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The A* Grade: Can It Be Predicted?

The A* Grade: Can It Be Predicted?. Andy Gardner, Higher Education and Careers Consultant Tim Miller, Deputy Headteacher, JFS. This session will look at :. The background to the introduction of the A* Higher Education sector’s response to the A*

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The A* Grade: Can It Be Predicted?

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  1. The A* Grade: Can It Be Predicted? Andy Gardner, Higher Education and Careers Consultant Tim Miller, Deputy Headteacher, JFS

  2. This session will look at: • The background to the introduction of the A* • Higher Education sector’s response to the A* • Response of Schools and Colleges : The A* and UCAS predictions • How easy is it to predict an A* accurately? Summary of recent research undertaken at JFS • The ‘Stretch and Challenge’ agenda and how teachers have responded to the A*

  3. The Story So Far.......... Why the A*? • ‘Grade Inflation’ : the myth that it was Curriculum 2000 which prompted dramatic rise in the percentage of A grades : 1991- A Grades achieved : 11.9% 2001- A Grades achieved : 18.6% 2009- A Grades achieved : 26.7% • The idea that education is now an ‘all must have prizes’ world and achieving an ‘A’ grade was becoming too easy • A* would allow HEIs to discriminate between the excellent and the exceptional- a filter • Oct 2007-QCA announce introduction of new grade

  4. What is the A*? • First awarded in 2010 • Rewards exceptional candidates • Awarded at A2 to those who achieve: - Overall A grade at ‘A’ Level - 90% or more on UMS across A2 units

  5. How should universities respond? • “ Government should look to establish base data on the predictability of the new A level and Diploma A* Grade prior to predicted A* grades being used in the higher education applications and offers process.” • “ We fully support the introduction of greater stretch and challenge within the A level syllabus” • “ We are concerned that there is no evidence yet upon which to assess whether the new A* can be predicted with accuracy.” NCEE October 2008

  6. How did ( some) universities respond? or ‘ nailing jelly to the ceiling’ • For 2010 entry UCAS reports that 13 HEIs used the A* in conditional offers. • Our research in Spring 2010 identified 10 who formally stated they would use the A* in the 2011 cycle. ‘The Times’ recently reported that 14 HEIs would formally use A* in 2011. What is the experience of delegates here today? • What about Oxbridge? Cambridge introduced A* as part of their standard offer in 2010; Oxford had indicated they would wait for 2 years of results before deciding... and have now done so for a small group of maths related subjects

  7. Oxford and the A* A* now required in : Maths A* A* A Maths and Philosophy A*A * A Maths and Stats A* A* A Maths and Computer Science A* A A Computer Science A* A A Computer Science and Philosophy A*A A Engineering Science A* A A Engineering, Economics and Management A* A A Physics A* A A Physics and Philosophy A* A A Earth Sciences A* A A OR A AAA

  8. In 2011-12 standard conditional A Level offers will again ask for A* AA. • The A* will not be required in a specific subject in most cases. ‘Our modelling shows that most of our current students ( pre A* introduction) would have obtained at least one A*’. • 51 % of all 2010 entrants scored 3 A*s and 77% got 2 A*s • Success in the Cambridge application process will become more based on an applicant’s ability to prove themselves in public examinations at the end of Year 13. We believe this is preferable to the alternatives: - Greater reliance on interviews - Creation of bespoke admissions tests

  9. 2A*s in future? ‘We would have to be sure about the reliability of the A* grade before we did that. We would have to have clear evidence of its effectiveness so it would be in two or three years time before we could do it. University admissions staff have had to rely on the ‘AS’ Level results of potential candidates to assess whether they are in line to achieve an A*. Lots of predictions of A* grade passes didn’t have the evidence to back them up........” Geoff Parks, Director of Admissions quoted in ‘The Independent’ Aug 2010

  10. JFS research- a 3 stage process • Stage 1 – 2009- Could we have predicted the A* using the old system ? • Stage 2 – 2010 – Now that we have A * results can we predict from the available data? • Stage 3 -2011 – How reliable are teacher predictions based on ‘AS’ results?

