Climate Change and Natural Disasters: Issues

1. Climate Change and Natural Disasters: Issues Regional Coordination and Support for the EU-CA Enhanced Regional Cooperation on Environment and Water (WECOOP) Training 18-19 June, 2013 – Dushanbe, Tajikistan Juan Palerm, PhD

2. Climate Change • Environmental degradation Probability Consequences

3. Climate Variability vsClimate Change • Climate variability: shorter-term variations (daily, seasonal, annual, inter-annual, several years) • Climate change: long-term trends in climate averages (decades or longer) • Related to meteorological hazards • Contributes to some geophysical hazards Environment Canada (2012)

4. Climate variability and change in CA • Avg. annual temperatures 0.10ºC–0.31ºC/decade • Global trend: 0.06ºC/decade •  frequency of extremely hot days (≥40ºC) • recurrence of low temperatures • aridity (especially around Aral Sea) • variability in precipitation • Intense rainfall events more frequent and irregular (especially mountainous areas) Source: Thurman (2011)

5. Natural hazards and climate change in CA • Landslides • Expected to become more frequent • Can trigger glacial lake outbursts • River floods • Hydrological variability in river basins is more pronounced • Flood duration to increase and peak flow periods to shift • Anthropogenic factors also a factor • Flashfloods / mudflows • Expected to increase • Linked to rainfall, warming in winter (rain vs snow), increased aridity, accelerated melting of glaciers

6. Natural hazards and climate change in CA • Glacial lake outburst • Hazards to greatly increase, mainly in KR, TJ, KZ • Reduction of glacier areas, increasing numbers and volumes of glacial lakes • Drought • Has become more frequent in CA • Expected to increase exposure to drought, especially during summer • Impacts on crops and livestock

7. Climate change impacts Source: Zoï Environment Network (2009)

8. US Geological Service AP Photo / Armin Weigel e.g. Structural Socio-economic The Times of India, 2012 Liz Hempel, 2011

9. Key socio-economic vulnerabilities Adapted from Thurman (2011)

10. References • Commission on Climate Change and Development (2008) Links between disaster risk reduction, development and climate change. UN ISDR: Geneva. • Environment Canada (2012) Climate change concepts. http://www.cccsn.ec.gc.ca/?page=scen-intro Accessed 11/06/2013. • Hydrometeorological Service under the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan (2009) Second National Communication of the Republic of Uzbeistan under the UNFCCC. • Pollner, J; Kryspin-Watson, J and Nieuwejaar, S (nd) Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation in Europe and Central Asia. World Bank and Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). • Pusch (2004) Preventable losses: saving lives and property through hazard risk management – a comprehensive risk management framework for Europe and Central Asia. Disaster Risk Management Working Paper Series, No. 9, World Bank: Washington D.C. • Thurman, M (2011) Natural disasters in Central Asia: a synthesis. UNDP/BCPR. • UN ISDR (2009) Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster Risk Management Initiative (CAC DRMI): Risk Assessment for Central Asia and the Caucasus, Desk Review. • World Bank (2009) Adapting to climate change in Europe and Central Asia. World Bank: Washington. • World Bank (2010) Natural Hazards, UnNatural Disasters. World Bank and United Nations. • Zoï Environment Network (2009) Climate change in Central Asia, a visual synthesis.