RECCWEX Regional Climate Change and Extremes

1. RECCWEXRegional Climate Change and Extremes

2. Outline This Status Quo Report of the Flagship will contain information regarding: • Background & Scientific Questions • Contribuion to the overall research agenda of the RD/PIK • Involved Resources • Main Results & Impacts • Outlook

3. Persons Senior scientists – Postdocs: Fritz Gerstengarbe, Fred Hattermann, Zbyszek Kundzewicz, Peter Werner, Valentina Krysanova, Jan Volkholz, Martin Kücken, Hermann Österle, Stefan Liersch, Hagen Koch, Frank Wechsung Doktorands: Shaochun Huang, Matthias Büchner, Julia Lutz, Sebastian Schubert, Christopher Menz, Julia Tecklenburg, Judith Stagl, Tobias Vetter, Samuel Fournet, Friedemann Lembke Technical staff: Volker Hauffe

4. Development of hydro-climatic extremes- Example: floods world wide - Number Comprehensive investigations of climate change impacts on hydro-climatic extremes (droughts, floods, storms …) are just starting (and very challenging) and are surely a topic for PIK (socio-economical impact, public interest) Source: MunichRe

5. Central questions • How will climate change-related extreme events manifest in certain regions under global change? • Where are regional hot spots? • Are new and never observed extremes possible? • What is the feedback climate/vegetation/hydrology and how can this knowledge be used to design landscapes in order to counteract regional climate impacts? • Where are the gaps in modeling to cover the research questions above? • What is the range of uncertainty/confidence in regional scenarios of future extreme events? • What are possible adaptation measures?

6. Research goals • Quantification of possible impacts related to meteorological and hydrological extremes in different regions/ climate zones; • Vulnerability and possible adaptation measures; • Development of a state-of-the-art model system;

7. Methods und Concepts Land use change Climate change GCMs Global climate LPJ Global CCLM/ STAR (and other) Regional climate model Regional regional partners 1 xx realisations SWIM 1) Water resources and extremes 2) Change in vegetation dynamics (crop production) 2 Water resources management Landscape Agriculture and forestry

8. Related projects

9. Related projects

10. Related projects

12. Selected results Floods, droughts, storms …

13. 1: Maps of flood-related damages in 2011-40 and 2041-70 Huang S, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Bronstert A (2011) Projections for climate change affected river flood conditions in Germany by combining three different RCMs with a regional hydrological model. Submitted to Climatic Change. Average flood damages per river reach and scenario period (considered are private houses and small enterprises). Projection of floods: hydrological model SWIM driven by regional climate models REMO and CCLM (in total 7 climate realizations). Damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association (GDV). Average flood damages 1961-2000 = 100%. First German wide estimation of flood related losses under climate change.

14. Temp. increase + ~0.5 + ~1.5 + ~3.0 2. Flood related damages in Germany per period Hattermann FF, Huang S, Burghoff O, Willems W, Österle H, Büchner M, Kundzewisz ZW (2011) Modeling flood damages under climate change – a case study for Germany [Resutls of the GDV insurance project]. Submitted to Natural Hazards. Projection of flood related damages on private houses and small enterprises: SWIM driven by the regional climate models REMO and CCLM (7 climate realizations in total). Damage functions provided by the German Insurance Association (GDV). 500 Million Euro is the observed and simulated average in the reference period 1961-2000

15. 3. Increase of storm damages in Germany Regional increase of storm damages "The damage development in storm/hail events with regard to climate change in Germany"F.-W. Gerstengarbe, P.C. Werner, H. Österle et al. A1B - Summer 2041/70 – 1984/2008 First German wide estimation of storm related losses under climate change.

16. (1981-2000) baseline scenario 0° 80% 1° 55% 2 ° 42% 3 ° 4. Selected Results – Drougths in Sub-Saharan Africa – Niger basin Vulnerability of agricultural production in the Inner Niger Delta to water resources management under climate variability and change Stefan Liersch, Jan Cools, Bakary Kone, Mori Diallo, Hagen Koch, Samuel Fournet, Fred Hattermann To be submitted to Environmental Science and Policy

