Changing Age Features of the Rocky Mountain West Population

1. Changing Age Features of the Rocky Mountain West Population The chart shows population counts by single ages for persons under 1 year of age up to age 84 for the last two Censuses – 1990 and 2000. The figures in the chart combine state totals for the five Rocky Mountain states. Population growth in the period was concentrated among adults between their late 30s and late 50s – classic “baby boomers,” or persons born between 1946 and 1964. Growth also was focused among young adults in their early and mid- 20s and among older children and teen-age children, or what is often referred to as the baby boom “echo.” In looking forward toward the 2010 Census, the large population in their late 30s to late 50s, will shift to their late 40s to late 60s, moving steadily toward retirement ages and continue shifting. And the younger population concentrated in their late teens and early 20s will shift to late 20s and early 30s.

2. Montana Population by Age, 1990 vs. 2000 The upper chart shows the number of persons residing in Montana by single age from youngest to oldest in 1990 and ten years later in 2000. The lower chart shows how population changed for each age during this ten-year period. Most of the state’s population growth during the ‘90s was among persons at ages between their early 40s and late 50s – classic “baby boomers” or persons born between 1947 and 1963. Some population growth also concentrated among children and young adults between the ages of 12 and 25. This latter group is the children of baby boomers or the boomer “Echo” population. Considerable population decline actually occurred for persons at ages between the boomer group and echo group. There also was a fall-off in population for young children. These “ripples” or “waves” in the population age profile will continue to play out in the future.

3. Projected Shifts in the Population of Montana by Age The upper chart shows how population changed in Montana by single age from youngest to oldest between 1990 and 2000. The lower chart shows how population is projected to change by the U.S. Census Bureau (March, 2005, projections) between 2000 and 2010. The growth in population that was concentrated among persons between their early 40s and late 50s in the ‘90s is projected to be concentrated between persons in their early 50s to late 60s in the current decade. The echo population also will continue to age, shifting growth to persons between their early 20s and mid-30s. And during the current decade the “echo-echo” population will come into being, reflected in the recent increase in births.

4. Projected Popu-lation Growth by Age in the Next Decade – 2010 to 2020 The chart at the right shows how Montana’s population is projected to change by age between 2010 and 2020. During the next decade growth in the state’s population will shift to persons in their early 60s to late 70s and Montana is in fact projected to have one of the largest populations 65 and older as a percent of its total by 2020. The echo group or the children of boomers is shown in growth among persons from their early 30s to mid 40s. However, this echo group is projected by the Census Bureau to be much smaller than the boomer group. In turn, the “echo-echo” group is projected to be much smaller than the echo group. As we look out in front of us, we can see that population growth will continue to manifest itself in ripples and waves, with each successive wave of growth smaller than its immediate predecessor. This pattern of growth has significant implications. The fastest growth will occur among seniors and health care demand will continue to rise and housing needs will change. The number of persons at will move up and down at ages where college students are primarily drawn, as well as for high schools and elementary schools. The labor force of Montana will very likely shrink in size in the future as more and more persons leave the workforce for retirement and there are not enough persons entering the workforce to replace them.

5. Future Pop. Change in Montana by Age Grouping The projected aging of Montana’s population over the next 20 years can be viewed by examining how the population is expected to change by age grouping. The upper chart shows the population under 18 (high school and younger), the population 18 to 33 (young post-high school adults and those at ages of family formation and childrearing), the population 34 to 49 (young and middle-age adults), the population 50 to 64 (older adults at pre-retirement ages), and the population 65 and older. The under 18 population, which grew by only 3% in the ‘90s, is projected to fall by 8% between 2000 and 2010, then grow slightly in the subsequent two decades. The young adult population, which saw very little change in the last decade, would grow by 10% in the current decade before declining in each of the subsequent periods. The older adult working age population between 50 and 64, which saw massive growth in the ‘90s will also see very high growth in the current period before beginning a decline. And the 65 and older population, which grew by only 13% in the ‘90s, will grow by 20%, 46%, and 27% in the subsequent three decades. As a result of these age shifts, Montana will have one of the largest populations over 65 of any state in the country in future years.

9. How Population Aging is affecting Birth & Death Trends in Montana By simply looking at long-term trends in the number of births and number of deaths statewide in Montana over time, you can see some of the effects of population aging. The chart shows the total number of births by residents of Montana since the mid-‘50s through 2007. Births actually peaks back in 1957 and have never returned to that level again. This peak was associated with the peak in births by today’s “baby boomers.” Births once again rose to another relative high in 1981 and this peak was associated with the time when boomers themselves were having kids. The more recent smaller bubble that may continue to rise is associated with the kids of boomers now having kids themselves. As the population continues to age, deaths are steadily rising and these will begin to rise more rapidly as boomers reach 65 and older over the next decade.

