AGA’s Programme on Livestock in Climate Change

1. AGA’s Programme on Livestock in Climate Change December 1st, 2009 Pierre Gerber Livestock Policy Officer, AGAL

2. Outline • Livestock’s Long Shadow • why? • main results • aftermath • Current programme of work on climate • overview • ongoing activities • Conclusions

3. Livestock’s Long Shadow • Land use • Rangeland represents about 26% of emerged land • Feed crops use about 33% of arable land • Climate change • 18% of GHG emissions related to livestock food chains • C storage potential • Water • Livestock sector represents 8% of all entropic water use, 90% of which for feed production • Biodiversity • IUCN identifies livestock as one of the threats to 1699 endangered species (red list) • Can also have positive effects on biodiversity conservation Technical options for mitigation are largely available but conducive policy frameworks and institutions are missing.

4. The aftermath of LLS • Raised awareness • academia, general public, policy debate • over simplification and distortion/selection of messages • focus on climate change • basic results stood the test • Many studies relying on food chain / live cycle approach: available results and databases but fragmented • Expectations to move on to an action plan

5. Aim of current activities on climate change • Provide specific policy and technology options to mitigate Greenhouse Gas emissions of livestock production • identify ”low hanging fruit” • enteric methane • manure management • restoration of degraded pastures in the Neotropics • Provide scientific underpinning to climate negotiations • improve the quantification calculations • quantify economic and trade implications associated with policy recommendations • identify technology packages adapted to farming systems and agro-ecological zones

6. Pilot project Policy analysis Quantification of emissions LCA analysis Economic modeling Technical recommendations Policy recommendations Overview of current activities Programme on the reduction of GHG emissions from animal food chains

7. Life cycle analysis – dairy product

8. 200 180 160 140 120 kg CO2 eq/kg animal protein 100 80 60 40 20 0 Pig Poultry Beef Milk Eggs Range of GHG for commodities in OECD-countries Source: DeVries & DeBoer (2009)

9. Range of GHG emissions within one production system: landless pig production Source: Backus (2009)

10. Attributing emissions Percentage of total GHG emissions 100 90 Meat Manure Traction Savings Insurance 80 70 60 50 40 Meat 30 20 Milk Milk 10 0 Sub Saharan Africa Netherlands

11. Pilot project Policy analysis Quantification of emissions LCA analysis Economic modeling Technical recommendations Policy recommendations Overview of current activities Programme on the reduction of GHG emissions from animal food chains

12. Livestock sector purchases permits from other sectorsEmissions permit revenue (mil. USD), 2013 Cap = 100% of 2008 emissions

13. “High-cap” for non-Annex 1 countries Emissions permit revenue (mil. USD), 2013 Cap = Annex 1: 84.5% of 2013 emissions Non-Annex 1: 100% 2013 emissions

14. Pilot project Policy analysis Quantification of emissions LCA analysis Economic modeling Technical recommendations Policy recommendations Overview of current activities Programme on the reduction of GHG emissions from animal food chains

15. Pilot project Policy analysis Quantification of emissions LCA analysis Economic modeling Technical recommendations Policy recommendations Overview of current activities Programme on the reduction of GHG emissions from animal food chains

16. Conclusions • Livestock’s Long Shadow provided an overview of livestock’s impact on major global environmental issues • Since then the work of AGAL has mostly focused on climate change • Analytical work aimed at underpinning the selection of technologies (AGAP) and policy options (AGAL) • No strong collaboration with NGOs so far Contact: pierre.gerber@fao.org