Lecture to: Arlington Technological Association Col (R) Ted Hailes

1. Lecture to: Arlington Technological Association Col (R) Ted Hailes

2. The New Battlespace: 2030 • Future enemies • motivatedby resources, fear, and hate; • empowered through education; and • enabled through technology and globalization to directly challenge the US • The enemy will be different – the targets they present will be more difficult to find, harder to hit, more widely distributed, and more dangerous Research Question: How do we prepare the US military for these new challenges?

3. Research Technology accelerating at an exponential rate and the consequences harsh and real Attempted a prioritize list of future technologies to guide today's funding decisions for tomorrows challenges Guidance to senior decisions makers to understand the real impact of technology in 2030? • And how our defense systems and strategic concepts be adapted to deter an enemy in 2030?

4. Research Technology accelerating at an exponential rate and the consequences harsh and real Attempted a prioritize list of future technology to guide today's funding decisions for tomorrows challenges Guidance to senior decisions makers to understand the real impact of technology in 2030? • And how our defense systems and strategic concepts be adapted to deter an enemy in 2030?

5. Methodology • Student Participants • Line Officers – top 12% of peer group • Faculty selected for quality and diversity • All volunteers – higher workload for year • Student Preparation • Regional Studies • 45 in class hours on ISS • TDY to CIA, DIA, State • TDY to region (ex. Russia & China) • Technology • In-depth reading program • TDY to AFRL (WPAFB & ABQ) • 40 hrs in class on Technology • Research Methodology • 4 alternate futures for 2030 • Jihadist Insurgency • Failed State • Peer China • Resurgent Russia • 58 Concepts; 172 underlying tech • Quantitative operations analysis of all 58 concepts conducted against all four alternative futures assisted by

6. First a quick summary of the principle findings from 4 years of research Of academic interest – will show both methodology and results

7. Enduring Truths Most probable becomes very dangerous Truth Effect High WMD Conventional Insurgency Consequence Spectrum of Conflict Terrorist Individual Low Low High Probability

8. Enduring Truths Truth Effect

9. 17001800 1900 2000 Amount of new technology introduced 1800 - 1900 Enduring Truths Truth Effect Infusion of Technology Amount of new technology introduced 1900 - 2000 Amount of new technology introduced 2000-2025

10. Enduring Truths Truth Effect • Science & Technology Driven By • Profit • Social pressures • Scientific curiosity • Military requirements • Facts to Contemplate • ~70% of US R&D privately funded • ~70% of all R&D outside of US • Conclusion • US Government has little say over what is developed, who gets it or how it will be employed

11. Enduring Truths Effect Truth By preparing for the worst case scenario – the lesser included cases will be covered

12. Enduring Truths Effect Truth By preparing for the worst case scenario – the lesser included cases will be covered Exponential technological change largely driven by the synergistic effects of multiple science specialties and they can’t be isolated

13. Blue HorizonsBottom Line Upfront • Accepted premise – Exponential Technological Change • Tasking: • “…develop a prioritized list of concepts and their key enabling technologiesthat the U.S. Air Force will need to maintain the dominant air and space forces in the future” • Expected Results • A small list of key technologies would enable a large percentage of future concepts/systems • Preferred systems and underlying technologies would vary with the type of warfare • Actual Results • Synergistic impact of underlying technologies preclude a prioritized list – must invest across disciplines • In fact, preparing for the worst case scenario does prepare the AF to cover the lesser included cases such as counter-insurgent and irregular warfare

14. 2030 Alternate Futures: Rooted in National and AF Guidance “The United States must: Strengthen alliances to defeat global terrorism and work to prevent attacks against us and our friends…(and)…work with others to diffuse regional conflicts…” Alternate Futures: Failed State and Jihadist Insurgency “Our strategy seeks to encourage China to make the right choices for its people, while we hedge against other possibilities.” Alternate Future: Peer China “Russia has great influence not only in Europe and its own immediate neighborhood, but also in many other regions of vital interest to us…(but) recent trends point to a diminishing commitment to democratic freedom and institutions.” Alternate Future: Resurgent Russia

15. Superiority in Air, Space and Cyber Global Vigilance Global Reach Global Power Understand Command Deploy Maintain Replenish Engage Survive Detect In Air Identify Survive To Air Readiness In Air In Air In Air In Space integrate Comm To Space Sustain In Space In Space In Space In Cyber To Cyber On Surface Subsurface In Cyber In Cyber To Surface On Surface Subsurface On Surface Subsurface On Surface Subsurface International Reaction BH 2030 Research MethodologyQuantitative Analysis Model equation: Concepts scored across all four alternate futures using the following value model:

16. BH 2030 Research MethodologyQuantitative Analysis • Capability curves were created for each of 47 significant AF military capabilities in each scenario. • Values curves do vary by scenario • Each of the 58 concepts were then scored using these capability functions. Non-linear Step Function for Combat Aircraft Survivability (Resurgent Russia Scenario) Linear Mathematical Function for Space Launch Payload Capacity: ω=0.004X, where X=Payload in Pounds

17. BH 2030 Research MethodologyQuantitative Analysis • Capability Scores were then Multiplied by Value Scores • Value Scores were Determined by a Separate Set of Models – One for Each Future • Structure of the Model is the Same for Each Scenario, but the Weights are Different • Values at each level sum to 100 percent • Weights of model components vary by scenario

18. BH 2030 Research MethodologyQuantitative Analysis • Technology Model • 172 mutually exclusive but comprehensively exhaustive enabling technologies underpin the 58 concepts • Technologies scored points based on the value of the concept(s) they underpinned. • Model is a 172 x 58 x 4 three-dimensional matrix • Fundamental Model Equation is: • Output: A prioritized list of enabling technologies of greatest value to the AF 7,501,952 Components in the Model Reduced to a Prioritized List