10. “Natural Population Change” in Montana – Urban-to-Rural The chart shows net population change as a result of only births and deaths in Montana for the seven urban or regional center counties, for counties nearby these centers, and for the rest of the more rural counties in the state. Most of the population growth now occurring in Montana from natural change is happening in the seven more urban centers. Very little population growth is happening in the more rural areas of the state, even though births are slightly up with the emergence of the “echo-echo” group, or the children of the children of boomers. In the future as birth rates fall, natural change in most of Montana’s more rural areas will go “negative,” that is, there will be more deaths than births, and this negative natural change will add to the already existing population loss occurring because of negative “net migration” in most of these rural areas.

11. Trends in Births-Deaths in Montana – West vs. East The upper chart shows total births and deaths each year in the western mountain region of Montana since the late ‘70s. The lower chart shows the same for counties in eastern Montana. Birth totals in the west have recovered to levels in the early ‘80s. However, in the east, total births have risen modestly but are well below levels in the early ‘80s when the current “echo” age group was being born. The difference between births and deaths is what is called “natural change” and western Montana is currently adding more and more people through natural change as the “echo-echo” group is being born. This should continue for a few more years. And as births eventually begin to decline, deaths will continue rising.

13. Trends in Natural Population Change in Missoula Co. The upper chart shows the total number of annual births and deaths by residents of Missoula County since the late ‘70s through 2007. In 2007 there were 1,369 births by Missoula County residents, up steadily from a low of 992 in 1997, but still below the high of 1,385 in 1980 during the peak in births among the “echo” group. This bubble in births in the early ‘80s translated into record high school enrollment levels in Missoula County in the late ‘90s. The current rise in births is associated with children of boomers now themselves having children and this rise in births will probably continue for at least a few more years before gradually subsiding. Deaths are steadily rising, setting new records almost each year as they do. Total deaths in the county will begin to rise more rapidly in another 4 to 6 years, with the steady aging of the large boomer population.

14. Recent Changes in Missoula County’s Younger Population The children of baby boomers or those in the “echo” group, are now at ages where they are also starting families and having children, which can be thought of as the “echo-echo” group. This can be seen in the gradual increase in those under 5 years of age living in the county gradually increasing. However, children 5 to 13 decreased in numbers between 2000 and 2004, before beginning to increase again between 2004 and 2005. And children 14 to 17 who compose most of the high school age population declined in numbers between 2002 and 2005, before beginning to increase. An important factor in Missoula’s future regards what will happen to the size of the school age population and how large the echo-echo population will be.

15. Recent Changes in Montana’s Younger Population – Regional Center Cos. Versus Rest of State The younger population is being “regenerated” in most of Montana’s urban centers. However, this isn’t the case in most of Montana outside these regional centers. The upper chart shows population change among segments of the younger population in the seven regional center counties. The bottom chart shows change in the rest of Montana outside these centers. The “echo-echo” group is taking shape in Montana’s regional centers with year-to-year growth in the under 5 population. And this is translating into a turnaround in decline among older children. However, this isn’t happening in the more rural areas.

16. Recent Changes in Missoula County’s Older Population The upper chart shows yearly estimates of Missoula County’s population that is 45 and older broken down into three groups – those 45 to 64, which accounts for the baby boomer group; those 65 to 84, and those 85 and older. The oldest of the boomer group is 62 or 63 this year, which means that over the next 20 years, the boomer group will steadily move past the age of 65. This will result in the 65 and older population of Missoula roughly doubling in size over the next two decades. You can see the beginnings of this steady rise in the 65 and older population now.

17. Recent Changes in Missoula County’s 18 to 64 Population The upper chart shows yearly estimates of Missoula ’s population of young adults, ages 18 to 24, those 25 to 44, and older adults between 45 and 64. The lower chart shows recent yearly changes in these age groups. As noted previously, Missoula has continued to steadily add to its population between 45 and 64 – baby boomers. It has also added to the number of younger adults that are 25 to 44, but in significantly smaller numbers. It is important to note that the county is no longer adding to its young adult population – those between 18 and 24 who are residents of the county. There have been pronounced declines in these younger adults since 2003. The high school age population peaked in about 2001 or 2002 in Missoula and this is translating into declines in these declines in young adults.

18. Population Growth Over Time in Missoula and Ravalli Counties The upper chart shows population levels of the two counties since 1969. The lower chart shows changes for the two counties for 5-year periods over time. Missoula County’s population stood at about 59,000 in 1970, grew to more than 76,000 in 1980, then saw very little growth in the ‘80s. Growth accelerated in 1990, continuing through 1997, reaching 93,000. It then slowed a bit, but rose to over 96,000 in 2000 and to over 107,000 in 2008. Growth in Ravalli Co. followed a similar pattern, rising from 25,000 in 1990 to 36,000 in 2000 and to 41,000 in 2008.

23. Personal Income Growth among States, 1990 – 2007 Taken as a group and as a single region, the Rocky Mountain West has the fastest growing economy in the U.S., as measured in total personal income growth since 1990. Four of the five Rocky Mountain West states are among the top six states in income growth and the 5th, Montana, is ranked 13th among states in income growth. This pace of growth in income over the last two decades propelled Montana and other Rocky Mountain West states through the early stages of the national recession. While this growth has slowed in the region, a similar pattern of growth will largely emerge as the national slowdown subsides over the next year or so.