17. Publications • (1) Hattermann FF, Weiland M, Huang S, Krysanova V, Kundzewicz ZW (2011) Model-supported Impact Assessment for the Water Sector in Central Germany under Climate Change – a Case Study. Water Resources Management, in print. • (2) Huang S, Hattermann FF, Krysanova V, Bronstert A (2011) Projections for climate change affected river flood conditions in Germany by combining three different RCMs with a regional hydrological model. Submitted to Climatic Change. • (3) Hattermann FF, Huang S, Burghoff O, Willems W, Österle H, Büchner M, Kundzewisz ZW (2011) Modeling flood damages under climate change – a case study for Germany [Resutls of the GDV insurance project]. Submitted to Natural Hazards. • (4) Hattermann FF, Huang S, Koch H (2011) Climate change uncertainty and impacts on hydrology and hydropower production in Germany. Submitted to Water Resources Management. • (5) Hattermann FF, Kundzewicz ZW, Krysanova V, Burghoff O, Huang S, Vetter T, Merz B, Werner P, Gerstengarbe F-W. Climate track in rising floods and droughts in Germany. Status: Submitted to Nature / Climate Change on 20(?) Feb. 2011 • (6) Hattermann FF, Kundzewicz ZW, Krysanova V, Huang S, Vetter T, Burghoff O, Kron W, Hauf Y, Werner P, Gerstengarbe F-W, Krysanova V, Merz B, Bronstert A. Flood risk in holistic perspective - observed changes in Germany. Chapter in the book: Changes of Flood Risk in Europe (Editor: Zbigniew W. Kundzewicz, Publisher: IAHS Press, Wallingford). Status: highly advanced (90%); Planned finalization: 25 March 2011. • (7) Kundzewicz - editing of the book Changes of Flood Risk in Europe and entries to multiple chapters in the book. Publisher: IAHS Press, Wallingford. Status: advanced (40%); Planned finalization: 15 June 2011. • (8) Hattermann et al. - Holistic view on flood risk change in Germany 1: Analysis of observations [journal paper based on item (5) above: interpretation of records of temperature, humidity, precipitation, intense precipitation, river flow, flood frequency, material damage]. To be submitted to Hydrol. Sci. J. Planned finalization: 30 April 2011. • (9) Huang et al. - Holistic view on flood risk change in Germany 1: Modelling [journal paper based on item (5) above; interpretation of modelling results - river flow, flood frequency, material damage]. To be submitted to Hydrol. Sci. J. Planned finalization: 31 May 2011.

18. Publications – continued • (10) Huang et al. – Projections of river low flows in Germany under climate change by combining three RCMs and a regional hydrological model [Comparable to 1 but for low flow extremes instead of floods]. To be submitted to Hydrol. Sci. J., J. of Hydr. or Hyd. Proc. or similar Journal. • (11) Kundzewicz et al. - Changes in climatological drivers of floods in Germany [journal paper based on item (5) above; interpretation of records of of temperature, humidity, precipitation, intense precipitation]. To be submitted to Theor. and Applied Climatology or International Journal of Climatology or Acta Geophysica. Planned finalization: 15 May 2011. • (12) Huang et al. – Applying climate ensemble scenarios for investigation of hydro-climatic extremes in Central Europe [journal paper based on (1) but with climate scenario simulations of the ENSEMBLES project as input embracing different scenarios, GCMs and realizations]. To be submitted to Hydrol. Sci. J., J. of Hydr. or Hyd. Proc.. Planned finalization: 30 June 2011. • (13) Hattermann et al. – Possible climate change impacts in Central Europe on flood generation and flood losses [journal paper based on (2) and (11) but with climate scenario simulations of the ENSEMBLES project as input for a wider estimation of possible flood losses]. To be submitted to Climatic Change or Nature Climate Change. Planned finalization: 30 June 2011. • (14) Krysanova et al. – Droughts indices for Germany [extension of the study done for the Elbe basin (Krysanova et al. 2008a) including new results and investigations]. To be submitted to …. Planned finalization: 30 June 2011. • (15) Liersch, S., Hattermann, F. et al. Vulnerability of agricultural production in the Inner Niger Delta to water resources management under climate variability and change. To be submitted to Environmental Science and Policy • (16) Liersch, S., Koch, H., Fournet, S., Hattermann, F.F. How to integrate wetland processes in river basin modeling? A West African case study. To be submitted to Hydrological Processes