  11. What did the 2009 research show? • The students who scored 90%+ at AS not always those who scored 90%+ at A2 to qualify for A* (using 2008 A2 cohort) • Where a student would have achieved one A* it was not always in the subject most central to their university application • In one subject 11 achieved 90%+ at AS but only one went on to achieve 90%+ at A2; in another 6 out of 10 achieved 90% in both AS and A2 Conclusion: Correlation between AS and A2 not proven Problem: How can one predict A* with confidence?

  12. The response of the School has evolved.... 2009-10 applications round :two statements on the relevant references: General statement: “It is the School's policy this year not to predict A* in any specific subject. Having analysed patterns of previous examination results we have decided to note in references whether a student exhibits A* potential.” Specific student: “On the basis of Emily’s proven abilities and her performance to date at both GCSE and 'AS' level, she is a student whom we consider highly likely to achieve an A* in at least one of her subjects.” 2010-11 applications round: we did predict A* for specific subjects and will analyse carefully our degree of accuracy in August

  13. Stage 2 - How reliable are ‘AS’ results in predicting A* grades? • 8 subjects used in survey of results from 2010 A2 cohort • We also looked at students’ average GCSE points scores • Students who achieved A or B at ‘AS’ level in sample subjects were the focus of the research • Each result analysed was assigned to one of seven categories to aid comparison

  14. Humanities 1 Total – A or B at AS Level 48 Category 1 (90%+ at AS and A* at A Level) 6 Category 2 (90%+ at AS and A at A Level) 14 Category 3 (80-89% at AS and A* at A Level) 2 Category 4 (80-89% at AS and A at A Level) 14 Category 5 (B at AS Level and A* at A Level) 0 Category 6 (B at AS Level and A at A Level) 1 Category 7 (B at AS Level and B or lower at A Level) 11 Mean average GCSE point score of students scoring A* at A Level – 7.5

  15. Humanities 2 Total – A or B 24 Category 1 (90%+ at AS and A* at A Level) 3 Category 2 (90%+ at AS and A at A Level) 3 Category 3 (80-89% at AS and A* at A Level) 2 Category 4 (80-89% at AS and A at A Level) 7 Category 5 (B at AS Level and A* at A Level) 0 Category 6 (B at AS Level and A at A Level) 7 Category 7 (B at AS Level and B or lower at A Level) 2 Mean average GCSE score of students scoring A* at A Level – 7.2

  16. Humanities 3 Total – A or B 52 Category 1 (90%+ at AS and A* at A Level) 4 Category 2 (90%+ at AS and A at A Level) 9 Category 3 (80-89% at AS and A* at A Level) 5 Category 4 (80-89% at AS and A at A Level) 17 Category 5 (B at AS Level and A* at A Level) 0 Category 6 (B at AS Level and A at A Level) 4 Category 7 (B at AS Level and B or lower at A Level) 13 Mean average GCSE score of students scoring A* at A Level – 7.4

  17. Social Science 1 Total – A or B 16 Category 1 (90%+ at AS and A* at A Level) 3 Category 2 (90%+ at AS and A at A Level) 2 Category 3 (80-89% at AS and A* at A Level) 2 Category 4 (80-89% at AS and A at A Level) 3 Category 5 (B at AS Level and A* at A Level) 0 Category 6 (B at AS Level and A at A Level) 1 Category 7 (B at AS Level and B or lower at A Level) 5 Mean average GCSE score of students scoring A* at A Level – 6.5

  18. Social Science 2 Total – A or B 31 Category 1 (90%+ at AS and A* at A Level) 1 Category 2 (90%+ at AS and A at A Level) 0 Category 3 (80-89% at AS and A* at A Level) 4 Category 4 (80-89% at AS and A at A Level) 12 Category 5 (B at AS Level and A* at A Level) 1 Category 6 (B at AS Level and A at A Level) 3 Category 7 (B at AS Level and B or lower at A Level) 10 Mean average GCSE score of students scoring A* at A Level – 7.4

  19. Creative subject 1 Total – A or B 19 Category 1 (90%+ at AS and A* at A Level) 1 Category 2 (90%+ at AS and A at A Level) 3 Category 3 (80-89% at AS and A* at A Level) 3 Category 4 (80-89% at AS and A at A Level) 5 Category 5 (B at AS Level and A* at A Level) 0 Category 6 (B at AS Level and A at A Level) 1 Category 7 (B at AS Level and B or lower at A Level) 6 Mean average GCSE score of students scoring A* at A Level – 6.5

