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Perdagangan Indonesia

Perdagangan Indonesia. Perdagangan Eksport – Import Jatim 2012. Kresnayana Yahya Email: kresna49@yahoo.com Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com. Country Classification by 2010 GDP Share. N11 Bangladesh Egypt Iran Nigeria Pakistan Philippines Vietnam Mexico Korea Turkey Indonesia.

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Perdagangan Indonesia

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  1. Perdagangan Indonesia

  2. PerdaganganEksport – Import Jatim 2012 Kresnayana Yahya Email: kresna49@yahoo.com Blog: http://www.kresnayana.com

  3. Country Classification by 2010 GDP Share N11 Bangladesh Egypt Iran Nigeria Pakistan Philippines Vietnam Mexico Korea Turkey Indonesia World Growth Markets Mexico2% Korea2% Emerging Markets12% Turkey1% China9% GrowthMarkets23% Indonesia1% Developed Markets65% Brazil3% Russia3% India2% Source: GSAM

  4. Population Growth Figure 8.3

  5. Strukturpendudukdunia • Jepang : median age 47 • Europe : median age 40 • USA : median age 36 • China : median age 37 • Indonesia : median age 28 • India : median age 24 years

  6. Indonesia : Young population Indonesia 6% Indonesia demographic structure Productive age group 15-64 year covers 66 % or 165 milion Children below 15 years : 70 milion 66% 28% Sumber: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)

  7. BONUS DEMOGRAFI Sebagai negara dengan jumlah penduduk ke-4 terbesar di dunia, dalam kurun waktu 20 tahun mendatang Indonesia akan memasuki periode “bonus demografi”, yaitu periode di mana angka dependency ratio(indeks perbandingan antara usia tidak produktif dibagi usia produktif) mencapai angka minimal (di bawah 50%) sehingga dalam periode ini akan terdapat lebih banyak tenaga kerja produktif yang dapat diberdayakan untuk mendorong peningkatan produktivitas nasional yang sangat bermanfaat untuk pertumbuhan ekonomi. Periode “Bonus Demografi” India mempunyai poten-si yang sama, di mana penduduk usia kerja ma-sih meningkat tinggi se-mentara Rusia dan Je-pang menurun, Bonus Demografi ini harus dimanfaatkan secara maksimal di saat negara lain menghadapi situasi “aging population”

  8. Dependency Ratio Jawa Timur Demographic bonus

  9. Indonesia : Young population Indonesia 6% Indonesia demographic structure Productive age group 15-64 year covers 66 % or 165 milion Children below 15 years : 70 milion 66% 28% Sumber: http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart?page=1&fsrc=scn/fb/wl/bl/dailychartjan10 (20101120_WOC951)

  10. Investasi di Indonesia

  11. Investment Opportunities in Some Areas EAST JAVA: New Dev’t Complex Madura Island East Java is the most populated province in Indonesia. This newly built bridge connects Surabaya Me-tropolitan area (2nd largest metropolitan city) to the highly po-tential area in Madura island. Gov’t is determined to develop Suramadu Development Area (dotted circle) as a National Strategic Area to enhance various industrial activities that currently have been flourishing in Surabaya.

  12. Dayabelimakinmeningkat • Spending untukmakanmakinmeningkat, aktivitasdiluarrumahmeningkattajam • Penggunaankartukreditmakinseringdanjadipilihan • Kelompokberpengeluaran 5 jutakeatas per bulanmakinmeningkat • Kebutuhan social gathering dan social media users makintinggi • Konsumsilistrikkelompokmenengah rata rata diatas 4000 watt • Peralatandanperlengkapanrumahtanggaakanmeningkatkankonsumsilistrikdua kali daripertumbuhanekonomi ( diatas 14 – 20 %per tahun)

  13. East Java Prospects Port & refinery Oil & Gas 10 % Gas Oil & Gas Bridge Toll Fisheries 11 % Oil Fisheries Waterfront city Port 23 % Keterangan: - - - : Rencana jalan Tol Southern Highway 56 %

  14. Koridor Utara City/District Contribution [Gross Domestic Product, 2010] Sumber: BPS JawaTimur , 2011 (diolahEncietyBusines Consult Surabaya) Koridor Utara Selatan Koridor Barat Daya KoridorTimur

