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Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“

Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“. Contents:. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen- tal stress: WaterGAP Crises The method: Fuzzy set theory Summary. Overview: The Idea Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective

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Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“

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  1. Presentation Project „Security Diagrams“ Contents: Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary • Overview: The Idea • Susceptibility • Bottom-up perspective • Top-down perspective • Environmental Stress: Water GAP • Crises • The method: Fuzzy set theory • Summary

  2. Center for Environmental Systems Research, University of Kassel (Project Coordination) Prof. Dr. Joseph Alcamo Dörthe Krömker Frank Eierdanz Adelphi Research, Berlin Alexander Carius Dennis Tänzler Aike Müller Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Richard Klein, Dr. Lilibeth Acosta-Michlik Sabine Campe Torsten Grothmann Dr. Frank Biermann „Security Diagrams“ - Team Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  3. Crises event Environmental stress High probabilityof crises Low probability of crises No crisesevent Susceptibility What are Security Diagrams? Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  4. Advantages of Security Diagrams • Combine concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility and crisis in a single model. • Treat the impacts of climate change as the probability of occurrence of an eventè expresses uncertainty. • Give compact presentation of large amount of complex historical data. • Provide a way to understand the future based on insights from the past. • Can be used to generate global maps of “hot spot countries” è frequently at risk. • Can be used to generate scenarios of future risk to countries. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  5. Disadvantages of Security Diagrams • Cannot substitute for detailed studies of risk and adaptation in different countries or regions. • Cannot provide enough information for designing detailed adaptation strategies. • Based on concepts (stress, susceptibility and crisis) that are … • èpoorly-defined; • èdifficult to quantify; • èdo not take full advantage of research in the social sciences. • In this project, we focus on this last paragraph. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  6. Goal of Project • To improve the method of Security Diagrams in order to better understand the relationship between extreme climate events and risks to society … • … by improving the definitions of the three inputs to these diagrams: • environmental stress • susceptibility • crisis • Focus: Climate-related water shortages. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  7. Expected Results • Interdisciplinary Cooperation – Coupling between approaches from the social and natural sciences • Further development of the concepts of environmental stress, susceptibility, crisis • … and therefore the improvement of the “Security Diagram” method. • … and with this improvement, a better understanding of the relationship between extreme climate events and risks to society. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  8. Procedure • 1. Select indicators and data protocol according to concepts • 2. Collect data from case study regions: • Southern Portugal (Adelphi Research) • Volga region, Russia (CESR Kassel) • Region of India (PIK) • 3. Pool data in top-down, bottom-up data base: • Top-down – regional “averages”, central statistics • Bottom up – population groups, population survey • 4. Use fuzzy set theory to quantify … • environmental stress • susceptibility • crisis • From 3 perspectives … • environmental psychology/sociology • political science • economic • 5. Compare results from different perspectives; generate new security diagrams Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  9. Fuzzy set theory … • … is a mathematical tool to quantify uncertain, fuzzy inputs. • … starts with a theory based conceptual model that identifies • influence factors and • relationships between these factors (inference). • … can be used to compare different perspectives and different indicators with one methodology. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  10. Environmental psychology Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or not adaptive Political science Political Capacity & Willingness Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility SUS Social Stability & Imbalance Pattern Reproduction Economic Economic Susceptibility DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic Social Susceptibility Conception Exposure Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Environ-mental stress Degreeof being affected

  11. Environmental psychology Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or not adaptive Political science Political Capacity & Willingness Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility SUS Social Stability & Imbalance Pattern Reproduction Economic Economic Susceptibility DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic Social Susceptibility Conception Exposure Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Environ-mental stress Degreeof being affected

  12. Action Theory: “Protection Motivation” Perception based appraisal process Values Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Appraisal of Threat = Motivation Severity Probability Fear/personal concern External Factors Action:adaptive or not adaptive Degree of being affected Response Efficacy Coping Appraisal = Competence Self Efficacy Costs/Barriers

