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Current Trends in Child Sexual Abuse

Current Trends in Child Sexual Abuse. David Finkelhor Crimes against Children Research Center University of New Hampshire. Midwest Regional Children’s Advocacy Center. Sexual Abuse Substantiation Rates: 1990-2009. 61% Decline (1992-2009). Rate per 10,000 Children (<18). 5% Decline

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Current Trends in Child Sexual Abuse

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  1. Current Trends in Child Sexual Abuse

    David Finkelhor Crimes against Children Research Center University of New Hampshire Midwest Regional Children’s Advocacy Center
  2. Sexual Abuse Substantiation Rates: 1990-2009 61% Decline (1992-2009) Rate per 10,000 Children (<18) 5% Decline (2008-2009) Source: NCANDS
  3. Physical Abuse Substantiation Rates: 1990-2009 55% Decline (1992-2009) Rate per 10,000 Children (<18) 0% Decline (2008-2009) Source: NCANDS
  4. Neglect Substantiation Rates: 1990-2009 10% Decline (1992-2009) Rate per 10,000 Children (<18) 0% Decline (2008-2009) Source: NCANDS
  5. US Maltreatment Trends 1990-2009: All States Neglect Physical Abuse (x2) Sexual Abuse (x3) Source: NCANDS
  6. But What About…? Differences in state definitions Implementation of SACWIS, Dual track systems CPS staff overloaded: Increasing reluctance to substantiate? Increased legal concerns? Mandated reporters/public less willing to get involved?
  7. If NCANDS declines are real what would we expect to see? Similar trends in child victimization surveys that do not rely on CPS data Similar trends in related indicators Crime victimization Youth well-being Alternative explanations not supported
  8. National Incidence Study of Child Abuse and Neglect (NIS): 1993-2005 (Endangerment Standard) *Change in rate not statistically significant
  9. Juvenile Sex Victimization Trends, Crime Survey, 1993 - 2005 52% Decline *Known offenders are family members or acquaintances; unknown offenders are strangers or unidentified. Source: National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS), each year, for number of incidents; Crimes Against Children Research Center (CCRC) calculations for rates.
  10. Juvenile Sexual Abuse Trends inMinnesota (1992 – 2007) 29% Decline % Reporting Abuse 28% Decline Note: respondents are 6th, 9th, and 12th grade students enrolled in public schools in selected Minnesota school districts. Source: Minnesota Student Survey, 1992-2007
  11. Juvenile Physical Abuse Trends in Minnesota (1992 – 2007) 18% Decline % Reporting Abuse Note: respondents are 6th, 9th, and 12th grade students enrolled in public schools in selected Minnesota school districts. Source: Minnesota Student Survey, 1992-2007
  12. DECLINES54% 59% 62% 69% 52% Juvenile Victimization Trends, 1993 – 2005 (NCVS) Note: Age 12 – 17 years; 3 year averages.
  13. % Students (12-18) Reporting Criminal Victimization at School During Previous 6 Months 60% Decline1995-2005 Source: Dinkes, R., Forrest Cataldi, E., Kena, G., & Baum, K. (2006). Indicators of school crime and safety: 2006 (NCES 2007-003/NCJ214262). Washington, DC: US Departments of Education and Justice. Survey data..
  14. % Teenagers Reporting Being in a Physical Fight in the Past Year 16% Decline1991-2007 Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
  15. Intimate Partner Violence(Nonfatal Victimizations) 68% Decline 68% Decline Source: Rennison, Callie. 2003. Intimate Partner Violence, 1993-2001. Bureau of Justice Statistics, NCJ 197838 and updates from Callie Rennison (6/9/2006)
  16. Juvenile Family Violence Trends in Minnesota (1992 – 2007) 19% Decline Note: Respondents are 6th, 9th, and 12th grade students enrolled in public schools in selected Minnesota school districts. Source: Minnesota Student Survey, 1992-2007
  17. Teen Runaway Arrests Source: O.J.J.D.P. (December 31,2007). Juvenile arrest rates by offense, sex, and race. Available: http://ojjdp.ncjrs.org/ojstatbb/crime/excel/JAR_2006.xls
  18. Lifetime Prevalence Drug UseIncluding Inhalants Dug Use Decline 97-10 8th: 24% 10th: 20% 12th: 11% Source: Monitoring The Future (http://monitoringthefuture.org/data/10data/pr10t1.pdf )
  19. The Overall Violent Crime1993-2005 58% decline1993-2005 Source: Catalano, S.M. (2006). National Crime Victimization Survey Data
  20. Percentage of Students Ages 12 to 18 who Feared Attack at School or on the Way to School, Selected Years, 1995-2007 55% decline Source: ChildTrends Data Bank; http://www.childtrendsdatabank.org/sites/default/files/38_Fig01.jpg