  15. Human Development Index (HDI) – EAST JAVA 2011 2010 72,15 2009 71,62 2008 71,06 2007 70,38 69,78 Pertumbuhan IPM tertinggi Jawa Timur terjadi pada tahun 2009 sebesar 0,68poin dan pada tahun 2011 IPM Jawa Timur sudah melampaui IPM Indonesia yang masih memiliki IPM 61,7

  16. Component Of HDI – EAST JAVA 2011 2010 2011 75,54 2009 2010 74,98 2009 74,68 74,53 2011 74,34 2010 73,92 2009 66,24 65,54 64,74 Life Expectancy Index Purchasing Power Parity Index Education Index

  17. VISI INDONESIA 2025 “Mengangkat Indonesia menjadi negara maju dan merupakan kekuatan 12 besar dunia di tahun 2025 dan 8 besar dunia pada tahun 2045 melalui pertumbuhan ekonomi tinggi yang inklusif dan berkelanjutan” 100 tahun kemerdekaan (Sumber: Master PlanPercepatan danPerluasanPembangunanEkonomi Indonesia 2011– 2025 ) Pencapaian Visi 2025 dan 2045 memerlukan penyiapan generasi yang mampu berperan aktif dalam kegiatan pembangunan. Dan harus dimulai sekarang dan generasi sekarang (PAUD)

  18. MASTERPLAN PERCEPATAN DAN PERLUASAN PEMBANGUNAN EKONOMI INDONESIA 2011 - 2025 • Keunggulan komparatif • Keunggulan kompetitif 6 Koridor pertumbuhan dengan : Koridor Ekonomi Indonesia

  19. Tema Pembangunan Masing-MasingKoridorEkonomidalamPercepatandanPerluasan Pembangunan Ekonomi

  20. Tema Pembangunan Koridor Ekonomi

  21. Inisiatif Strategik

  22. Distribusi 22 Kegiatan Ekonomi Utama dalam Setiap Kegiatan Koridor Ekonomi

  23. Tahapan Pembangunan Ekonomi Jangka Panjang PERSIAPAN AKSELERASI KEBERLANJUTAN PDB Nominal per capita PDB Nominal (US$ Miliar) 711 1,335 2,416 4,257 6,793 9,706 12,989 16,578 Populasi (JutaJiwa) 237 253 269 286 302 319 336 353

  24. Asumsi Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2011-2045 Asumsi Kurs USD 1 = IDR 9.000.

  25. IMF memproyeksikan Indonesia akanmengalamipertumbuhanekonomitercepat di antara 18 ekonomiterbesarduniapadatahun 2009-2015 Pertumbuhan PDB Nominal (2009 – 2015) Indonesia Russia China India Brazil Turkey South Korea Japan USA ASEAN (excl. Indonesia) Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010

  26. Ekonomi Indonesia akan menjadi semakin dominan di ASEAN dan mulai menjadi lebih besar dari beberapa negara Eropa Indonesia Economic Growth (nominal) ($ billion) CAGR 13% Indonesia’s economy as % of 41% ASEAN-6 47% 51% ASEAN (Total 11 Countries) 39% 46% 50% European Countries: Spain 52% 65% 87% 93% 115% 157% Netherlands Source : International Monetary Fund, World Economic Outlook Database, October 2010; ProyeksiEkonomi Indonesia 2011 – 2045; team analysis

  27. Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia saat ini telah jauh melampaui proyeksi Yayasan Indonesia Forum Proyeksi PDB per capita - Visi Indonesia 2030 1992 2015 2023 Lower Middle Income Country Upper Middle Income Country High Income Country Proyeksi Ekonomi Indonesia 2011 - 2045 Visi Indonesia 2030 Actual GDP per capita has surpassed US$3,000in 2010 Source: Yayasan Indonesia Forum, team analysis

  28. Pertumbuhan populasi produktif akan menunjang pertumbuhan ekonomi yang cepat dan stabil PiramidaPertumbuhanPopulasi (2000–2020) Male Indonesia–2000 Female Male Indonesia–2020 Female Population (in millions) Population (in millions) Total (million) 205 254 102 127 Male (million) 102 127 Female (million) Productive population (20–55 years old) 99 (48%) 132 (52%) Source: 2008 UNDP World Population Prospects