  13. Procedure • Explorative questionnaires, partly qualitative/quantitative: • Threat appraisal: Threatened values, consequences, past experiences • Coping appraisal: Barriers, resources, possible actions • Sociodemographic factors: Dependency ratio, dependency from agricultural sector • Questionnaire development and pre-tests in cooperation with local partners • Survey with 52 households (rural and urban), 17 experts • Quantitative model: structural equation analysis • Fuzzy system for calculation of “susceptibility” Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  14. The Quantitative Model: Action in the Centre Appraisal of Threat= Motivation Coping Appraisal= Competence Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Past Experience Barriers + + Anticipation of Negative Consequences + Threatened Values Agricultural Resources - + Dependency Ratio Financial Resources + - + Overall Ability + - - “Easy” Actions e.g. technical solutions Moderate Actions “at place” Actions of Crisis e.g. migration

  15. Susceptibility from Top-down Perspectives • Regional Susceptibility is assessed from a • - political science perspective and an • - economic perspective • Step: Development of a conceptual model (Theory, Assumptions, Hypotheses, Operationalization) • Step: Data collection in cooperation with local partners • Step: Data Analysis and Fuzzy Set Application • Step: Discussion of preliminary results with the project group • Refining of the models and second Data Analysis Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  16. Environmental psychology Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or not adaptive Political science Political Capacity & Willingness Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility SUS Social Stability & Imbalance Pattern Reproduction Economic Economic Susceptibility DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic Social Susceptibility Conception Exposure Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Environ-mental stress Degreeof being affected

  17. Political Capacity & Political Willingness PolSus Economic Situation & Sector Susceptibility EcoSus SocSus Social Stability & Social Imbalance CulSus Endangerment of Pattern Reproduction Political Science: “Functional Differentiation of Societies” Endangerment of a system‘s subfunctions Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Stress Factors from the environing system Degrees of Susceptibility

  18. Database: I Poldim capacity willingness Illustration: The Political Dimension Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Resource Availability (as Tax Revenue) Relative State Capacity Action obstacles(as Degrees of Conflict Involvement) PolSus Social Intervention (Health Expenditures) Relative Willingness Obstacles to Inter. (as Degrees of corruption)

  19. Environmental psychology Agents’ perception & evaluation Agents actions Assets or Barriers Adaptive or not adaptive Political science Political Capacity & Willingness Econ. Situation & Sector Susceptibility SUS Social Stability & Imbalance Pattern Reproduction Economic Economic Susceptibility DependencyAgricultureInfrastructureIncomeSocial ServicesHealth & EducationDemographic Social Susceptibility Conception Exposure Disaster/Crises Susceptibility Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Environ-mental stress Degreeof being affected

  20. National Dependency: 1. External debt 2. Net com’l. energy imports 3. Trade balance Agriculture: 1. Size of agriculture sector 2. Agricultural employees 3. Added value of agr. Workers Regional Social Services: 1. Education expenditure 2. Health expenditure 3. Emergency programs Infrastructure: 1. Hydroelectric power 2. Irrigation Income: 1. Tax Revenue 2. GDP per capita 3. Income distribution Local Health & Education: 1. Number of doctors 2. Immunisations 3. Illiteracy Demographic: 1. Life expectancy at birth 2. Infant mortality rate 3. Population Social Indicators Economy: Economic and Social Theories Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Economic Indicators Legend:

  21. National Debt Trade Dependency External Debt Energy imports Trade balance Size agriculture Labour force Value added Agriculture Regional Agriculture Infrastructure Public investment Hydroelectric Irrigation Infrastructure Tax Revenue GDP per capita Gini coefficient Local Income/cap. Health Education Mortality Life expectancy population Income Education expen. Health expen. Social Services Number of doctors Immunisations Illiteracy Health & Education Number of doctors Immunisations Illiteracy Demographic Illustration: The Economic Dimension Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Economic Susceptibility Economic Growth & Development Theory Susceptibility Index Social Susceptibility Human Well-being & Development Theory

  22. The quantification of water stress – the model WaterGAP • WaterGAP is … • a global water use and availability model, • that computes surface runoff, groundwater recharge and river discharge, • at a spatial resolution of 0.5°. • WaterGAP is … • based on the best global data sets currently available and • calibrated against observed discharge at 724 gauging stations which represent about 50% of the global land area. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  23. Model overview Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary • Global Hydrology Model • water availability • surface runoff • groundwater recharge • river discharge • climate • drainage direction • land cover • slope • hydrogeology • permafrost water stress discharge reduction • Global Water Use Model • withdrawal and consumptivewater use • irrigation, livestock, domestic, industry • climate • irrigates areas • livestock • population • national estimates of domestic and industrial use