  21. Percentage of Students Ages 12-18 who Reported Being Targets of Hate-Related Words at School During the Previous Six Months SA Sub 1990-2005* 27% Decline1999 - 2007 *Source: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, School Crime Supplement (SCS) to the national Crime Victimization Survey, 1999-2007
  22. Teen Suicide Rate per 100,000 Teens (15-19 yrs) 38% Decline1990-2007 Source: Child Trends Databank
  23. Percentage of High School Students Who Thought Seriously About Attempting Suicide1991-2009 52% Decline1991 - 2009 Source: CDC – Youth Risk Behavior Survey
  24. Teenage Birth Rate1990-2007 Rate per 1,000 Females (15-17 yrs old) Source: National Vital Statistics Reports: Sept. 25, 2001, Vol. 49 (10); June 6, 2002, Vol. 50 (10); Dec.17, 2003,Vol. 52 (10); Nov.23, 2004 Vol.53(9); Dec. 10, 2007, Vol. 56(7).
  25. Source: Simpson, K. (2010). Dispelled kidnap myths do little to allay parents' fears. The Denver Post http://www.denverpost.com/news/ci_16725742?source=email
  26. PA Sub 1990-2005* The Percentage of 9th Graders Who Have Ever Had Sexual Intercourse1991-2009 19% Decline1991 - 2009 *Source: Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Youth Risk Behavior Survey
  27. Percentage of Students who had Sexual Intercourse with Four or More People During their Life Grades 9-12 30% decline1991-2005 Source: Youth Risk Behavior Survey
  28. Trends in Recidivism in Washington: 1990-2006 Washington State Institute for Public Policy, January 2011
  29. International Trends in Chronic Bullying Victimization * P <0.05. based on inflated Confidence Intervals by 1.4 to account for design effect
  30. Problems with Alternative Explanations Changes in CPS systems (e.g., dual track, SACWIS) happened after the most substantial declines in the mid-1990s No evidence that less serious or less clear-cut cases are declining at greater rates than more serious or clear-cut cases No evidence that increased caseloads explain decline
  31. Almeida, J., Cohen, A. P., & Molnar, B.E. (2008). Are Increased Worker Caseloads in State Child Protective Service Agencies a Potential Explanation for the Decline in Child Sexual Abuse?: A Multilevel Analysis Child Abuse and Neglect  32:3  M367-375. “Results indicated that the positive association between size of worker caseload and rate of CSA was not because workers were unable to investigate allegations of abuse due to time constraints, but rather the existence of a true decline in incidents of substantiated sexual abuse cases during the latter part of the 1990s.”
  32. No Evidence that Willingness to Report is Down No increase in % anonymous reports –down slightly since 1990s National Survey of Adolescents: rate of youth reporting sexual assaults increased 14% to 29% (95-05) Finkelhor, et al. (2010): 50% of youth victimizations reported to a professional in a 2008 survey; up from 25% in a 1992 survey.
  33. Data Support a Real Decline The value of NCANDS data is supported by the similar trends found in other very different surveys Size of the declines seen in sexual abuse and physical abuse are very large Declines have NOT been seen for neglect. Important to understand why trend is different
  34. International Trends – Bulllying Victimization Health Behavior in School Aged Children Surveys WHO – sponsored Nationally representative samples of  11, 13 and 15 y o Classroom self administered questionnaire “How often have you been bullied in school in the past couple of months Chronic = 2 or more times this month Molcho, M., Craig, W., Due, P., Pickett, W., Harel-Fisch, Y., Overpeck, M. D., & HBSC Bullying Writing Group (2009). Cross-national time trends in bullying behaviour 1994-2006: Findings from Europe and North America. International Journal of Public Health, 54, S225-S234.
  35. Characteristics of Decline that Need to be Explained Broad range of crime, violence and child welfare indicators Onset in early to mid 1990s Steepest decline in mid 1990s No obvious regional or demographic pattern International scope Broad decline across all types of victims and perpetrators Came after some indicators deteriorated
  36. Weak Explanations Crack cocaine epidemic abatement Gun control Megan’s laws, sex offender registries Abortion legalization, fewer unwanted children Removal of environmental lead Demographic changes