  29. Modal Utama Pembangunan Nasional 1. Kekayaan Sumberdaya Alam     Panas bumi (no.1 di dunia) Batubara (no.2 di dunia) Timah, Nikel (no. 2 dan 4 di dunia) Sawit, Karet, Kakao (no.1, 2, 2 di dunia) 2. Pengalaman 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 Tingkat Kemiskinan 15.4 14.2 13,3 3,000 Pendapatan Per Kapita 2,590 1,947 20 15 16.6 11,5- 12,5 9.1 8.4 1,500 1,000 10 7.9 7.4 7 5 500 0 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 * 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 3. Sumberdaya Manusia 4

  30. Tantangan Pertumbuhan Penghasilan Tahun 2009 (Sumber: Kompas, 16 Januari 2011, diolah dari BPS) Tahun 2025 (Harapan) Pengeluaran/hari 2% 0,4 Juta Kaya (>20 dolar): Menengah Atas (10-20 dolar): Menengah (4-10 dolar) 13% 2.2 Juta 22,3 jt 45% Menengah Bawah (2-4 dolar) = 48,8jt 30% Bawah (<2 dolar) = 136,2 Juta 10 %

  31. Penduduk yg bekerja (>15 Tahun) menurut lapangan kerja(dalam Juta) Sumber : Survey Angkatan Kerja Nasional 2004, 2006,2008, 2009, 2011

  32. 6 Koridor Ekonomi Indonesia 1 Banda Aceh Medan Batam Pekanbaru Jambi Padang Palembang 3 Pontianak Palangkaraya 4 Manado Gorontalo 6 Ternate Manokwari Sorong Samarinda Palu Mamuju Jayapura Pangkal Pinang Kendari Ambon Banjarmasin Bengkulu Lampung Jakarta Wamena Makassar Semarang Surabaya Mataram Denpasar 5 Serang 2 1 KE Sumatera 2 KE Jawa 3 KE Kalimantan Merauke Central Economic Mega Central Economic Jogjakarta Kupang 4 KE Sulawesi 5 KE Bali – Nusa Tenggara 6 KE Papua – Kep. Maluku KE : Economic Corridor  North Mollucas is integrated into Economic Corridor Papua- Mollucas , called economic corridor Papua-Mollucas Islands  Referring to North Mollucas and other Mollucas Islands  Referring to Indonesian Chamber of Commerce (KADIN) March 15, 2011 and Local Government March 22, 2011

  33. Indonesia sangatdiperhitungkanpadaPeta Negara negara Emerging Market Russia, South Africa and Turkey are the other top targets for the next five years Top 10 Emerging Markets for 2012-2017 by % Respondents (All Industries) Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years? N=427. Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey.

  34. Lapis kedua Emerging Markets akan dipimpin oleh Indonesia dan South Africa •Indonesia (29%), South Africa (25%) and Vietnam (20%) top the list for non-BRIC Secondary Emerging Markets after BRIC 2012-17 (All manufacturing & industrial respondents) Emerging Markets selected by Manufacturing & Industrial companies. •Turkey, Mexico, Poland, Saudi Arabia, Thailand, Argentina and the Philippines make up the rest of the top ten. •Poland is more important for manufacturing companies than it is for many other sectors. Rank 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 11 13 13 Country Indonesia South Africa Vietnam Turkey Mexico Poland Saudi Arabia Thailand Argentina Philippines % respondents 28.8% 25.0% 20.0% 18.8% 13.8% 11.3% 8.8% 8.8% 7.5% 7.5% Africa/Middle East Asia Europe Latin America Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years (to 2017)? N=80 Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey.

