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Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks

Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks. CENTRAL ALASKA PARKS Scenario Drivers and Climate Effects. http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/wp-content/uploads/iceroad.jpg. alaskarenewableenergy.org. www.nenananewslink.com. Climate Drivers.

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Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks

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  1. Climate Change Planning in Alaska’s National Parks CENTRAL ALASKA PARKS Scenario Drivers and Climate Effects http://foreignpolicyblogs.com/wp-content/uploads/iceroad.jpg alaskarenewableenergy.org www.nenananewslink.com

  2. Climate Drivers • Climate drivers are the critical forces in our scenarios planning process • Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty • Climate drivers table specific for SE Alaska were compiled by John Walsh and Nancy Fresco of SNAP (see handouts). • All scenarios are created by examining the intersection of two drivers, creating four sectors • Selection of driversis crucial to the planning process • The importance of drivers is directly related to their potential effects

  3. Monthly temperature projections for Nenana A1B (mid-range) scenario)

  4. Projected monthly precipitation for Nenana

  5. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation[from JISAO, Univ. Of Washington]Alaska warm phase Alaska cold phase

  6. Mean annual soil temp. (2 m depth)  2000-2009  2050-2059

  7. Simulated annual burn area in Alaska (ALFRESCO) Alaska Division of Forestry http://forestry.alaska.gov/wildland.htm

  8. Climate Effects Climate effects are the outcomes of the critical forces or drivers, as expressed by significant changes in particular parks. Points to consider include: • Time frame (20 years? 100 years?) • Uncertainty (of both driver and effect) • Severity of effect (and reversibility) • Scope: what parks, who is impacted? • Repercussions: what is the story? • Feedback to policy

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