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Wolf Ketter – @ wolfketter Work done with: John Collins , Micha Kahlen, Markus Peters,

Transforming Energy Business: A Global Sustainability Challenge Energie Nederland Conferentie , Den Haag, June 16, 2014. Wolf Ketter – @ wolfketter Work done with: John Collins , Micha Kahlen, Markus Peters, Konstantina Valogianni, and many others.

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Wolf Ketter – @ wolfketter Work done with: John Collins , Micha Kahlen, Markus Peters,

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  1. Transforming Energy Business: A Global Sustainability ChallengeEnergie Nederland Conferentie, Den Haag, June 16, 2014 Wolf Ketter – @wolfketter Work done with: John Collins , Micha Kahlen, Markus Peters, Konstantina Valogianni, and many others. Erasmus Centre for Future Energy Business

  2. Global Energy Markets are Facing a New Reality Energie-wende Crimea Conflict Transition to renewables without losing reliability & competitiveness! Europe’s dependence on Russian gas and oil Financial Crisis Fukushima Shale gas / Fracking Some countries phase out nuclear power production Fall in private investment, tight financing conditions US gains more independence from foreign fossil fuels Rising Demand  Rising Prices By 2030, world economy set to double and energy demand to rise by 1/3

  3. Electricity • $371bn business(in the US, 2011, Source: OECD) • one million e-vehicles on US roads by 2020(Kassakian et al., The future of the electric grid, 2011) • $4.5tn annual digital economy spending(Gartner Group, 2013) • $10bn cost for a major US blackout(Fox-Penner, Rethinking the Grid, 2005)

  4. Energizer… • Please stand up…

  5. Energizer… Everybody please keep standing, if you... • Think renewable energy is essential for a sustainable future? • Think that Dutch energy policy has to be changed to achieve a sustainable future? • Is your business prepared for a sustainable future? • Have you or any of your friends/family used some form of renewable energy in the last year (PV, CHP, etc.)? • Changed ALL of your light blubs to low energy? • Drive an electric vehicle (EV)? • Know your energy usage for the year?

  6. USA Northeast blackout of 2003

  7. Uncharted Territory… 7

  8. Empty your cup!

  9. Who needs to drive this change?

  10. Who needs to drive this change?

  11. Who needs to drive this change?

  12. Who needs to drive this change?

  13. The Virtuous Circle

  14. Cool Science?

  15. Sustainable Energy Challenges =

  16. Sustainable Energy Challenges

  17. Sustainable Energy Challenges ??!

  18. Primary Fuels Primary Fuels Renewables Generation Renewables Generation Generation Generation Transmission Distribution Wholesale Markets InformationFeedback Trading Customer Customer Prosumer Prosumer Retail Market Storage DSM Microgrids Efficient Technologies

  19. “Charging a flat rate for electricity is like charging a flat price per pound for all items in a grocery store. What would happen if everything that came out of the cow — steak, hamburger, suet, bones, and hide — were priced at the average cost per pound?” – Alfred Kahn

  20. Competitive Benchmarking A Way of Doing Design Science for Wicked Problems

  21. www.powertac.org

  22. Power TAC Scenario

  23. Power TAC 2014World Championship5-6 May at AAMAS in Paris

  24. Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals vs. 2014 Finals New entries matter! Context matters! Strategies matter!

  25. Some Anecdotal Evidence for CB’s Efficacy

  26. Join IN! Competitive Benchmarking Key Advantages Annual Circle • Robust results • Leverage the abilities of top research groups • Annually updated research challenges (cf. Netflix) • Tournament vs. research mode

  27. Research Streams • Infrastructure • Society Energy Information Systems Energy Economics Energy Policy • Inter-firm Energy Markets • Firm Energy Finance and Trading Revenue and Demand Management Energy Network Management • Individual Prosumer Preferences Prosumer Demand Response

  28. Smart Electricity Markets

  29. Autonomous Retail Electricity Brokerage

  30. Smart Charging • Research Questions • Vision of the solution

  31. Results: Peak Demand Reduction • Peak Demand Reshaping • Valley filling • This curve is steady state for one customer with specific charging flexibility • Overall price reduction • Direct result of peak reduction • Aggregate effect on all the customers

  32. Agent-Coordinated Virtual Power Plants of Electric Vehicles I • Electric Vehicle Fleet Owner as Virtual Power Plant Aggregator • Offer mobility services to customers • Trade idle EV battery capacity on energy and reserve markets Trade off customer mobility with balancing revenues

  33. Agent-Coordinated Virtual Power Plants of Electric Vehicles II Research Type 1: Triple Bottom Line Impact of Large EV Fleets • Lower electricity prices for consumers at large (People). • Decrease in CO2 emissions (Planet). • Benefits for fleet owners (Profit). Research Type 2: Carsharing Fleets with Ancillary Services • Increased revenues for carsharing operator • More balancing capacity available on the reserve market • Balancing capacity is dynamically scalable with prices

  34. Investigating Behavior of EV usersunder Variable Pricing • Lack of studies on the behavior of EV users • No available data on EV users and their charging behavior • Variable pricing is not yet offered by providers To what extent do users adjust their charging behavior in response to variable tariffs? How can we incentivize the users to charge their EVs in a way that is efficient for the grid considering the individual differences in behavior? What effect do the incentives have on producer and consumer surplus?

  35. Future Work • Do Competitive Benchmarking! • Platform Extensions: Negotiation, Locational Marginal Pricing (LMP), E-Vehicle Models, … • Behavioral • Smart Charging and VPP 35

  36. Erasmus Energy Forum 2014 Business Day19 June, 2014 @Nhow Rotterdam Hotel • Themes: • EU Policy and Markets • Energy Micro Grids & • New Business Models • Financing Sustainable Energy • Presentations • Panel Discussions • Networking • Business Award • Exclusive Diner Science Day20 June, 2014 @Erasmus University Rotterdam • Paper and Poster Presentations • Networking • Science Award

  37. A 20th century ecosystem Extraction Transport Storage Refinery Customer Distribution

  38. A 21th century ecosystem Extraction Transport Storage Refinery Customer/ Prosumer Distribution

  39. “If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses.” - Henry Ford

  40. 5th Avenue, New York April, 1900

  41. 5th Avenue, New York March, 1913

  42. Get in Touch! Wolf Ketter wketter@rsm.nl www.rsm.nl/energy www.powertac.org @wolfketter

  43. Backup

  44. Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals

  45. Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals New entries matter!

  46. Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals New entries matter! Strategies matter!

  47. Results: 2012 Pilot vs. 2013 Finals New entries matter! Context matters! Strategies matter!

  48. Sunny Portal http://www.sma.de/de/news-infos/pv-leistung-in-deutschland.html

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