19. Publications – continued • Gerstengarbe, F.-W. (2009): Aktuelle Klimaentwicklungen - global bis regional. In: Böhmer, T. & Weißenborn, C. (Hrsg.): Erneuerbare Energien - Perspektiven für die Stromerzeugung, 2. Auflage 2009 [Energie im Dialog, Bd. 3], S. 1 bis 18, Frankfurt a. Main: EW Medien und Kongresse GmbH, 2009 - ISBN 978-3-8022-0963-5 • Kücken, M., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Orlowsky, B. (2009): A Combination of Cluster Analysis and Kappa Statistic for the Evaluation of Climate Model Results. J. Appl. Meteorol. Climatol., 48, 2009, 1757-1765, DOI: 10.1175/2009JAMC2083.1 • Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Werner, P. C. (2009): Klimaextreme und ihr Gefährdungspotential für Deutschland. Geographische Rundschau, 9, 2009, 12-19 • Gerstengarbe, F.-W. (2009): Regional Climatology and Recent Climate Variability. In: Selected Contributions on Results of Climate Research in East Germany (the former GDR). Ed.: Hupfer, P., Dethloff, K., Berichte zur Polar- und Meeresforschung = Reports on polar and marine research, 588, 141-154 • Kundzewicz, Z. W., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Österle, H., Werner, P. C., Fricke, W. (2009): Recent anomalies of mean temperature of 12 consecutive months – Germany, Europe, Northern Hemisphere. Theor. Appl. Climatol., 95, 417-422, DOI 10.1007/s00704-008-0013-9 • Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Werner, P.C. (2009): A short update on Koeppen climate shifts in Europe between 1901 and 2003. Climatic Change, 92, 1, 99-107, DOI: 10.1007/s10584-008-9430-0 • Werner, P.C. , Gerstengarbe, F.-W. (2010): Katalog der Großwetterlagen Europas (1881-2009) nach Paul Hess und Helmut Brezowsky, 7. verbesserte und ergänzte Auflage. PIK Report, 119, 146 S. • Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Endlicher, W. (2010): Continents under Climate Change. Von den Kippprozessen im Erdsystem zum Dominoeffekt des Klimawandels. humboldt-spektrum, 1-2/2010, 46-53 • Orlowsky, B., Bothe, O., Fraedrich, K., Gerstengarbe, F.-W., Zhu, X. (2010): Future climates from bias-bootstrapped weather analogues: an application to the Yangtze river basin. Journal of Climate, American Meteorological Society, DOI: 10.1175/2010JCLI3271.1, early online release

20. Publications – continued • “Bias-bootstrapped weather analogues for future climates” F.-W. Gerstengarbe, K. Fraedrich, B. Orlowsky and P. C. Werner, Nonlinear processes in geophysics • “The damage development in storm/hail events with regard to climate change in Germany”, F.-W. Gerstengarbe, P.C. Werner, H. Österle, Geneva Report • “Spatial-temporal changes of meteorological parameters in selected circulation patterns”, Peter C. Werner, Friedrich-Wilhelm Gerstengarbe, Climate Research • "Recent global warming induced climate changes“, P.C. Werner and F.-W. Gerstengarbe, H. Österle, M. Wodinski, "Global Warming / Book 1", ISBN 978-953-308-97-6 • “A very-high-Resolution Simulation of the Drought Summer 2003 in Germany using the Regional Model CLM”, Kücken M., Büchner, M., Böhm, U., Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology • “Quality of CCLM in reproducing components of the near-surface water balance in the Elbe river catchment”, J. Volkholz, U. Böhm, F. Hattermann, • „Recent and future climate development in South Africa“, J. Lutz, F.-W. Gerstengarbe, H. Österle, J. Volkholz, P.C. Werner, Theoretical and Applied Climatology

21. Links to other departments and groups • Insurance project in cooperation with RD III • Develop of methods and data exchange with RD IV (projects ECONS, PROGRESS) • Downscaling of large scale results in regional hot-spots in cooperation with RD I (Monsoon failure and impacts in India – Ganges and Indus basins) • Cooperation with LPJ group (scenario development, exchange of methods and modules)

22. Future strategy • Investigation of tipping points and impacts at the regional scale; • Set-up of a global climate data base emulating/ reproducing the bandwidth of GCM scenarios for the regional scale; • Further development and application of a state-of-the-art model system integrating climate, water and vegetation including feedbacks; • Investigation of vulnerability andpossible adaptation measures – “no regret measures”; • Stronger link to the global scale; • Stronger integration of “cities” and “health”.

23. Selected tasks • Scenario development for „Tipping-Point-Regions“ in cooperation with FB I • Development of a tool/ model system for climate impact reserach • Applicatikon of the model system world wide • Quantification of vulnerability and investigation of adaptation measures • CCLM and STAR simulations in the frame of the CORDEX initiative • Programme for the 5. Assessment Report of the IPCC • Link to the global scale

24. Selected tasks • Simulation of climate scenarios for the past in Germany (first 1801 – 1900, in a second step 1501 – 1900) • Implementation and further development of a city modul for CCLM • Investigation of complex networks in natural processes (together with FB IV) • Investigation of the actual climate development • Model comparison workshop • Länderkonferenz • Publications

25. Problems and Challenges • Visibility of results in the institute; • Acceptance for regional studies in general; • Acceptance for applied research (outsourcing …); • Link to global scale/ studies;