19. Blue Horizons Alternate Futures

20. Resurgent Russia Why Russia? • Key supplier of world energy • Major world economy – high potential for rapid increase via wealth from hydrocarbon exports • Transitioning philosophy – Communism, ~ Democracy, to autocracy? • NATO expansion – regional tensions increasing • Rising nationalism and xenophobia • Large nuclear stockpile with modernizing conventional capabilities • Demands a role on the world stage

21. Peer China • Why China? • In 2030, world’s largest country in terms of population and GDP • A regional military peer with a limited—but growing—global power projection capability • A nation whose future strategic direction is still uncertain, but one who also has many strategic options

22. Failed StateCase Study – Nigeria • Why Nigeria? • Key US oil supplier; active insurgency (MEND) attacking oil infrastructure • Top 20 world economy • Disproportionate influence on regional stability – Nigeria’s failure can ignite wars between and within neighboring countries • Largest population in Africa • Growing Islamic population in the North follows Shari’a Law • Rampant institutional corruption; haven for transnational criminal enterprises

23. Jihadist InsurgencyCase Study – Middle East • Why the Middle East? • Disruption to vital oil resource • Wealth and military capability in hands of Jihadists → disastrous • Muslim holy cities must not fall into hands of radical Muslims • Regional power balance - Sunni counterweight to Shiia Iraq and Iran • Substantial population growth with poor outlook in labor economics fostering discontent • Existing low level insurgency – strong potential for expanded religious, ethnic, and tribal conflict

24. Blue Horizons 2008 Operational Analysis

25. Summary of 58 Concepts • Notional systems (in most cases) representing specific capabilities • Some top concepts are worth exploring for production • Concepts provide a vehicle for evaluating enabling technologies

26. Top Concepts Across All Alternate Futures Pathfinder 41 Enabling Technologies Integrated multi-spectral sensors for threat acquisition Flight systems incorporate self-diagnosis and repair Multiple technique jamming devices and arrays – arrays embedded in aircraft skin Able to control jamming swarms and coordinate other engagements through battle management system

27. Top ConceptsAcross All Alternate Futures Cyberspace UAV 11 Enabling Technologies A virtual “vehicle” in a virtual world Guarantees survivability of cyberspace in a high threat environment Provides a dynamic view of cyberspace Trusted integrated cyber-defense for AF and DOD networks

28. Top ConceptsAcross All Alternate Futures Hybrid High Energy Laser 13 Enabling Technologies Space-based mirrors enable nearly unattenuated laser propagation through space Mirror positioning would enable rapid DE attack of any unobstructed (by weather) target (air, ground, space) in real-time Able to destroy soft and medium targets Able to degrade some hard targets (e.g., burn wheels of armored vehicles, burn off tread from tanks) where soft spots exist

29. Rank Order of ConceptsAcross All Alternate Futures Ranking of key concepts relatively constant across alternate futures

30. Evaluating Technology Scores172 Technologies Across All Futures Knee? While there appears to be a “knee” in the curve…

31. Evaluating Technology ScoresPathfinder’s 41 Enabling Technologies Even the top concept requires technologies in the tail of the curve 57 of 58 Concepts Require Technologies in the Tail of the Curve

32. Blue Horizons - Bottom Line • Accepted premise – Exponential Technological Change • Tasking: • “…develop a prioritized list of concepts and their key enabling technologiesthat the U.S. Air Force will need to maintain the dominant air and space forces in the future” • Actual Results • Synergistic impact of underlying technologies preclude a prioritized list – must invest across disciplines • If you disinvest in selected technological areas – risk increased substantially • Preparing for the worst case scenario does prepare the AF to cover the lesser included cases such as counter-insurgent and irregular warfare

33. Surprises emerged – though a technological study - the human is still a critical part of the equation

34. Changing Role of Man and Machine Man’s “value added” is shifting: physical to cognitive to ethical Man is the machine Man controlling the machine Man employing the machine Man observing the machine

35. Impact: Human Driven Out of the Loop Exponential Technological Change forces humans out of the decision loop Orient • OODA Loop recognizes • Number of inputs • Time • Old news • OODA getting smaller • New news in the Age of Surprise • Increasing number of inputs • Time compressing at machine speeds to an “OODA Point” Decide Observe Input OODA Point Input Act Age of Surprise Input Input Input Input Orient Observe Decide Act

36. Factors Squeezing Humans Out of the Loop • OPERATIONAL REALITY: An inherent movement toward increased efficiency • HUMAN INTENT: Political and military imperative – machines do the dull, dangerous and dirty • EXPONENTIALLY RISING TECH: Technology providing better solutions at an increasing rate • This creates an Ethical Dilemma

37. The Man in the Loop Dilemma Policy Assumption • Man will stay in the control loop • Result: No Ethical Dilemma Ethic(s) = 0 Moral(s) = 0 Value(s) = 0 Reality • Constant and persistent drive to increase autonomous capability • Belief that brilliant machines will avoid human error generated by fear, emotion, agenda, speed or facts In fact, Exponential Technological Change is outpacing the ethical programming of unmanned technology

38. Approaches to Keep Man in the Loop • Intelligence • Augmentation • Pharmacology • Bio enhancement • Human-Machine connectivity • Artificial Intelligence • Machine to machine • Autonomous action • Education & Training • Adjust requirements • Foster agility • Select/promote right players Genomics Neuroscience Human Factors Education Training Computer Science Psychology Pharmacology