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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market. Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105. Harry Truman is purported to have said,.

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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

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  1. The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105

  2. Harry Truman is purported to have said, All my economists say, “on the one, or on the other hand”…what I really need is a one-handed economist.

  3. Excess bank reserves Is it a recovery or an expansion? Is the difference economic or a crisis in confidence? European debt crisis Volatile stock market Consistently higher energy prices Inflation U.S. Debt Crisis Mortgages “underwater” Persistently high unemployment

  4. Corporate profits are up, but not payments to workers

  5. Consumers are staying in cash

  6. Disposable Personal Income is Flat

  7. Consumerand Business Confidence remains low Iraq War Hurricane Katrina Debt Ceiling Debate? Great Recession

  8. Is the Economic Glass Half Full? or Half Empty? • Unemployment rate falling • More sectors contribute to job growth • Corporations cash-rich • 31 months of job growth • Spending is up, consumers lowering debt burden • Consumer confidence is improving • House prices near bottom? • UI initial claims are down • Real estate, construction and govt. still reeling • European debt/bank crisis still looming • Slowing global GDP? • Energy/gas prices? • Lack of confidence in demand, political system • Still tight lending standards & terms • Net worth down$9.4 tril from peak

  9. Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek

  10. The global labor market is very messy

  11. Comparative Total Population Change in Texas 2000-2010

  12. Texas Population Change 2000-10 Where Texans Live Where Texans have moved

  13. Texas becomes more Hispanic

  14. Tough Competition: Generational Employment in Texas 2000 - 2010

  15. How many Millenials does it take to screw in a light bulb? 1. One to the instructions 2. One to post the instructions on the wall of their page 3. One to post the video of their work showing collaboration One Baby Boomer to tell them what a terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they did with the light bulb

  16. Texas Labor Market Statistics (SA)Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)

  17. Declining Rates of Workforce Participation LFPR E/P

  18. Regional Job Growth RatesBig 10 Texas metro areas – 4th Quarter to 4th Quarter Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Texas Workforce Commission

  19. Texas 2000-2011 3rd Quarter Wages

  20. Texas Goods producing Industries Employment Index 1995-2012

  21. Texas Industry Growth March 2011-12 YOY

  22. Eagle Ford Shale: 24 county region $1.3 billion in gross state product, $2.9 total output $511 million in salaries (2010) Supports 12,601 jobs $108 million in tax revenues 2,828 drilling permits issued through 2011

  23. Quits are up. Layoffs are Flat. Implications? Quits Layoffs

  24. Texas New Hires 1stQTR2011

  25. Fastest Growing Texas Occupations 2018 - Projected

  26. Texas Job Posting Activity: The Conference Board HWOL

  27. Where The Job Postings Are Located? Based on Job Postings listed online for previous 90 days as Feb. 20, 2012, compiled by Wanted Analytics and the Conference Board for TWC

  28. Source: Forbes magazine and Monster.com

  29. Education Mismatch: Texas Unemployed vs. Job Postings 47% 84%

  30. Trends in U.S. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded

  31. YUM Brands53.0% Du Pont 62.4% IBM 58.1% Boeing 42.2% Intel80.0% Coca Cola73.5% Corning 75.6% Emerson Electric56.8% Accenture 56.4% Microsoft43.4% Hewlett-Packard 63.9% Wal-Mart 36.2% JNJ50.2% Caterpillar 61.8% Colgate80.0% ExxonMobil 81.8% Campbell Soup26.1% Kellogg 26.8% 3M Corporation63.2% UPS 26.3% Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:Percent of 2009 Revenue Outside U.S.

  32. Short-term Forecasted Job Growth by Region

  33. Employer Hiring Progression: Shifting Business Practices • Work existing full-time workers more hours • Move part-timers to full-time workers • Employ temporary or leased workers • Use contract workers for fixed periods • Reconsider work/hiring location based on potential growth markets & cost structure • Outsource all non-core business functions • Consider strategic partnerships to increase sales, limit labor liability • Take advantage of H1B and L1 visas • Add full-time domestic employees (FTE)

  34. Percent Job Losses in Recessions 1990-2007 Optimistic Baseline Pessimistic

  35. Regional employers say they want… Good communications skills: Can you….. Explain what you’re doing (to co-worker or customer)? Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)? Ability to listen to instructions? 2. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you determine what will probably happen next) 3. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job openings) Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are “engaged” in their work) Can you work with people who are of a different age, race, gender and education level than you?

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