  37. Possible Mechanisms Economic improvement Increased agents of social intervention More effective interventions Psychopharmacology Aggressive policing Changing norms and awareness Technology and surveillance
  38. Economic Improvement of 1990s
  39. Unemployment RateSeasonally Adjusted Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Online data retrieval (1/10/03). http://data.bls.gov
  40. “Troop Surge”
  41. More Effective Prevention and Intervention
  42. Psychiatric Pharmacology
  43. % with drug therapy Treatment for Depression During YearAll Ages 79% 45% Source: Olfson et al. (2002a)
  44. Psychiatric Medication Usage by Children (0-18) in the US Any Stimulant Antidepressant Source: Olfson et al. (2002b)
  45. Increased Justice System Activity
  46. Deterrence
  47. Changing Norms and Awareness
  48. Parental supervisionOrganizational managementEducational programsTherapy
  49. Technology: Surveillance and Detection
  50. Why do I Feel so Overwhelmed?
  51. Will policy makers lose interest?
  52. Possible Lessons Big improvements possible and quickly
  53. Possible Lessons Big improvements possible and quickly Need to look at broader range of influences
  54. Possible Lessons Big improvements possible and quickly Need to look at broader range of influences Be careful what we abandon
  55. Possible Lessons Big improvements possible and quickly Need to look at broader range of influences Be careful what we abandon Need better epidemiology
  56. Infectious Diseases Designated as Notifiable at the National Level During 2005 Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) Anthrax Botulism Brucellosis Chancroid Chlamydia trachomatis, general infection Cholera Coccidioidomycosis Cryptosporidiosis Cyclosporiasis Diptheria Domestic arbovital diseases, neuroinvasice and non-neuroinvasive California serogroup virus disease Eastern equine encephalitis virus disease Powassan virus disease St. Louis encephalitis virus disease West Nile virus disease Western equine encephalitis virus disease Ehrlichiosis Enterohemorrhagic Escherichia coli (EHEC) infection EHEC O157:H7 EHEC Shiga toxin-positive, serogroup non-O157 EHEC Shiga toxin-positive, not serogrouped Giardiasis Gonorrhea Haemophilus influenzae, invasive disease Hansen disease (leprosy) Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome Hemolytic uremic syndrome, postdiarrheal Hepatitis A, viral, acute Hepatitis B, viral, acute Hepatitis B, chronic Hepatitis B, virus infection, perinatal Hepatitis C, viral, acute Hepatitis C, virus infection (past or present) Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection
  57. Infectious Diseases Designated as Notifiable at the National Level During 2005 (cont). Influenza-associated pediatric mortality Legionellosis Listeriosis Lyme disease Malaria Measles Meningococcal disease, invasive Mumps Pertussis Plague Poliomyelitis, paralytic Psittacosis Q fever Rabies Rocky Mountain spotted fever Rubella Salmonellosis Severe acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus (SARS) Shigellosis Smallpox Streptococcal disease, invasive, group A Streptococcal toxic shock syndrome Streptococcus pneumoniae, invasive disease Syphilis Tetanus Toxic-shock syndrome (other than streptococcal) Trichinellosis Tuberculosis Tularemia Typhoid fever Vancomycin-intermediate Staphylococcus aureus infection (VISA) Vancomycin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection (VRSA) Varicella infection Yellow fever
  58. Cartoon
  59. Resources Finkelhor, D. & Jones, L.M. (2006). Why have child maltreatment and child victimization declined? Journal of Social Issues, 62(4): 685-716. Jones, L.M., Finkelhor, D., & Halter, S. (2006). Child maltreatment trends in the 1990's: Why does neglect differ from sexual and physical abuse. Child Maltreatment, 11(2): 107-120. Finkelhor, D. & Jones, L.M. (2004). Explanations for the decline in child sexual abuse cases. Juvenile Justice Bulletin-NCJ199298 (pgs. 1-12). Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office. Jones, L.M. & Finkelhor, D. (2001). The decline in sexual abuse cases. Juvenile Justice Bulletin - NCJ184741 (pgs. 1-12). Washington, DC: US Government Printing Office. www.unh.edu/ccrc
  60. Finkelhor, D. (2008). Childhood victimization: Violence, Crime, and Abuse in the Lives of Young People. New York: Oxford University Press. NEW Daniel Schneider Child Welfare Book of the Year Award

  61. THE END

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