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INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT

Explore the hydrological applications of the COSMO model for forecasting precipitation and temperature. Learn about methods, results, and conclusions from experiments conducted over selected periods.

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INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT

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  1. INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND WATER MANAGEMENT Hydrological applications of COSMO model Andrzej Mazur Institute of Meteorology and Water Management Centre of Numerical Weather Forecasts 61 Podleśna str., PL-01673 Warsaw, Poland

  2. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Contents 1. Goal 2. Methods 3. Results 4. Conclusions

  3. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Goal What is needed of DMO for precipitation-runoff models? 1. Forecast of precipitation (of course)… 2. … together with air temperature While precipitation is obviously the main driving factor for a hydrological model, the temperature data provides information on the state of the precipitation and the available potential for evapotranspiration

  4. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Methods

  5. Hydrological applications of COSMO model where:y - measurement vectorb - multiple regression coefficients (time dependent)h - predictors - model forecast values Q - error covariancer - observational errorP - forecast covariancee - forecast errorw - temporary scalark - Kalman gain

  6. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Results Results of experiments for selected days/periods for temperature and precipitation: - June 30, 2007 – change from COSMO version 3.05 to 4.0 - January 01, 2008 – six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs - August 04, 2008 – heavy storm over Poland (part I) - August 15, 2008 – heavy storm over Poland (part II) and only for precipitation – increased resolution computations, heavy precipitation (mainly convective type): - May 04, 2005 - June 10, 2005 - August 09, 2005

  7. Hydrological applications of COSMO model End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Results of June 30, 2007 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

  8. Hydrological applications of COSMO model End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Bias of June 30, 2007 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

  9. Hydrological applications of COSMO model End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Results of June 30, 2007 – air temperature.Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).

  10. Hydrological applications of COSMO model First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Results of January 01, 2008 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

  11. Hydrological applications of COSMO model First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Bias of January 01, 2008 – air temperature (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

  12. Hydrological applications of COSMO model First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Results of Jan. 01, 2008 – air temperature.Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).

  13. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast June 30, 2007 January 01, 2008

  14. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Heavy storms over Poland, August 04, 2008 Results of Aug. 04, 2008 – air temperature.Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).

  15. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Heavy storms over Poland, August 15, 2008 Results of Aug. 15, 2008 – air temperature.Morning model run, AR results (left-most charts), DMO (middle) and measurement-derived fields (right-most) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).

  16. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast August 04, 2008 August 15, 2008

  17. Hydrological applications of COSMO model End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Results of June 30, 2007 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

  18. Hydrological applications of COSMO model End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Bias of June 30, 2007 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

  19. Hydrological applications of COSMO model End of COSMO version 3.05 runs, June 30, 2007 Results of June 30, 2007 – precipitation.Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.

  20. Hydrological applications of COSMO model First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Results of January 01, 2008 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

  21. Hydrological applications of COSMO model First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Bias of January 01, 2008 – precipitation (morning and afternoon model runs, DMO and corrected results)

  22. Hydrological applications of COSMO model First six months of COSMO version 4.0 runs Results of Jan. 01, 2008 – precipitation.Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower). Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.

  23. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast June 30, 2007 January 01, 2008

  24. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Heavy storms over Poland, August 04, 2008 Results of Aug. 04, 2008 – precipitation.Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.

  25. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Heavy storms over Poland, August 15, 2008 Results of Aug. 15, 2008 – precipitation.Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.

  26. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast August 04, 2008 August 15, 2008

  27. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Increased resolution model runs Results of May 04, 2005 – precipitation.Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.

  28. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Increased resolution model runs Results of June 10, 2005 – precipitation.Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.

  29. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Increased resolution model runs Results of Aug. 09, 2005 – precipitation.Morning model run, AR results (left), DMO (right) for 06:00 (upper) and 18:00 UTC (lower).Measured sum of precipitation marked with crosses with size proportional to amount.

  30. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Bias and RMSE values of DMO and AR-corrected results for selected hour of forecast, May 04, 2005, June 10, 2005 August 09, 2005.

  31. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Air temperature RMSE changes during period August 01, 2008 to August 21, 2008 (DMO and AR results shown). Precipitation RMSE changes during period August 01, 2008 to August 21, 2008 (DMO and AR results shown).

  32. Hydrological applications of COSMO model Conclusions Temperature forecast corrections, easier to develop, seem also to be more stable during a learning process (no sudden/drastic changes of coefficients over the entire period). Method – even in this simple approach – is able to “detect” and correct not only any factor aside of the model, but also systematic errors in its results. The change of COSMO model version (from 3.05 to reference version 4.0) has not significant (clearly visible) influence on time-evolvement of coefficients. Precipitation seems to be well-posed as far as the predictors are concerned. Geographical coordinates, elevation, time of measurement and previous measured and forecasted values seem to be fairly set for the purpose. Of course, artificial, but obvious constrain has always to be applied – corrected forecast value of precipitation must not be less than zero. Additional problem with precipitation forecast correction - correction process is hardly able to “create” any amount of precipitation from “nothing”. If DMO forecast predicts no rain at a certain point, it’s not possible to obtain a non-zero (or significant amount of) precipitation using AR scheme. Results are sensitive to data continuity of some kind – the more data available, the faster scheme converges and further changes of coefficients are smaller and smaller. If there was a significant lack of data, rapid changes of coefficients and statistic values was seen.

  33. Thank you for your attention. IMGW 01-673 Warszawa, ul.: Podleśna 61 tel.: (022) 56 94 134 fax: (022) 56 94 356 mobile: 0 503 122 134 andrzej.mazur@imgw.pl www.imgw.pl

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