agenda not enough on its own All 3 pillars: social, economic & environmental • Transformative change Tackle causes not just symptoms • Universality MDGs were about development in South SDG agenda is about both North and South Can this be sustained & will it work?

6. Transformative agenda • UN High-Level Panel conclusions – June 2013 Chairs: Ellen Johnson Sirleaf, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, David Cameron • Proposed a universal agenda with five big ‘transformative shifts’: Leave no-one behind Put sustainable development at the core Transform economies for jobs and inclusive growth Build peace & effective, open and accountable institutions for all Forge a new global partnership

7. End poverty • Achieve food security and improved nutrition • Ensure healthy lives and well-being • Inclusive and equitable education • Gender equality and empower women and girls • Availability of water & sanitation • Affordable, reliable & sustainable energy • Inclusive & sustainable growth • Resilient infrastructure, inclusive industrialisation • Reduce inequality within & among countries • Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient & sustainable • Sustainable consumption & production • Urgent action to combat climate change • Sustainable use of oceans, seas & marine resources • Sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems • Peaceful & inclusive societies, justice for all, inclusive institutions • Strengthenfinance, Means of Implementation, global partnership & PCSD Goals proposed by UN-OWG …Environmental,Economic, Social: MDG1-6

8. Drivers of changes in EU thinking since 2000 Agreement on objectives – the MDGs • Culmination of series of UN conferences in 1990s Scale – Monterrey Consensus – 2002 • Doubling of ODA levels by 2015 Approach – how to improve results? • Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness 2005, AAA, Busan Motivation – changinggeo-political priorities • Concern with security since 9/11 • New concerns with natural resources … New actors – China, India, Korea, Turkey… More recently other emerging issues: • Growing proactiveness of partner countries … • New thinking on poverty and on aid itself • Post-2015 – move to International Cooperation?

9. EU Development Policy European Consensus on Development 2005 • Principles: ownership, partnership, dialogue, work with variety of actors including CS and private sector • Poverty focus, achieve MDGs, More Aid, Better Aid … • Cross-cutting issues: gender, environment, Human Rights, rights of children, indigenous peoples, combating HIV/AIDS … • Policy coherence for development (PCD) • Joint EU action: coordination & complementarity Agenda for Change 2011 • Improve impact – concentrate on two priority areas: (i) governance and (ii) inclusive growth • Ensure best value for money – target resources, withdraw from some countries, coordinated action and PCD

10. EU Member States - ODA

11. Performance against target: EU Member States(EU Accountability Report, 2014)

12. Source: DAC & 2012 EU Accountability Report ODA/GNI - 1995-2011 Performance of DAC donors

13. EU Donor Atlas 2008

14. EU position on post-2015 • Built a joint EU position (EU+MS, Dev+Env) • Committed to multilateral approach New Global Partnership [COM, 4 Feb 2015] should be based on: Shared responsibility, mutual accountability & respective capacity Cover 3 pillars of sustainable development • Universality principle accepted • Support for 0.7% ODA/GNI target but wants other parties to make commitments too • Aid should be targeted and effectively used • Good policy and PCD (policy coherence for development) is vital • Monitoring, accountability & review system

15. The ERD • European Reports on Development Independent reports based on research Financed by European Commission and some member states • ERD 2013: Post-2015: Global Action for an Inclusive & Sustainable Future • ERD 2015: Combining Finance & Policies for a Transformative post-2015 Global Development Agenda • ERD 2015 to be launched on 4 May, Brussels • All documents including background papers and case studies on: www.erd-report.eu

16. ERD 2013 – Lessons from the MDGs • Unprecedented mobilisation of collective action Yet ownership of agenda very variable • Pushed aid towards social sectors • Poverty did go down, but aid not only reason • Inequalities increased Both nationallyand internationally • Lack of emphasis on economic growth and productive sectors • Sustainability issues not tackled • Global partnership Did not materialise in various areas (e.g. trade, climate change, etc.) ODA target not met though levels did go up

