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Launch Vehicle Engine Configuration Reliability Analysis

Launch Vehicle Engine Configuration Reliability Analysis. Nikolas Fernald EMIS 7305 Spring 2011. Overview. Scope Background Approach Analysis Summary Conclusion Further Analysis. Scope. Analysis of rocket engine reliability for various rocket launch vehicle configurations.

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Launch Vehicle Engine Configuration Reliability Analysis

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  1. Launch Vehicle Engine Configuration Reliability Analysis Nikolas Fernald EMIS 7305 Spring 2011

  2. Overview • Scope • Background • Approach • Analysis • Summary • Conclusion • Further Analysis

  3. Scope • Analysis of rocket engine reliability for various rocket launch vehicle configurations. • 2 and 3 stage to orbit configurations. • 0, 1 and 2 engine out configurations* • What is an ideal per-engine reliability to produce a 99.0% system reliability for various launch vehicle configurations? * When applicable

  4. Goal • To gain a better understand of how engine reliability rates affect overall stage and vehicle engine reliability. • To find a reasonable medium for stage engine out capabilities.

  5. Background (1/3) • Commercial Launch Vehicle Development • Focus: • Cost • Reliability • Advanced Failure Tolerances • Savings: • Heritage rocket engine designs • Designs developed with lessons learned from Apollo, Shuttle, and Russian Rocket programs.

  6. Background (2/3) • Leading the Charge: SpaceX • 1 production engine family (Merlin 1C) • Services Falcon 1, Falcon 9 and Falcon 9 Heavy rockets. • 78k lbf Sea Level Thrust • 90k lbf Vacuum Thrust • 1 development engine family (Merlin 2) • Services: Not yet announced. • Theorized single engine Falcon 9 size rocket, 3 stage cargo vehicles. • 1.70M lbf Sea Level Thrust • 1.92M lbf Vacuum Thrust • Saturn V – F1 class engine

  7. Background (3/3) • Launch Vehicle Failures • 91 percent of launch vehicle failures in the past 2 decades can be traced back to one of three areas; Rocket Engines, Stage Separation Failure, and Avionics • Economic Impact • Technologies developed for space applications continue to be utilized to dramatically improve human life and progression. • As commercial launch vehicles drive down costs and increase reliability, the potential for economic leaps and bounds for exploration and technology is seeming limitless. • With greater access to space research and development will surly follow.

  8. Approach (1/2) • Examine rocket staging methods and requirements and develop series and reliability block diagrams. • Assess: • Reliably for the following configurations: (1st stage/2nd stage/(optional 3rd stage)) • 1/1 • 3/1; 3x3/1 • 5/1; 5/2; 5x3/1; 5x3/2 • 9/1; 9/2; 9x3/1; 9x3/2 • 3/3/1; 3/3/2 • 5/3/1; 5/3/2; 5/5/1; 5/5/2

  9. Approach (2/2) • Assess (Continued) • 0 engine out • 1 engine out capable* • 2 engine out capable* • Equations • Binomial distribution for engine out capabilities • n = engines • x = successful through flight • r = engine flight reliability * When applicable to configuration; 5 engines 1 out capable, 9 engines 2 out capable.

  10. Assumptions & Notes • Reliability Calculations • The same reliability factor for each stage is used in the calculation to simplify the assessment. • Current practiced task in industry to lower costs using engine family rather than different designs. • Equations • Each vehicle reliability equation is broken down between stages: Res1, Res2, Res3.

  11. 2 Stage Configurations 3/1 & 3/2 3x3/1 & 3x3/2 5/1 & 5/2 5x3/1 & 5x3/2 9/1 & 9/2 9x3/1 & 9x3/2

  12. 1/1 Configuration • 1 engine 1st stage • 1 engine 2nd stage • No engine out capability • Launch vehicle block diagram: • Reliability equation: • Results:

  13. 3/1 & 3/2 Configuration (1/2) • 3 engines 1st stage • 2nd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • No engine out capability • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 3/1 3/2 Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  14. 3/1 & 3/2 Configuration (2/2) • Reliability Equations • 3/1 • 3/2 • Results

  15. 5/1 & 5/2 Configuration (1/3) • 5 engines 1st stage • 2nd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • 1 engine out capability in 1st stage • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 5/1 5/2 Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  16. 5/1 & 5/2 Configuration (2/3) • Reliability Equations • 1st stage 1 engine out capable • 5/1 • 5/2 • 1st stage no engine out capable • 5/1 • 5/2

  17. 5/1 & 5/2 Configuration (3/3) • Results

  18. 9/1 & 9/2 Configuration (1/3) • 9 engines 1st stage • 2nd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • Up to 2 engine out capability in 1ststage • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 9/1 9/2 Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  19. 9/1 & 9/2 Configuration (2/3) • Reliability Equations • 1ststage 2 engine out capable • 9/1 • 9/2 • 1st stage 1 engine out capable • 9/1 • 9/2 • 1st stage no engine out capable • 9/1 • 9/2

