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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market. Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105. Are you a Left Brain (analytical, data driven, logical) or Right Brain (creative, intuitive, philosophical)?.

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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

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  1. The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI) Texas Workforce Commission richard.froeschle@twc.state.tx.us (512) 936-3105

  2. Are you a Left Brain (analytical, data driven, logical) or Right Brain (creative, intuitive, philosophical)?

  3. The Bad News…The Money economy and the Job Market are 2 different birds The Good News… A Recovery in the Money economy is definitely at hand, e.g. GDP, profits, stocks

  4. Excess bank reserves Is it still an economic downturn or a crisis in confidence? European debt crisis Fear of double dip recession Volatile stock market Persistently high unemployment Mortgages “underwater”

  5. Consumers are staying in cash

  6. Corporate profits have recovered

  7. Texas Consumer Behavior

  8. Harry Truman is purported to have said, All my economists say, “on the one, or on the other hand”…what I really need is a one-handed economist.

  9. Is the Economic Glass Half Full? or Half Empty? • Unemployment rate falling • More sectors contribute to job growth • Corporations cash-rich • 29 months of job growth • Spending is up, savings rate up, consumers lowering debt burden • Consumer confidence is improving • House prices near bottom? • UI initial claims are down • Real estate, construction and govt. still reeling • European debt/bank crisis still looming • Slowing global GDP • Energy prices? • Lack of confidence in demand, political system • Still tight lending standards & terms • Net worth down$9.4 tril from peak

  10. The Interworkings of the Global Economy

  11. Comparative Total Population Change in Texas 2000-2010

  12. Texas Population Change 2000-10 Where Texans Live Where Texans have moved

  13. Texas becomes more Hispanic

  14. Tough Competition: Generation X, Y, and Baby Boomer Employment in Texas 2000 - 2008

  15. How many Millenials does it take to screw in a light bulb? 1. One to the instructions 2. One to post the instructions on the wall of their page 3. One to post the video of their work showing collaboration One Baby Boomer to tell them what a terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they did with the light bulb

  16. Texas Private Job Growth By Time period (Nov 2011)

  17. Texas & U.S. Labor Market Statistics

  18. Goods Producing Employment Trends (1995-2011)

  19. Texas Industry Growth December 2010-11 YOY

  20. Detailed View: Texas Job GrowthNov 2010 - Nov 2011

  21. Detailed View: Texas Job Decline Nov 2010 - Nov 2011

  22. $3,786 $2,391

  23. Job Churn: San Antonio Private Sector New Hires

  24. Eagle Ford Shale: 24 county region $1.3 billion in gross state product, $2.9 total output $511 million in salaries (2010) Supports 12,601 jobs $108 million in tax revenues 2,828 drilling permits issued through 2011

  25. Texas Job Posting Activity: The Conference Board HWOL 313,045

  26. Education Mismatch: Texas Unemployed vs. Job Postings 47% 84%

  27. Trends in U.S. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded

  28. “In China today, Bill Gates is Britney Spears. In America today, Britney Spears is Britney Spears. And that is our problem.” Jerry Yang, Co-Founder of Yahoo!

  29. YUM Brands34.5% (50.1%) Ford 30.4% (53.1%) Boeing 34.3% (40.8%) Intel58.8% (84.3%) Coca Cola61.0% (73.8%) Corning (70.7%) Emerson Electric40% (51.6%) Accenture(60.5%) Microsoft(38.7%) IBM57.9% (57.9%) Schlumberger (84.9%) JNJ38.2% (47.1%) John Deere25.1% (34.6%) Colgate69.4% (80.3%) Nike50.3% (62.6%) Campbell Soup (31.0%) Molson Coors (55.4%) 3M Corporation (61.4) Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:Percent of 2000 & 2007 Revenue Outside U.S.

  30. Short-term Forecasted Job Growth by Region

  31. Employer Hiring Progression: Shifting Business Practices • Work existing full-time workers more hours • Move part-timers to full-time workers • Employ temporary or leased workers • Use contract workers for fixed periods • Reconsider work/hiring location based on potential growth markets & cost structure • Outsource all non-core business functions • Consider strategic partnerships to increase sales, limit labor liability • Take advantage of H1B and L1 visas • Add full-time domestic employees (FTE)

  32. Percent Job Losses in Recessions 1990-2007 Optimistic Baseline Pessimistic

  33. Headwinds…

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