Global Security Issues for Strategic Leaders

1. Global Security Issues for Strategic Leaders 4 Oct 2008

2. Agenda • Globalization • Transnational Security Issues • Failing and Failed States • Global Hotspots

3. Global Environment (Forces & Trends) Competing Values Economic Conditions Globalization Information Revolution International Law International Organizations Non-State Actors Threats: Conventional and Transnational WMD National Purpose (Enduring Beliefs, Ethics and Values) • Domestic • Environment • (Forces & Trends) • Federal system of government • Bureaucracy • Economic conditions • Social needs • Electoral politics • The media • Public opinion • National style, self-image • Presidential style National Interests Strategic Vision National Policy National Objectives (Ends) Strategic Concepts (Ways) National Power (Means) Feasibility, Suitability, Acceptability Risk Assessment Strategy

4. Global Security Focus • 1945 – 1991: • Cold War rivalry and relative stability • International order of sovereign states and international organizations • 1991 – 2001: Post Cold War • Missing a strategic focus • Entropy in the international order • 2001 – present • Global War on Terror and preoccupation with “ungoverned spaces” and Iraq • Post WWII institutions unsuited to current international challenges

5. Globalization Increasing global connectivity, integration and interdependence • Transnational Actors • Transnational Issues • Eroding Sovereignty • Institutional “Gaps” • Positive Effects • Negative Effects Information, ideas, people, products and problems can quickly cross national and regional boundaries

7. Globalization’s Dark Side • Drastic disruption of traditional societies • Massive population explosion • Urbanization • Uneven wealth distribution • “Anti-system” groups use transportation and communication linkages

8. Global Security Issues • Terrorism…Islamic Radicalism • WMD Proliferation • Conflicts • Great power rivalry • Interstate confrontation • Intrastate conflict • Transnational Crime • Drug Trafficking • Weapons Proliferation

9. “Globalization has exposed us to new challenges … • Public health challenges like pandemics (HIV/AIDS, avian influenza) that recognize no borders. • Illicit trade, whether in drugs, human beings, or sex, that exploits the modern era’s greater ease of transport and exchange. • Environmental destruction, whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earthquakes, or tsunamis.” • The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 2006

10. Unconventional Global Security Issues • Demography • Climate Change • Disease • Financial Instability • Corruption • Migration • Poverty • Resource scarcity: • Food • Water • Energy - Transnational - Regional - Complex - Interconnected - Uncertain - Unpredictable

11. 800 million are starving One billion lack clean drinking water Two billion lack sanitation Two million are dying from AIDS each year 175 million international migrants Nearly1 billion illiterate adults Several billion affected by global warming

12. “Climate change can act as a threat multiplier for instability in some of the most volatile regions of the world, and it presents significant national security challenges for the United States.” - National Security and the Threat of Climate Change, April 2007

13. Intervention? Climate Change • Effects: • Extreme weather • Drought • Flooding • Sea level rises • Retreating Glaciers • Habitat Shifts • Increased disease Weak/Failing State • Results: • Food production declines • Diseases increase • Clean water becomes scarce • Migration in search of resources • Internal conflict and spillover • Violent Religious Extremism • Movement away from liberal democracy • Radical ideologies • Humanitarian crisis

14. “America is now threatened less by conquering states than we are by failing ones.” 2002 National Security Strategy of the United States

15. Failed/Failing State: A Definition When state structures lack political will and/or capacity to provide the basic functions needed for poverty reduction, development and to safeguard the security and human rights of their populations When the state and civil society are unable to engage in constructive interactions leading to deficits in effectiveness, legitimacy or both

16. Failed / Failing and Recovering (Fragile) State: • Rampant corruption stymies domestic investment and growth • Ungoverned, lawless regions where predation is normal • The elite systematically exclude other groups, thus creating grievances • Reliant on international actors to provide basic services

17. “…The recent past vividly demonstrated the consequences of failing adequately to address the dangers posed by insurgencies and failing states. Terrorist networks can find a sanctuary within the borders of a weak nation and strength within the chaos of social breakdown. A nuclear-armed state could collapse into chaos, and criminality. Let’s be honest with ourselves. The most likely catastrophic threats to our homeland – for example, an American city poisoned or reduced to rubble by a terrorist attack – are more likely to emanate from failing states than from aggressor states. Robert M. Gates, 29 September 2008

18. So A State is Fragile: So What? • Fragile states are 15 times more prone to civil war than developed countries • Violence is more extreme, lasts longer and frequently “spills-over” • Overwhelming source of the world’s refugees and internally displaced persons • Many fragile states are among the world’s worst abusers of human rights Think about the consequences of the failure of a nuclear armed state…

19. Fragile states provide benefits to terrorist and criminal organizations such as: • safe havens • conflict experience • settings for training and indoctrination • access to weapons and equipment • financial resources • staging grounds and transit zones • targets for operations • pools of recruits

20. "Weak and failing states serve as global pathways that facilitate the spread of pandemics, the movement of criminals and terrorists, and the proliferation of the world's most dangerous weapons." -Condoleezza Rice, 2006

21. 6. DRC 7. Afghanistan 8. Ivory Coast 9. Pakistan 10. CAR 1. Somalia 2. Sudan 3. Zimbabwe 4. Chad 5. Iraq 11. Guinea 12. Bangladesh 13. Burma 14. Haiti 15. North Korea 16. Ethiopia 17. Uganda 18. Lebanon 19. Nigeria 20. Sri Lanka

