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Sunitha Raju Professor and Chairperson Indian Institute of Foreign Trade New Delhi.

Implications of RTAs on the Competitiveness of Indian Agricultural Exports. Sunitha Raju Professor and Chairperson Indian Institute of Foreign Trade New Delhi. Indian Export (Mil US$). Source : Economic Survey, 2010-2011. India’s Agricultural Trade Surplus (1990-2010). US Million $.

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Sunitha Raju Professor and Chairperson Indian Institute of Foreign Trade New Delhi.

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  1. Implications of RTAs on the Competitiveness of Indian Agricultural Exports SunithaRaju Professor and Chairperson Indian Institute of Foreign Trade New Delhi.

  2. Indian Export (Mil US$) Source: Economic Survey, 2010-2011

  3. India’s Agricultural Trade Surplus (1990-2010) US Million $ Source: Comtrade Database

  4. Structure of India and World Export (% Share) Source: UN COMTRADE (WITS), HS 1988/92 classification

  5. Trends in Major Agricultural Exports(As % of World Exports) Source: Calculations based on SITC rev 3, UN Comtrade database

  6. Direction of India’s Exports (Share %) Source: India Trades, CMIE

  7. India’s Export Competitive Products • Share of competitive products share increasing • accounted for 76.2% of export value in 2006 as against 69.3% in 2003 • Concentration of competitive products in the following products: meat (02), Fish (03), Edible Fruits & nuts (08), Tea & Pepper (09), Cereals (10), Oil seeds (12), Food residues (23) & Tobacco (24) • Competitive products share low or non existent : cut flowers, edible vegetables, sugar, dairy, preparation of cereals These trends imply that India is able to maintain export competitiveness in primary and semi processed products

  8. Sustaining Export Markets • Traditional markets are declining or stagnant . (Fish, Cereals Coffee, Tea and Black pepper). • Export markets expanding for products diversified into value added exports. (Fish, Coffee, Black Pepper, Oil Seeds and Processed Food). • In traditional markets, India is loosing market share to competing suppliers. • China (Fish, Ground Nut, Liquour, Vegetable) • Vietnam (Vegetables, Cashew Nut, Pepper) • Sri Lanka (Tea) • EU and USA (Tobacco Products)

  9. ASEAN-India Agricultural Trade Characteristics (US Mil $) Source : WITS Comtrade Database Note : Agricultural products includes HS chapter 1-24, 40 and 52

  10. India’s Export to ASEAN having Increasing Shares(US Mill. $) Source : WITS Database Note : Figures in the brackets are ASEAN’s share in India’s export to the World

  11. India’s Major Export to ASEAN Source: UNCTAD Comtrade Database

  12. India's Potential Export to ASEAN (US Mil. $) Source : UNCTAD Comtrade Database Note : Figures in brackets represent India’s share in total import of ASEAN

  13. India’s Major Imports from ASEAN Imports required to meet domestic supply deficit vegetable fats, chickpeas, natural rubber Imports with potential threat Tea, Pepper, Turmeric & Tobacco Other rising imports (cereal & vegetable products, cocoa)

  14. India’s Major Import from ASEAN Contd….

  15. India’s Major Import from ASEAN Source: UNCTAD Comtrade Database

  16. India’s Potential Import from ASEAN Source : UNCTAD Comtrade Database

  17. Duty Categories: Import Trends of the Listed Products (2000-2008) (000’ $) Source: UNCTAD Comtrade Database Note: Figures in brackets are % share to the total imports

  18. Duty Categories: A Comparison of NT & Exclusion Products of ASEAN Member Countries with that of the World Imports (% share) Source: UNCTAD Comtrade Database Note: Figures in brackets are share in world imports

  19. Duty Structure Across Product Groups Tariff lines under Exclusion & Sensitive more than Normal Track Cereals, Vegetable fats, Beverage & Spirits, Tobacco products Tariff lines under Normal Track more than Exclusion & Sensitive Food residues, Cereal preparation, Sugar & confectionary, Fish preparation Equal distribution of tariff lines under Normal Track and Exclusion & Sensitive Natural rubber, Vegetable preparation, Oil seeds, Edible fruits, Edible vegetables Contd…..

  20. Duty Structure Across Product Groups Coverage of tariff lines is more than what is being imported Implicit protection Vegetable fats, Fish, Dairy, Edible fruits, Natural rubber & vegetable preparation Implicit disprotection Meat products, Meat preparation, Edible Vegetables, Cereal preparation, Food residue.

  21. Product-wise Potential Imports under Various Duty Categories Source- Authors own calculations

  22. India’s Potential Import from ASEAN Source: - Calculation based UNCTAD Comtrade Database Note- figures in the brackets are ASEAN’s share in India’s Import from the world. Products code in Bold are Sensitive and Exclusion listed, in normal are NT1 and NT2, and Italic are other products

  23. Is There an Import Threat EL & SL account for 88% import of Rubber, 34% for Food residues, 36% for Cocoa products, Coffee, Tea & Spices : 43% NT1 & NT 2 account for 99% of imports of Edible Vegetables and Fruits. Tariff reduction nominal for Coffee, Tea & Spices; Oilseeds. Tariff reduction for products which do not threaten food security or Livelihood (Edible veg, Edible fruits, Beverages & spirits, Sugar & Confectionery)

  24. Conclusions 1. Most rising imports placed under EL. Thus, duty concessions have no significant impact 2. Imports of Tea, Coffee, Spices are rising from World and ASEAN because of Advance License scheme. Will continue to rise in post-FTA period 3. For Natural Rubber, the duty structure does not deviate from the existing trends 4. With respect to Edible Oils, there is a need to take comprehensive view of imports under other FTA’s particularly ISLFTA 5. Export potential opportunities exist but would require developing export competitiveness

  25. INDIA - SRI LANKA FTA

  26. Duty Concessions under ISLFTA Contd….

  27. Duty Concessions under ISLFTA Source: Kelegama and Mukherji, 2007

  28. ISLFTA: Comparison of Average Agricultural Imports from Sri Lanka and World('000 US$) Contd….

  29. ISLFTA: Comparison of Average Agricultural Imports from Sri Lanka and World('000 US$)

  30. Sri Lanka's Import from World and India (Neg. list prepared by Sri Lanka Contd..

  31. Sri Lanka's Import from World and India (Neg. list prepared by Sri Lanka Source: UNCTAD Comtrade Database

  32. Sri Lanka’s Import from India and World (Residue list Products) Figs in 1000$ Source -UNCTAD Comtrade Database

  33. India’s Major Export to Sri Lanka Source- WITS Comtrade Database Note- RL- Residual List, NL-Negative List (Both the lists are prepared by Sri Lanka)

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