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Time Span Analysis

Learn about Aoristic Analysis, its application in temporal and spatial data analysis, and probability assessment using weighted analysis. Utilize formulas and methods for simplified time span analysis. Explore incident probability calculations and search blocks. Obtain valuable resources for further learning.

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Time Span Analysis

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  1. Time Span Analysis David Attaway

  2. Time Span Analysis Also known as Aoristic Analysis…

  3. What is Aoristic? 1840-50 Aorist… a + horistos Dr. Jerry Ratcliffe, Temple University “not” “limited/defined” indefinite indeterminate “without defined occurrence in time” Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  4. Temporal Analysis! Probability Analysis? Spatial Temporal Analysis? Aoristic? Space Time Analysis! Weighted Analysis? Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  5. To help with the confusion: Aoristic Phewww Time Span Analysis Yeaaa! Thank God! Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  6. Simplified the Process (Now in a Template) Formulas…. Hour End: =IF(MINUTE(F2)<10,HOUR(F2),HOUR(F2)+1) Data Entry with cell formatting: ddd m/d/yy h:mm AM/PM Hour Start: =HOUR(E2) First Day’s Probability: =(ROUNDDOWN(A2+1,0)-A2)/(B2-A2) Day of week start: =TEXT(L2,"ddd") Day’s Between First and Last Day: =(B2-A2)-(ROUNDDOWN(A2+1,0)-A2)-(B2-ROUNDDOWN(B2,0)) Last Day’s Probability: =(B2-ROUNDDOWN(B2,0))/(B2-A2) Weight: =MIN(1,1/O2) Days: =((M4)-(L4)) Weight per hour: =IF($K2>=$J2,IF(AND(Q$1>=$J2,Q$1<=$K2),$P2,0),IF(OR(Q$1<=$K2,Q$1>=$J2),$P2,0)) Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  7. Park my car: April 12th, 2014 8:00 am Notice my car is stolen April 12th, 2014 4:00 pm Total of 8 Hours unattended… Weight! Probability! Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  8. ***INCIDENT*** Calculates the probability that an incident occurred at a location: Burglary 2: 1/1/2014 6:00AM to 1/1/2014 6:00PM Burglary 1: 1/1/2014 12:00AM to 1/2/2014 12:00AM Burglary 4: 1/1/2014 3:00PM to 1/1/2014 4:00PM Burglary 3: 1/1/2014 12:00AM to 1/1/2014 12:00PM Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  9. Burglary 4: 1/1/2014 3:00PM to 1/1/2014 4:00PM Burglary 3: 1/1/2014 12:00PM to 1/2/2014 12:00AM Burglary 2: 1/1/2014 6:00AM to 1/1/2014 6:00PM Burglary 1: 1/1/2014 12:00AM to 1/2/2014 12:00AM Analysis POWER comes w/ many points for analysis!!! Total of 1 Hour unattended… Total of 12 Hours unattended… Weight! Probability! Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  10. Gives you…. Search Blocks of Equal Duration 12:00 AM 12:00 PM 6:00 AM 6:00 PM 12:00AM Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  11. Probability and Weight Esri User Conference 2015 - Demo Theater: Time Span Analysis

  12. Demo David Attaway

  13. Crime Incidents – Southern California (All Types) Map Pin Map of last 3 months Symbolized by type UNCLASSIFIED//DEMO USE ONLY

  14. Burglary Thefts Time Reported - Southern California • Distribution of Residential burglary • The times are divided into: • Morning*, • Afternoon*, • Evening*, • and Night* (four 6-hr intervals). • *(The times of day represent the time in which the vehicle theft was discovered) • Residential burglary reporting is highest in the Afternoon (1200-1800). Map OHS Auto Thefts Morning (06-12) Map OHS Auto Thefts Afternoon (12-18) Morning Afternoon Map OHS Auto Thefts Night (00-06) Evening Night UNCLASSIFIED//DEMO USE ONLY

  15. Time Span Analysis Residential Burglary • The greatest probability of times when the residential burglaries: • Between 12 – 1pm (1200 – 1300) • and • 5pm – 6pm (1700 – 1800). UNCLASSIFIED//DEMO USE ONLY

  16. Want to learn more? Get more information on Time Span Analysis… • Documentation • Perform Time Span Analysis: • http://solutions.arcgis.com/intelligence/exploitation-analysis/ • Link near the bottom of page – “Perform Time Span Analysis” • Related Esri Training and Tutorials • Time Span Analysis Template • Additional Location to download: • TimeSpanAnalysis_1_0_0_for_ArcGIS10_2.zip

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