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Reliability Analysis

Reliability Analysis. Solomon Westerman, PM Week 5, 2/12/09. Mission reliability expected to increase with total system mass . Translunar 97.6%. Lunar Descent/Locomotion 93.8%. Reliability. Earth->LEO 94.1% – 99.2%. Phase Reliability. Launch vehicle (Dnepr) Launch vehicle (Delta II).

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Reliability Analysis

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  1. Reliability Analysis Solomon Westerman, PM Week 5, 2/12/09 [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 1

  2. Mission reliability expected to increase with total system mass Translunar 97.6% Lunar Descent/Locomotion 93.8% Reliability Earth->LEO 94.1% – 99.2% Phase Reliability • Launch vehicle (Dnepr) • Launch vehicle (Delta II) • Solar array • EP Propulsion • Battery • Antenna • Processor • LD Propulsion • Structure • Mechanical • Propulsion • Antenna New system failure modes Carry-through Reliability Dnepr Reliability Delta II Reliability Recommend Modify Launch Vehicle reliability calculation model Modify >90% reliability requirement [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 2

  3. Reliability Calculation Lunar Descent / Locomotion (estimated) Launch Vehicle Translunar Based on GEO Satellite Buses (SB) (optimistic) < 20 launches w/ heritage > 20 launches [Solomon Westerman] [PM] 3

  4. Backup Slides Failure breakdown by subsystem (modified data from Frost & Sullivan) • Dnepr launch data: Booster reliability 97% (http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/r36m.htm) • Delta II launch data: 125 successes 126 attempts (http://www.astronautix.com/lvs/delta.htm) • Satellite bus data based off LMT-A2100 • Similar power capability and propulsion system • Power and propulsion two most important failure modes • TMF data from A2100 failure modes (http://www.skyrocket.de/space/doc_sat/lockheed_a2100.htm) • System failure data from industry study by Frost & Sullivan (2004) (http://www.satelliteonthenet.co.uk/white/frost3.html )

  5. Backup Slides (II) • Lunar Descent / Locomotion success based on recent (1996+) US Mars lander / rover successes. • Mars Pathfinder (1996-1997) Success • Mars Polar Lander (1999) Failure • Spirit (2003) Success • Opportunity (2003) Success • A factor of 1/4 is to reduce the percentage of failure to 1/4 that of Mars missions. • Low sample size for lander / rover on Mars • Lunar missions less complex (no atmosphere, lower orbital velocities to mitigate) • Success/Total ratio for Mars missions is based on total mission success – not just descent/locomotion. The rest of the mission success has already been computed for the Lunar mission.

  6. Backup Slides (III)Translunar Reliability Calculation

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