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KwaZulu-Natal , driving trade and investment in South Africa

KwaZulu-Natal , driving trade and investment in South Africa. Economic overview February 14, 2012. Introduction . Present on macro-economic performance Selection of indicators that relate to IP Forum’s role Give sense of direction; possibly direct next move. Contents.

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KwaZulu-Natal , driving trade and investment in South Africa

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  1. KwaZulu-Natal, driving trade and investment in South Africa Economic overview February 14, 2012

  2. Introduction • Present on macro-economic performance • Selection of indicators that relate to IP Forum’s role • Give sense of direction; possibly direct next move

  3. Contents • Global economic outlook • International investment • FDI inflows and outflows • Domestic investment • Gross fixed capital formation (by sector, source, asset class) • KwaZulu-Natal investment monitor (by asset class) • Conclusions and recommendations

  4. Global economic outlook EECs Source: IMF (2011,2012); WEO

  5. Global economic outlook Source: IMF (2012); WEO

  6. Global economic outlook Source: IMF (2012); WEO

  7. Global FDI inflows (US$ bn), 2011 Source: UNCTAD (2011; 2012): FDI statistics; Global investment trends monitor

  8. FDI inflows (% of world total), 2000—2011 Source: UNCTAD (2011); FDI statistics

  9. FDI inflows (% of world total), 2000—2010 Source: UNCTAD (2011); FDI statistics

  10. FDI inflows (% of world total), 2000—2010 Source: UNCTAD (2011); FDI statistics

  11. SA FDI inflows (US$ m), 2011 SA’sFDI inflows skyrocket 269% to US$4.5bn in 2011, after plummeting 77% in 2010

  12. Leading FDI transactions (Q1:2011) Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor

  13. Leading FDI transactions (Q2:2011) Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor

  14. Leading FDI transactions (Q2:2011 – cont’d) Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor

  15. Leading FDI transactions (Q3:2011) Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor

  16. Leading FDI transactions (Q4:2011) Source: UNCTAD (2012); Global investment trends monitor

  17. FDI into South Africa, KwaZulu-Natal

  18. FDI outflows (% of world total), 2000—2010 Source: UNCTAD (2011); FDI statistics

  19. SA Quarterly Gross fixed capital formation: total (constant 2005 prices ; saa)

  20. SA Quarterly Gross fixed capital formation: sectoral (constant 2005 prices ; saa)

  21. SA Quarterly Gross fixed capital formation: source (constant 2005 prices ; saa)

  22. SA Quarterly Gross fixed capital formation: asset type (constant 2005 prices ; saa)

  23. KwaZulu-Natal Provincial Investment Monitor: Nov 2011 (saa)

  24. TRANSPORT INDEX

  25. BUILDING INDEX

  26. CIVIL INDEX

  27. MACHINERY INDEX

  28. ICT INDEX

  29. TRANSFERS INDEX

  30. TOTAL INVESTMENT INDEX

  31. Conclusion • Global economy still fragile (DCs sneeze, EECs catch a cold) • Why? Contagion effect (disorderly default, bank runs, runs spread, ECB powerless, German revolt, fin sys collapse, spreads globally, regression) ≈ 25% • 75%? (Euro survives, fiscal union, haircuts, rescue funds {ECB supports banks & IMF joins in}, BRICKS contribute, slow growth in US & Europe 10-15yrs 0-0.5% p.a. • Investments growing, though sluggish • The good? Emergence of new markets

  32. Now what? KZN within SA, SA within Africa, world? • Keep eyes on the ball • Start the party (encourage domestic investment) • Diversify for increased resilience (new products and opportunities) – eyes on Africa, don’t miss the boat; financial sector spearheading venture • Improve investment climate (maintain and/or improve efficiency and competitiveness)

  33. TIKZN Contact Details Durban: Trade and Investment House Kingsmead Office Park Kingsmead Boulevard Stalwart Simelane Road Durban, 4000 Tel: +27 (0) 31 368 9600 Gauteng: Financial Place99 George Storrar AvenueGroenkloofPretoria0181 Tel: +27 (0) 12 346 4386 www.tikzn.co.za

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