  20. Science 1 Total – A or B 20 Category 1 (90%+ at AS and A* at A Level) 3 Category 2 (90%+ at AS and A at A Level) 3 Category 3 (80-89% at AS and A* at A Level) 1 Category 4 (80-89% at AS and A at A Level) 5 Category 5 (B at AS Level and A* at A Level) 2 Category 6 (B at AS Level and A at A Level) 2 Category 7 (B at AS Level and B or lower at A Level) 4 Mean average GCSE score of students scoring A* at A Level – 7.5

  21. Science 2 Total – A or B 17 Category 1 (90%+ at AS and A* at A Level) 2 Category 2 (90%+ at AS and A at A Level) 1 Category 3 (80-89% at AS and A* at A Level) 2 Category 4 (80-89% at AS and A at A Level) 7 Category 5 (B at AS Level and A* at A Level) 0 Category 6 (B at AS Level and A at A Level) 1 Category 7 (B at AS Level and B or lower at A Level) 4 Mean average GCSE score of students scoring A* at A Level – 7.7

  22. What about those who got A*AA? 43 students got at least A*AA 75% of these had at least 7.2 at GCSE 22 got at least one high A at AS Level 20 got at least two high A’s at AS Level 11 got at least one high A at AS Level and did not get A*AA (from the 8 subjects surveyed) GCSE scores of those who got A*A*A*: 8, 7.9, 7.9, 7.9, 7.6, 7.6, 7.6, 7.4, 7.3, 6.6

  23. A Predictions policy emerging? What if....we decided on a predictions policy of: We will predict A*AA if the student gets 7.3 at GCSE and 1 high A (90% ums – 180/270+) at AS Level or Two high As at AS Level Of the 43 at JFS who got A*AA we would have got 29 correct predictions and 14 wrong. Other issues: 1. Need to examine accuracy of this year’s predictions – stage 3 of research 2. Does issue raise chances of a move to PQA? 3. Those assured of at least A grades do not tend to ‘slack off’ in Spring Yr. 13 under the new system 4. A* introduced due to supply and demand issue- what about impact of higher fees? 5. The teaching and learning aspect of stretch and challenge agenda

  24. Additional Issues to consider 1. We need to examine accuracy of this year’s predictions – stage 3 of our research. 2. Those assured of at least A grades do not tend to ‘slack off’ in Spring Yr. 13 under the new system 3.. A* introduced due to supply and demand issue- what about impact of higher fees? Demographic dip? 4. The teaching and learning aspect of the stretch and challenge agenda- how have schools responded? 5. Will schools which achieve more A*s now attract more students if they are planning on applying for courses which will demand A*? 6. Does the issue of predictions and the pressure to achieve A*s point to advantages of PQA?

  25. How can students get an A*- the stretch and challenge agenda! • Is it a case of the ones who can will and the ones who can’t won’t? • ‘Stretch and challenge’: “ the requirements that stretch and challenge is included at A2 is met by a number of requirements in the specification. These include: • Examination questions which are open ended and allow scope for individual and independent thought • Access to theoretical writing on key topics in the study of literature.” Eng Lit AQA Specification B

  26. Back to the future? Schools: • They will need to incorporate ‘stretch and challenge into ‘A’ Level teaching approaches : Eg Geography Department’s approach to the demand for more independent work in A2 Independent work for this lesson: Read through you notes, check you understand each energy source. Reading to consolidate – Warn p3 – 5. Digby p11. Practice memorising the definition of each energy sources and its advantages and disadvantages. You will need to know these defns to understand ideas in the rest of this topic. Renewable Energy, what are the options? Geography Review Vol 15 No 2 Nov 2001, Lyn Collins Renewable Energy –why should we use it ? Geography Review Vol 15 No 1 Sept 2001 Lyn Collins http://www.scienceonline.co.uk/energy/renewable-energy.html

  27. Final Thought Our research is specific to JFS –though it may enable broader conclusions but Schools and Colleges should examine their cohorts of students, analyse their own results and review UCAS predictions policy.

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