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Luke Reedman (CSIRO), Liam Wagner (UQ) IAEE, Stockholm 21 June, 2011

Can the Large Scale Deployment of Distributed Generation Onto Electricity Markets Reduce Carbon Emissions? An Australian Case Study. Luke Reedman (CSIRO), Liam Wagner (UQ) IAEE, Stockholm 21 June, 2011. Outline. DG: What, why, how Australia’s Electricity Market Modelling Frameworks

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Luke Reedman (CSIRO), Liam Wagner (UQ) IAEE, Stockholm 21 June, 2011

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  1. Can the Large Scale Deployment of Distributed Generation Onto Electricity Markets Reduce Carbon Emissions? An Australian Case Study Luke Reedman (CSIRO), Liam Wagner (UQ) IAEE, Stockholm 21 June, 2011

  2. Outline • DG: What, why, how • Australia’s Electricity Market • Modelling Frameworks • Scenarios • Results

  3. DG: What, why, how • DG has many names and forms • Typically low emission when compared to current technology mix • Small part of current mix • Number of drivers increasing its uptake: • Increasing retail prices • Building regulations • Corporate goals • Incentive schemes • Impending ETS

  4. NEM overview • a Nameplate rating of generating units that are registered as “scheduled”. • b Sent-out energy from scheduled generating units. • Sources: AEMO (2010), ESAA (2010).

  5. Modelling frameworks Energy Sector Model (ESM) PLEXOS Optimal dispatch of generators across the NEM. Optimal bid stack formulation for each station for Short Run and Long Run Marginal Cost (SRMC and LRMC) recovery. Merit order of dispatch formulated based on bid stack. Physical operating characteristics of each generating unit Portfolio optimisation and emissions profiles Transmission and Interconnector flows. • MARKAL style bottom-up model of Australian energy sector • Annual time-step • State level • 17 DG and 16 CG tech types • 4 end-users • 13 road transport fuels • 5 engine types

  6. Scenarios Source: Commonwealth of Australia (2008), Australia’s Low Pollution Future.

  7. Scenario results – tech mix

  8. Scenario results – emissions intensity

  9. Conclusions/further work • Results indicate DG does have a role to play • Deployment leads to greater emissions reduction • 10-15% depending on scenario • Greater impact in the medium term • Non-market barriers need to be removed • More examination around key sensitivities needed • Continued refinement of modelling frameworks

  10. Contact Us Phone: 1300 363 400 or +61 3 9545 2176 Email: enquiries@csiro.au Web: www.csiro.au Thank you Energy Transformed Flagship Dr Luke Reedman Research scientist Email: luke.reedman@csiro.au

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