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Offender mobility and crime location choice

This paper explores the recent developments and future challenges in offender mobility and crime location choice, focusing on theories such as rational choice, time geography, and routine activity. It discusses the factors influencing offenders' choice of crime targets and locations, as well as the effects of space-time convergence, motivated offenders, and absent guardians. The paper also examines human mobility patterns, including preferential return and spatial exploration, and their impact on crime. It concludes by highlighting the challenges and prospects for future research in this field.

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Offender mobility and crime location choice

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  1. Offender mobility and crime location choice Recent developments and future challenges 5th International Conference on Crime Geography and Crime Analysis, July 6-8, 2018, Guangzhou University 5th International Conference on Crime Geography and Crime Analysis, July 6-8, 2018, Guangzhou University Wim Bernasco Wim Bernasco

  2. Amsterdam - Guangzhou

  3. My Chinese connection

  4. Content Theory Mobility Distance Location choice

  5. Rational choice • Time geography • Routine activity • Crime pattern Theory

  6. Rational choice (economics) • behavior = optimal choice | constraints • costs (-) and benefits (+) • criminal versus non-criminal action • choice of crime target choice • choice of crime location • Time geography (geography) • behavior = spatially-temporally constrained • constraints • capability (e.g. need sleep) • coupling (e.g. agreed to meet) • authority (e.g. smoking not allowed) Generic theories

  7. Space-time convergence • motivated offenders • suitable targets • absent guardians Routine activity

  8. workplace friend’s home home shopping parents’ home sports center Awareness space • nodes • paths • opportunities Crime pattern

  9. Human mobility

  10. Lévy flight

  11. ? Lévy flight

  12. Lévy flight

  13. gym work shop shop home family Preferential return

  14. gym work shop shop home family Preferential return + spatial exploration

  15. School or work (15%) Home (60%) We spend time in a few places

  16. Offender mobility

  17. Rossmo, D. Kim, Lu, Yongmei & Fang, Tianfang(2012) Spatial-Temporal Crime Paths. In: Andresen and Kinney (Eds.) Patterns, Prevention, and Geometry of Crime.

  18. personal interview • retrospective • 1 Friday, 1 Saturday, 2 weekdays • open style, free sequence • per hour (24 hours per day) • where, what, with whom? Systematic diary

  19. Anchor points and locations visited by terrorists Concentration of activities

  20. Dispersion of activities

  21. # of locations over 4 days

  22. Are crimes premeditated ?

  23. Manifactured serendipity Pure serendipity Premeditation Search Premeditation / planning

  24. Home-crime • Most short, few long • Variations • Causes • Rational choice • Daily routines • Buffer zone? • Geographic profiling Distance decay

  25. Location choice

  26. Foraging

  27. Where forage ?

  28. 1 3 2 Where forage ? max (– distance)

  29. 1 3 2 Where to forage? max (food – distance) food

  30. 1 3 2 Where to forage? max (food – distance – predators) predator food

  31. 1 3 2 max (β1 food – β2 distance – β3predators) Where to forage? predator food

  32. measure attributes (distance, food, predators) • observe choices (triangle, circle, square …) • estimateβ1 , β2 , β3 • β1 , β2 , β3 tell us importance of distance, food, predators • apply to crime • distance = distance, • food = value crime benefits • predators = police In empirical research

  33. Framework has limitations • Effects of law enforcement • Co-offending issues • Repeat offending issues • Small spatial units (streets, addresses) • Flexible statistical models • Realistic distance measures (travel time) Some challenges

  34. Future prospects Theory premeditation – opportunism dimension Mobility geotracking, big data Distance distance from various anchor points Location choice realism of crime decisions

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