  20. 9/1 & 9/2 Configuration (3/3) • Results

  21. 3x3/1 & 3x3/2 Configuration (1/3) • 3 engines in 3 common cores 1st stage • 2nd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • No engine out capability • Reliability Equations • 3x3/1 • 3x3/2

  22. 3x3/1 & 3x3/2 Configuration (2/3) • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 3x3/1 3x3/2 Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  23. 3x3/1 & 3x3/2 Configuration (3/3) • Results

  24. 5x3/1 & 5x3/2 Configuration (1/4) • 5 engines in 3 common cores 1st stage • 2nd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • Engine out capability in 1ststage • 1 out • 0 out

  25. 5x3/1 & 5x3/2 Configuration (2/4) • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 5x3/1 5x3/2 Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  26. 5x3/1 & 5x3/2 Configuration (3/4) • Reliability Equations • 1ststage 1 engine out capable • 5x3/1 • 5x/2 • 1ststage 0 engine out capable • 5x3/1 • 5x/2

  27. 5x3/1 & 5x3/2 Configuration (4/4) • Results:

  28. 9x3/1 & 9x3/2 Configuration (1/4) • 9 engines in 3 common cores 1st stage • 2nd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • Engine out capability in 1ststage • 2 out • 1 out • 0 out

  29. 5x3/1 & 5x3/2 Configuration (2/4) • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 9x3/1 Common Core • 9x3/2 Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  30. 9x3/1 & 9x3/2 Configuration (3/4) • Reliability Equations • 1ststage 2 engine out capable • 9x3/1 • 9x3/2 • 1st stage 1 engine out capable • 9x3/1 • 9x3/2 • 1st stage no engine out capable • 9x3/1 • 9x3/2

  31. 9x3/1 & 9x3/2 Configuration (4/4) • Results

  32. 3 Stage Configurations 3/3/1 & 3/3/2 5/3/1 & 5/3/2 5/5/1 & 5/5/2

  33. 3/3/1 & 3/3/2 Configuration (1/2) • 3 engines 1st stage • 3 engines 2nd stage • 3rd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • No engine out capability • Reliability Equations • 3/3/1 • 3/3/2

  34. 3/3/1 & 3/3/2 Configuration (2/2) • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 3/3/1 • 3/3/2 • Results Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  35. 5/3/1 & 5/3/2 Configuration (1/4) • 5 engines 1st stage • 3 engines 2nd stage • 3rd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • Engine out capability in 1st stage • 1 out • 0 out

  36. 5/3/1 & 5/3/2 Configuration (2/4) • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 5/3/1 • 5/3/2 Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  37. 5/3/1 & 5/3/2 Configuration (3/4) • Reliability Equations • 1st stage 1 engine out capable • 5/3/1 • 5/3/2 • 1st stage 0 engine out capable • 5/3/1 • 5/3/2

  38. 5/3/1 & 5/3/2 Configuration (4/4) • Results

  39. 5/5/1 & 5/5/2 Configuration (1/4) • 5 engines 1st stage • 5 engines 2nd stage • 3rd stage • 1 engine • 2 engine • Engine out capability in 1st& 2nd stage • 1 out • 0 out

  40. 5/5/1 & 5/5/2 Configuration (2/4) • Launch vehicle block diagrams: • 5/5/1 • 5/5/2 Note: Stage reliability calculations are in series.

  41. 5/5/1 & 5/5/2 Configuration (3/4) • Reliability Equations • 1st& 2nd stage 1 engine out capable • 5/5/1 • 5/5/2 • 1st& 2nd stage 0 engine out capable • 5/5/1 • 5/5/2

  42. 5/5/1 & 5/5/2 Configuration (4/4) • Results

  43. Summary (1/2) Two Stage Analysis Results Three Stage Analysis Results Note: Maximum Reliability Configurations.

  44. Summary (2/2) • Engine out capability is nearly a must for stage engine configurations over 3 engines. • Common core configurations (#engines x 3) benefit significantly from engine out capability. • 3 stage launch vehicles benefit significantly from engine out capability. • Final stage engines greatly effect launch vehicle reliability due to the lack of engine out capability • Engine reliability greater than 99.75% is necessary for nearly all configurations to achieve a launch vehicle (engine only) reliability of 99.50%

  45. Conclusions • Engine out capabilities for stages with over 3 engines is nearly a must to maintain a 99.5% vehicle reliability. • For a 9 engine stage or core, a two engine out capability does not increase reliability with much significance. • A 3x3/1 or 3x3/2 configuration is not capable of high reliability due to the lack of a engine out capability.

  46. Recommendation • The final stage requires a highly reliable engine to maintain a high total launch vehicle reliability. A single engine final stage is preferable over a dual engine stage. • Achieving maximum engine out capabilities for a given stage is a recommended practice which can significantly drive reliability, especially in a three stage rocket. • The use of common engines between stages would seem to be highly beneficial such that costs are minimized a to drive up engine reliability numbers.

  47. Thank You

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