  24. Annual fresh water withdrawals as % of water resources Deviation of water availability from long time average Water availability per capita Annual groundwater recharge Percentage of area under stress (WTA > 0,4) Bernhard Lehner water stress index Percentage of population under stress Actual Evapotranspiration Palmer drought severity index Standard precipitation index Used indicators Indicators of water resources Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary • selection of best • addition • maximum of all • statistical approach • fuzzy set theory Water stress index ?

  25. The Question of Crises Definitions Working Definition:Crisis: an unstable and crucial time or state of affairs in which decisive change is impending, especially one with the distinct possibility of a highly undesirable outcome. In respect to the environment this means that the undesirable outcome is brought on by environmental stress and extraordinary emergency measures to counteract are required. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  26. Collection of Crises Indicators: Progress up to now • Sources for a quantification : • Global databases (EM-DAT) • Insights from the bottom up questionnaires • Insights from Emergency Plans • Media Analysis • Identification of alternative sources: • - Contact to local authorities, companies • - Identification of specific deviations of a long-term trend (crop yield, unemployment) Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  27. Barriers(Question 6) Experience with drought(Question 1, 2) Not agrarian resources(Question 13) Dependency ratio(Question 11) Likeliness of negative consequences(Question 3) Appraisal of threat Appraisal of coping capacity Agrarian resources(Question 13) Threatened values(Question 4) Dependency from agriculture(Question 14) Dependency from agriculture(Question 14) Technical measures(Question 5) Emotions related to drought(Question 8) Suscep-tibility „At place“ measures(Question 5) The Method: Fuzzy Set Theory Conceptual model Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  28. Input variables Inference (Rulesystem) Output variable Fuzzification Defuzzification Low Medium High Inference (Rule-system) if … and … then … Appraisal of threat Very low Veryhigh Low Medium High Suscep-tibility Low Medium High Appraisal of coping capacity Calculation procedure Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  29. Example of fuzzyfication Result: Membership of input value to category High = 0,0 and Membership of input value to category Medium = 0,2 and Membership of input value to category Low = 0,8 Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Low Medium High Appraisal of threat 0,8 Example: Input value of Appraisal of threat = 0,2 0,2 0,2

  30. Example of inference and defuzzyfication Inference (Rulesystem) Rule 1: If threat is low and coping is low then susceptibility is very high. Susceptibility [very high] = min (threat [Low]; coping [Low]) = min (0,8; 0,6) = 0,6 Rule 2: If threat is low and coping is medium then susceptibility is high. Susceptibility [high] = min (threat [low]; coping [medium]) = min (0,8; 0,4) = 0,4 … Rule 9: … Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Very low Veryhigh Appraisal of threat high = 0,0medium = 0,2 low = 0,8 Low Medium High 0,6 0,4 0,8 Appraisal of coping capacity high = 0,0medium = 0,4 low = 0,6 Susceptibility = 0,8

  31. Advantages of fuzzy set theory • Theory based procedure • Unique result of uncertain, fuzzy input • No subjective thresholds • Use of indicators of different types and scale Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary • Disadvantages of fuzzy set theory • Difficult to describe and reproduce • Subjectivity • Complexity when using many variables

  32. Summary • Select indicators and data protocol according to concepts • Collect data from case study regions: • - Southern Portugal (Adelphi Research) • - Volga region, Russia (CESR Kassel) • - Region of India (PIK) • 3. Pool data in top-down, bottom-up data base: • - Top-down – regional “averages”, central statistics • - Bottom up – population groups, population survey • 4. Use fuzzy set theory to quantify … • - environmental stress • - susceptibility • - crisis • From 3 perspectives … • - environmental psychology/sociology • - political science • - economic • 5. Compare results from different perspectives; generate new security diagrams Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary

  33. Contents: Overview Susceptibility Bottom-up perspective Top-down perspective Environmen-tal stress:WaterGAP Crises The method:Fuzzy set theory Summary Thank you very much! Questions?

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