China’s Looming Demographic Crisis and B rief History of the China Population Policy Reform Initiative

1. China’s Looming Demographic Crisis and BriefHistory of the China Population Policy Reform Initiative “China’s One Child Policy After Three Decades – Time for a Change?” Joan Kaufman, Sc.D Lecturer in Global Health and Social Medicine, Harvard Medical School Distinguished Scientist, Heller School for Social Policy and Management, Brandeis University

2. China’s Population • Over 1.35 billion (2005) • Annual increase of 12 million/year (down from peak of 23 million/year in 1980s • Population will grow for another 15 -20 years, peak at about 1.4 billion, then start to decline

3. Congruence of Two Booms(Population Age Distribution, China) (Wang Feng, 2010) (Mason and Wang 2007)

4. Congruence of Two Booms(Population Age Distribution, China) (Wang Feng 2010) (Mason and Wang 2007)

5. Chairman Mao “It is a very good thing thatChina has a big population.Even if China’s populationmultiplies many times, sheis fully capable of finding asolution: the solution is production…revolution plus production can solve the problem of feeding the population” (The Bankruptcy of the Idealist Conception of History, 1949)

6. Background to the “One Child Policy” • Zhou Enlai - Later, Longer, Fewer Policy in 1970’s (tightened – “one is not too few”, “two is enough”, “three is too many”) • Deng Xiaoping’s “4 Modernizations” by 2000 included a goal that population must be contained within 1.2 billion • One Child Policy introduced in 1980 to meet that goal – Open Letter to CCP (9/80)

7. One Child Policy • Child bearing women targeted • Demographic targets down to local level • Government regulations and fines for unplanned births • Parity driven: emphasis on long term methods • pressure to abort unplanned pregnancies • Highly organized service and propaganda infrastructure • “One veto” system for evaluating officials

9. The One Child Policy after 30 Years Key Questions? • A temporary measure, so why has it been so hard to change even despite mounting evidence that it should? • What arguments and strategy will convince policy leaders to do so? • How rational is the resistance to change the policy amongst an otherwise pragmatic leadership?

10. One Child Policy and China’s Fertility Decline (Wang Feng, 2010)

11. Decline in Annual Births (Wang Feng, 2010) Sources: National Bureau of Statistics, China

12. How Low is China’s Fertility?(Wang Feng, 2010) (Guo, 2009)

13. What are the Impacts of this below replacement fertility ? • Already well underway and will be hard to reverse • Key Impacts which will become more severe • Distorted Sex Ratio at Birth – less women • Skewed age ratio • Decline in labor force entrants • Aging population • High dependency ratio of aging to workers • “Demographic Dividend” at risk • The “One Child Policy” is irrelevant at this point

14. Onset of Negative Growth (and population momentum) (Wang Feng 2010) (Wang, Guo, and Mao 2008)

15. China’s Demographic Cliff?(Wang Feng, 2010) (Wang, Guo, and Mao 2008)

16. China’s total labor size will decline by 11% in the next 20 years (Wang Feng, 2010)

17. Its new entrants (20-24) will drop by 45% in the next 10 years Wang Feng, 2010

18. Current Fertility Policy Still Requires the Majority of Chinese to have only One Child National policy required number of children per couple (policy fertility): 1.47 One child：35.4% “One and a half” policy：53.6% Two children：9.7% Three children：1.3% 63% of the couples could have only one child under current policy Exemptions of numerous categories

19. Unbearable Weight on Chinese Families(140 million only children, a third of all Chinese households) (Wang Feng, 2010) % of elderly women w/one child, at age 60

20. Distorted Sex Ratio at Birth 1982 - 107.6 2005 - 120.5 (132.9 rural) By birth order first second 1982 106.5 109.4 113.8 2005 108.4 143.2 156.4 Source: 1982: National Fertility Sample 2005: China Population Censuses and 1% Pop Survey Samples

21. Gender Impacts Driven by the One Child Policy • SRB distortion through sex selective abortion • Girl child abandonment: second and third parity • Higher child mortality rates among girls (21 per 1000 excess deaths)

22. Sex ratio at birth in China. Urban and Rural 1982-2005 (from Siri Tellier, 2010) Source: China Population Censuses and 1% Population Sample Surveys 5.

23. Sex Ratio at Birth by Birth Order 1982-2005 (from Siri Tellier, 2010) Source: For 1982: National Fertility Sample Survey6; For 1987-2005: China Population Censuses and 1 % Population Sample Surveys5.

24. Impact • 30 million wifeless men in 2020 (People’s Network, 2004-03-07) • Male surplus if SRB stays the same 2030 - 33.4 2040 - 39.1 2050 - 37.5 Source: C. Guilmoto, unpublished (from Siri Tellier, 2010)

25. My personal involvement in this story as scholar, funder, and participant • A book, A Billion and Counting, 1983 (begun in 1974) • UNFPA - China and PO1 (1980 – 1984) Training Demographers and the 1982 Census • Doctoral research on the policy and program implementation in rural China in 1987 • Ford Foundation - China 1996-2001 • RH post ICPD • Support for SRB studies and “Care for Girls” efforts • Quality of care project – limited impact on Repro Rights • Initiation of the Population Policy Reform Initiative in 2000

26. The Population Policy Reform Initiative • Mounting consensus on need for policy change • Core group of demographers from the Quality Project (initially) • Recruited other influential demographers well distributed at senior levels • Marshall the evidence on negative social and economic impacts • Convince leadership to change the policy

27. Strategy • No foreigners allowed • Assemble a distinguish team of researchers working across disciplines and in positions of influence • Do good studies • Disseminate the results to policy makers • Work through economists and social policy thought leaders • Move it into the public discourse – tag line “China’s looming demographic crisis” – counter intuitive - below replacement fertility and implications

28. Components of the initiative • Study of national TFRs • Assemble other studies on impact – Sex Ratio, Aging, Labor, Dependency ratio, below replacement fertility, etc • Study of 2 child areas • Study of places where policy allowed 2 children in Jiangsu • Institutional study of NPFPC

29. Strategy and Approach • Petitions to Leadership (2004,2008) • Conferences (2005, 2008) • Convince the economists • Messaging to the public - media blitz - (Southern Weekend, March 2010 – front page challenging the policy)

30. Today’s Presentations • Gu Baochang – A detailed look at the 10 year initiative (Gu as key driver of it) • Cai Yong - Answers a key question about where part of the resistance lies to an obviously needed policy change – the institutional bureaucracy of the NPFPC • Zheng Zhenzhen – The Jiangsu Study - The “nail in the coffin story” – only 4% of couples allowed go on to have the second child (so far) – but boy child is still an important reason. In other 2 child experiment areas, SRB is better

31. Larger Perspectives and Questions • A “reflexive” belief among the leadership that population control responsible for China’s economic boom and Deng was right • One Child Policy – old style campaign politics and artifact of previous governance style • No women’s movement support • Rights argument has gone nowhere so economic argument must lead • Popular opinion of growing middle class does matter to leadership (media blitz) • Jiangsu rich – maybe not representative or poor rural China? • Rapid urbanization – end of hukou (HH registration) system around the corner? • New rationales – the environment

32. China’s Looming Demographic Crisis Wang Feng 2010