24. Personal Income Expansion in Montana Over Time The upper chart shows levels of total personal income for Montana since 1980 with figures in millions of 2005 inflation-adjusted dollars. Income totaled almost $16 billion in 1982, rose only slightly to over $16 billion in 1988, but since then has seen almost uninterrupted expansion. Income surpassed $18 billion in 1992, then accelerated to over $24 billion in 2002. Growth has continued since then and reached almost $29.5 billion in 2007. The lower chart examines this income growth for 5-year periods over time. Income grew by less than half a billion dollars between 1982 and 1987. Its growth then picked up, rising by $1.7 between 1987 and 1992. Growth has accelerated in each successive 5-year period since, rising by $2.6 billion, then $3.8 billion, and by $4.9 billion in the most recent period from 2002 to 2007.

25. Urban-to-Rural Distribution of Personal Income Growth in Montana The upper chart shows the distribution of recent total personal income growth in Montana between 1996 and 2006 by county with counties arrayed from left to right by urban-rural grouping and by amount of income growth. Income grew by $12.3 billion between 1996 and 2006 in nominal dollars. Of this growth, $8.7 billion occurred in the seven regional centers (over 70% of the total), and another $2.6 billion in growth occurred in the 27 counties nearby these regional centers (21%). The remaining 8% of income growth was accounted for by the other 22 more rural and isolated counties in Montana.

26. Personal Income Levels Over Time in Missoula and Ravalli Counties The upper chart shows total personal income for each county since 1969. The lower chart shows percentage changes in income for 5-year periods over this period. The personal income base of Missoula County rose from $850 million in the early ‘70s to $1.5 billion in the early ‘80s. Growth stagnated in the ‘80s. However, since then, the county has seen virtually uninterrupted growth, with total income reaching $3.2 billion in 2006. Personal income in Ravalli County rose from $430 million in the late ‘80s to over $1 billion in 2006.

30. Total Employment Growth among States, 1990-2007 Four of the five Rocky Mountain West states are among the top ten states with the fastest growing employment since 1990 and the 5th, Wyoming, is ranked 11th. The economies of all these states are not only growing, but changing and restructuring.

31. Urban-to-Rural Distribution of Employment Growth in Montana The upper chart shows the distribution of recent employment growth in Montana between 1996 and 2006, as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Commerce Department. Counties are arrayed from left to right based upon their urban-rural grouping and by employment growth. The lower chart then shows employment change over this ten-year period for the three county groupings. Jobs increased by 115,000 over this period, with 86,815 of this job growth (nearly 76%) occurring in the seven regional center counties. About 21% of the growth (23,578 jobs) was in counties nearby these centers. The remainder (less than 4%) was in rural counties.

32. Employment Levels in Missoula and Ravalli Counties Over Time The upper chart shows total employment, including all full- and part-time jobs in Missoula and Ravalli Counties, since 1969 through 2006. Employment has steadily grown in Missoula County over time, rising from 25,000 in 1970 to 40,500 by decades end. Employment dipped temporarily in the early ‘80s, but has steadily grown since the mid-80s. The lower chart shows growth in employment in the two counties for 5-year periods over time.

37. Per Capita Income Levels in Missoula & Ravalli Cos. Over Time Per capita income is simply calculated by dividing the total personal income of an area by its total population. It is one of the most used measures of area economic wellbeing. The upper chart shows per capita income levels for Missoula and Ravalli Counties over time in 2005 inflation-adjusted dollars. Per capita income is higher in Missoula County than Ravalli, standing at almost $31,000 in 2006 in Missoula versus $26,000 in Ravalli. Growth over the last two 5-year periods has been strong.

48. Employment by SIC Sector in Missoula Co. Over Time The chart shows levels of total employment – including all full- and part-time jobs - by major SIC sector in Missoula County between 1970 and 2000. Services, along with retail trade, have led growth overall. Services jobs grew from less than 5,000 in 1970 to over 23,000 in 2000 – a more than four-fold increase. Retail trade jobs increased from less than 5,000 to 13,800. Each of the other sectors have considerably fewer jobs than services and retail trade – all with job totals of less than 5,000. The large services sector in the SIC codes was split into 9 separate major sectors in the NAICS codes.

49. SIC Sector Employment Change in Missoula Co. 1970 to 2000 The upper chart shows employment growth over the three decades between 1970 and 2000 by major sector. The lower chart shows how this growth changed the makeup of the area economy. Employment growth was heavily concentrated in services, and this growth has increased in each successive ten-year period. As a result, services share of total employment rose from less than 20% in 1970 to nearly 35% in 2000. Retail trade employment rose from 18% to almost 21%. Manufacturing fell from 14.4% to 5.6%.