  35. Setelah BRIC Indonesia memiliki keunikan tersendiri Dibanding negara Emerging Market lainnya Smaller companies are looking at a wider range of countries, especially in Latin America •Larger manufacturers are focused on fewer Secondary Emerging Markets after BRIC 2012-17 (Manufacturing & industrial respondents by annual revenue) major Emerging Markets, notably Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa, as well as the BRICs. < 1bill Euro > 1bill Euro •Smaller companies have a more diverse range of Emerging Markets interests, and put more emphasis on South Africa, Vietnam and Latin America than their larger counterparts. Indonesia (27.5%) South Arica (27.5%) Vietnam (22.5%) Argentina (15.0%) Philippines (15.0%) Mexico (12.5%) Poland (12.5%) Turkey (12.5%) Indonesia (30.0%) Turkey (25.0%) South Africa (22.5%) Vietnam (17.5%) Mexico (15.0%) Poland (10.0%) 5 6 7 8 9 10 10 10 Europe Africa/Middle East Asia Latin America Question: Which are the top 5 Emerging Markets for your industry over the next 5 years (to 2017)? N=40(<1bil Euro) N=40(>1bil Euro) Source: Global Intelligence Alliance, Business Perspectives on Emerging Markets 2012-2017 Survey.

  36. Perdagangan Indonesia • Perdagangandalamnegri • Perdaganganluarnegri : Eksport, Import

  37. Mining INDUSTRY • Incredible increase of export: • Nickel 8 fold • Copper 11 fold • Bauxite 5 fold • Ore sand 7 fold

  38. Coordination of Kem-EMR with Kem-PU and Transportation Quantity and Spread of Reserve (Ore) Coordination of Kem-Industry with Kem-EMR (Minerba) Location for Smelter • Domestic, • International • Price • Demand/Supply PROCESSING AND REFINING ASPECTS (17/7/2012 SEMINAR) • INTERMEDIATE, • FINAL Energy / electricity supply Industry Product Marketmanufactur dan BBIH Perocessing dan Refinery PRODUCT of Downstream Mining • Technology, • DM/EXPERTIES • Capital Resources • Economic Feasibility, Coordination of EMR/PLN with EMR Minerba BK Raw Materials for Downstream Industry (BBIH Stop/Limit on Impor BBIH Manufacturing Industri Coordination of Kem-Industry with Kem-of Trade

  39. Coordinating Minister for Economic Meeting Results 31-7-2012 • All mineral products are subject to Export Duty 20%, • Clear separation between the categories of mining and industry categories (such as processing and refining), • Divestment of 51% and royalties only apply to activities not apply to mining and industrial activities. • 20-year mining license and can be extended 2x10 years accordance with Law No.4/2009, while for the industry for companies operating in accordance with Law No.5/1984 about perindusterian, • Ministry of Energy Mineral Resources should develop a map of potential mineral and energy potential maps and road maps compiled Perindusterian Ministry hilirisasi Minerals, • Minimal processing and refining constraints (appendix Ministerial Regulation No.7/2012) will be reviewed and adjusted to the ability of the industry.

  40. PERTANIAN DI INDONESIA • Penghasil biji-bijian nomor 6 di dunia • Penghasil beras nomor 3 setelahChina dan India • Penghasil kopi nomor 4 • Penghasil coklat nomor 2 setelah Pantai Gading dan Ghana • Penghasil lada putih nomor 3 • Penghasil karet alam nomor 4, • Penghasil cengkehnomor 1 • Penghasil sawit nomor 2

  41. Dari sisi impor tahun 2010 Indonesia masih impor; • Beras, gula, kedelai, gandum • Jagung, ternak sapi, tepung telur, susu bubuk, • Makanan olahan, singkong dan kacang tanah

  42. Tujuan Kebijakan Pertanian • Memajukan pertanian • Mengusahakan agar pertanian mjd lbh produktif • Meningkatnya produksi & efisiensi produksi • Tingkat pendapatan petani meningkat • Tingkat kesejahteraan petani & masyarakat meningkat Undang-Undang, Peraturan Pemerintah, Keputusan Presiden, Keputusan Menteri, dll

  43. kebijakan pemerintah pada sektor pertanian diperlukan karena beberapa hal: untuk stabilisasi harga input dan output kegagalan pasar timbul karena eksternalitas. Beberapa bentuk intervensi pemerintah seperti pajak, subsidi, pengawasan regulasi perlu ditetapkan sehingga biaya penerimaan akan sepenuhnya menggambarkan biaya eksternalitas.

  44. Kebijakan pemerintah Indonesia di bidang pertanian mencakup beberapa hal: • kebijakan harga • kebijakan perdagangan • Kebijakan subsidi • Kebijakan struktural • Kebijakan pengaturan • Kebijakan fasilitas • Kebijakan intervensi

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