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Distributed Power Opportunities in the Developing World

Distributed Power Opportunities in the Developing World. Presentation to the Distributed Wind Energy Association F. Andrew Dowdy February 13, 2013. The Challenge of Energy Access. 1.3 Billion people without electricity 2.7 billion without clean cooking facilities

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Distributed Power Opportunities in the Developing World

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  1. Distributed Power Opportunities in the Developing World Presentation to the Distributed Wind Energy Association F. Andrew Dowdy February 13, 2013

  2. The Challenge of Energy Access • 1.3 Billion people without electricity • 2.7 billion without clean cooking facilities • Ramifications include economic development, human health, deforestation • Problem will persist in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia • Additional $48 billion/year for next 20 years needed • Problem will require private sector investment, new commercial models

  3. What is the Value of Electricity? Cellphone Charging, Batteries $45-50/kWh Lighting, $6-40/kWh Water Pumping, $1.35/kWh Cooking, $0.07-0.13/kWh Air Conditioning, <$0.05/kWh

  4. How Big is the Distributed Market? • According to IEA, universal access by 2030 requires mini-grid (<500 kW) and off-grid applications totaling: • 96 GW of solar (20% C.F.) • 33 GW of small wind power (45% C.F.) • 19 GW of biomass (60% C.F.) Source: IEA WEO 2011

  5. Potential for Small Wind Power • Current Global Market* at End of 2010: • 521,000 SWT’s globally • 443 MW of combined capacity (avg. 850 W) • IEA estimate of 33 GW of off-grid and mini-grid wind implies: • 75 times 2010 global capacity? • @100 kW = 330,000 SWT’s? • @10 kW = 3.3 million SWT’s? • @3 kW = 11 million SWT’s? (*Based on 2012 Small Wind World Report, WWEA)

  6. Barriers to Commercialization • Financing Schemes • Investors available for viable projects • Partial subsidies may be appropriate • Sell Energy Services, not kWh • “Anchor customers” • Schools, other government • Cell phone towers • IT Payment Systems • Pre-pay meters • Mobile banking • Replicable Systems • “Learning Curve” cost reduction • Provides scale Challenges Possible Solutions • Capital Investment: • Poorest populations don’t have capital to buy these systems outright • Operational Management • Need to generate revenue from very small individual sales, with low administrative costs • Need to maintain systems (technical, security questions) • Scale • No one is interested in a handful of projects

  7. Opportunities for the Private Sector? • Military, disaster relief applications? • Potentially hundreds, thousands of applications • Is there a Ray Kroc model? • Not a market for solar panels or wind turbines, • But a market for integrated systems • Volume of sales key to costs and ultimate profits • Standardized systems • Distribution networks

  8. Questions?

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