17. Understanding poverty better • Dramatic global fall in extreme poverty … Yet 1.2bn people still poor • Measurement: need to use both international & national poverty lines • Inequality needs to become an explicit focus Reduce through: fiscal measures, social protection policies … Group based inequalities – often very persistent • Multidimensionality – look at wider range of issues & cumulative effect • Vulnerability – take a dynamic view • Sustainability – Poor exposed most + think of future generations • Poor peoples’ own experience – well-being approaches

18. ERD 2013 - Beyond Aid & Beyond MDGs

19. ERD 2013 - Key Messages • A transformative agenda - wider and more structurally transformative approach • National ownership is key - more careful attention to how global goals relate to national policy needs and targets • Scale up global collective action on: International finance, trade, migration and climate change Policy Coherence for Development Continue to increase both level and effectiveness of aid

20. Starting point for ERD 2015 • Beyond MDGs: Sustainable development integrated agenda Start from enablers of transformative change • Beyond Aid: Consider all forms of development finance and means of implementation Policies for mobilisation and effective use of finance Importance of PCD / PCSD – effect of other policies on development Global collective action on a package of international and national measures

21. Consider policy and finance to enable a transformative post-2015 agenda

22. Consider all financial resources for sustainable development Trends in finance to developing countries ($ billion, 2011 prices), 2002–2011 Sources: (See report) IMF, OECD, WDI, etc.

23. Composition of finance varies by level of income (% of GDP)

24. …typical evolution in dominant sources of finance sources: Domestic private finance International private finance Evolving sources of finance Domestic private finance International private finance Domestic public finance • Bangladesh 2000-2012 ($): • GDP up by 150% • Aid up by 75% • Tax revenues up by 280% Domestic public finance Domestic private finance International private finance Domestic public finance International public finance International public finance Level of income • Indonesia: oil revenues pre 1986. • After fall in oil price 1986: • FDI in manufacturing / services • From foreign to domestic debt Source: ERD illustrations on Bangladesh, Ecuador, Indonesia, Mauritius, Moldova, and Tanzania

25. ERD 2015 – Main Messages • There are many sources of finance which tend to vary by level of income and type of enabler • Policy matters: finance important but not enough; essential to encourage appropriate policies for effective use and mobilisation: Domestic policy and financial frameworks for mobilising domestic resources and facilitating their effective use for sustainable development A conducive global policy environment International public finance to be used in a more focused and catalytic manner • Need for a monitoring and accountability framework to encourage appropriate action

26. Applying the universality principle • Implies that goals and targets are relevant to all governments and actors • Three types of targets: Type I - Domestic development Outcomes (e.g. eradicate poverty, reduce violence) Type II - Responsibilities to assist other countries (e.g. ODA, specific ‘beyond aid’ policies) Type III - Responsibilities for supporting progress towards global common goods (fair international systems, sustainable consumption/production, etc.) • Universality implies differentiation What can each contribute?

27. Impact of post-2015 on EU Development policy • ODA levels – further increases unlikely as long as financial crisis continues • Targeting of aid LDCs & fragile states Focus on catalytic use of ODA • Revision of European Consensus in 2016? • Integration of development policies with other policies? • One ‘global strategy’ with development policy as one element? • Universality – how far will EU go internally?

28. The UN negotiations … • UN block system for negotiations not ideal for building coalitions of the willing G77+China and the EU are probably key • Complication of having separate tracks for climate change and trade • FFD Addis – will it move beyond ODA? What other commitments to expect? • EU negotiators apparently feel Unhappy with sequencing of conferences: Finance before agenda China playing a constructive role Africa also better organised, clearer than in past & not just interested in ODA

29. Conclusions • Threshold moment – but many potential pitfalls … • Will coalitions emerge? • SDG agenda – necessary, but with so many goals and targets unlikely to work like MDGs • Monitoring and accountability is key • FFD Addis – need a range of contributions (finance and policies) on the table • UNGA – will unity on the agenda seen in 2014 be maintained? • COP21, Paris – will enough parties agree to make commitments? • EU committed but looking for friends

30. Thank you jm@ecdpm.org www.ecdpm.org www.slideshare.net/ecdpm