22. Global Conflict

23. GDP (PPP) per capita

24. Adult (15-49) HIV Prevalence Rate (%), 2006

25. Life Expectancy

26. Africa • 26 of the world’s 30 poorest countries • Many countries lack adequate governance • Epicenter of the world’s most serious health pandemic: HIV/AIDS. • 7 of the top 10 countries at risk of collapse (Failed States Index): • Somalia, Sudan, Zimbabwe, Chad, Democratic Republic of Congo, Côte d’Ivoire, Central African Republic, • Somalia: failed state • Sudan (Darfur) • Zimbabwe • Nigerian oil fields • Kenya: Dec 2007 contested election • Impact of China’s involvement

27. The Americas • Drugs, Gangs, Corruption, Poverty • The Andean Ridge: • Drug producing region:, (Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, and Bolivia) a major source of cocaine and heroin, with lingering insurgencies, weak economies, and unstable democracies • Central America, Caribbean and Mexico: • Drug Transit zone with gangs, violence and corruption • Tri-border area of Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay - contains a large ethnic Arab population and may be a haven for Al Qaeda fund raising cells as well as other Middle Eastern terrorist groups • Politics: Failure of Conservatives to solve problems of poverty was catalyst for a (re)turn to the left • Populist leaders in Venezuela, Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua • Cuba after Fidel? • China has begun to court energy-rich Latin America

28. Asia • The Asian Century – a shift in the global balance of power? • Emerging Superpowers: China and India • Nuclear North Korea • Taiwan Security • Afghanistan – “I’m not convinced we’re winning in Afghanistan, I’m convinced we can.” • Elections in 2009 • Pakistan – The perfect storm: weak government, nuclear weapons, radical Islamic extremists and terrorists (Al Qaeda), sectarian conflict, Taliban insurgents, a vast ungoverned tribal region, Kashmir • Sri Lanka

29. Europe • “Old Europe” or “Venus?” • Anti-Americanism • NATO in Afghanistan • European Union: has it lost it’s way? • Immigration challenges • Economically stagnant

30. Middle East • Iran – the next nuclear power? • Elections in 2009 • Arab-Israeli conflict: two state solution? • Iraq – • Radical Islamic extremism – “the transcendent challenge of the 21st century?” • Sectarian conflict

31. Russia-Eurasia • Retreat from democracy • Energy windfall has fueled Russia’s economic revitalization • Bully in its own neighborhood • Georgia and beyond

32. Global Security Transnational Crime Hostile Russia Anti-Americanism Homeland Security Ethnic Conflict WMD Proliferation Energy Security Terrorism Corruption Emerging China Violent Islamism Migration Climate Change Jihad Genocide Disease Illicit Drug Trade Failed & Failing States Illicit Arms Trade Resource Scarcity Illicit Human Trafficking Youth Bulge HIV/AIDS Poverty

33. If we are to meet the myriad challenges around the world in the coming decades, this country must strengthen other important elements of national power, both institutionally and financially, and create the capability to integrate and apply all the elements of national power to problems and challenges abroad. Robert M. Gates, 26 November 2007 “Many of the problems we face – from the threat of pandemic disease, to proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, to terrorism, to human trafficking, to natural disasters – reach across borders. Effective multinational efforts are essential to solve these problems.” The National Security Strategy of the United States of America, March 2006

34. Publications Financial Times NY Times Washington Post LA Times BBC News Reuters CNN and or Fox News Christian Science Monitor Council on Foreign Relations My Yahoo Bloglines Newsgator Pluck Windows Live Alerts Netvibes Google

35. Links and RSS feeds Military Education Research Library Network (NDU) http://merln.ndu.edu/ International Crisis Group http://www.crisisgroup.org Center for Strategic and International Studies http://www.csis.org Foreign Policy Research Institute http://www.fpri.org/ Brookings Institution U.S. State Department http://www.state.gov/ CIA World Factbook https://www.cia.gov/cia/publications/factbook/ U.S. Institute of Peace http://www.usip.org/ Rand Corporation http://www.rand.org/ Progressive Policy Institute http://www.ppionline.org/ The Ohio State University's Program for International and Homeland Security http://homelandsecurity.osu.edu/ Latin America Network Information Center http://lanic.utexas.edu/las.html Carnegie Endowment for International Peace http://www.carnegieendowment.org/topic/ The Fund for Peace http://www.fundforpeace.org John F. Kennedy School of Government http://www.ksg.harvard.edu/ International Institute for Counterterrorism http://www.ict.org.il/ Combating Terrorism Center at West Point http://www.ctc.usma.edu/default.asp Center for Non-proliferation Studies http://cns.miis.edu/ Center for International Development at Harvard University http://www.cid.harvard.edu/ Carnegie Council http://www.cceia.org/ Hoover Institution Stanford University http://www.hoover.org/ Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation http://www-igcc.ucsd.edu/

36. Questions?

37. My contact information • dean.stodter@us.army.mil • (717) 245-4232 • Department of Distance Education, US Army War College

38. Conflict Equation + + = Violent Conflict Conflict Resources Failing state Triggers

39. Conflict Resources Factors that transform general grievance into conflict threat: • Leadership/authority • Ideology/religious doctrine • Organizational capacity • Technical skills • Military • Informational • Financing • Access to weapons • Safe havens: local and international

40. Triggers Situational vulnerabilities • Temporal: Windows of vulnerability • Elections • Passage of legislation • Ruling in a court case • Holidays • Geographic: Locations of vulnerability • Contested regions • Symbolic significance