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Autumn Clerk’s Conference

Autumn Clerk’s Conference. Funding and finance update 30 September 2014 Julian Gravatt, Assistant Chief Executive, AoC Julian_Gravatt@aoc.co.uk @ JulianGravatt http://www.aoc.co.uk/term/funding-finance. Twenty years of funding, what we’ve learnt.

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Autumn Clerk’s Conference

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  1. Autumn Clerk’s Conference • Funding and finance update • 30 September 2014 • Julian Gravatt, Assistant Chief Executive, AoC • Julian_Gravatt@aoc.co.uk • @JulianGravatt • http://www.aoc.co.uk/term/funding-finance

  2. Twenty years of funding, what we’ve learnt Lots of activity - agencies, initiatives, acronyms etc Periodic changes to the funding formula – 2003, 2008, 2013 Incessant fiddling with qualifications, prices and programmes Funding used to nudge and control Budgets that change every year despite multi year spending reviews Desire to squeeze every ounce of value out of every pound spent

  3. College accounts 2013-14

  4. The bigger spending picture Government plans Deficit reduction Spending cuts 2009-18 Spending review in 2015 Unprotected departments 9.1% of GDP (2013-14) 7.8% of GDP (2015-16) 5.4% of GDP (2018-19) Spending cuts c40% to come Loans may be a safe haven

  5. The DFE budget after 2015 DFE’s cash crunch: too many academies, sixth forms, pupils & promises 2015 to 2020: 10% growth in 11-16 pupils, 8% fall in 16-18s population Education is staff-intensive (80% of school income) Pensions + NI on-costs = 5% increase in cost of employing a teacher

  6. EFA 16-18 funding 2015-16 Decisions on 16-18 later than on schools EFA needs to fund costs of study programmes (more FT students) New A-levels, new Tech Levels, New traineeships If cuts are necessary, EFA will cut rates, weightings or eligibility EFA will confirm allocations by March 2015 2016-17 Lagged funding introduced in 2010. Are there alternatives? Do councils get control of the 16-18 budget? Formula Protection Grant ends; Maths/English condition starts Nothing will be clear until the post-election 2015 spending review

  7. SFA Funding from 2016 onwards BIS budget Some big cuts likely in BIS spending HEFCE + Student Grants + Science £8 bil out of £13 bil 19+ FE/Skills budget might be quicker to cut LEPs/Councils will continue to push for DWP & BIS budgets Expansion of FE loans could take place in 2016 Apprenticeships Cross-party support for apprenticeships (advanced & higher apps) Employer routed funding for apprenticeships by 2017 ? Government spends £1.5 bil. Will employers pay for training? Unemployment Areas of high unemployment despite the economic recovery All three parties have talked about under 25 benefit cuts (earn or learn)

  8. Longer-term funding trends Politics Current shift towards devolution The 2015 vote and Coalition negotiations determine next steps Events determine post-16 policy as much as ideology Political views of ministers determine planning/market mix Public spending Post-election 2015 spending review Three things working against 16+ education - Demography (more children now, more older people) - Economics (deficit reduction continues to be a priority) • Politics (UK, devolution, EU issues) No appetite to rebuild the size of government Spending likely to dip around 2018

  9. Financial health • College finances • Deficits in 2012-13 (48% operating deficits, 10% cash based deficit • Ofsted-related spending + capital projects = short-term deterioration • Staff costs 60-65% of income • Public spending cuts -> 4% fall in EFA+SFA in 2014 • Rising costs and falling income • How Colleges need to respond • Understand their position, their environment and their risks • Relationships with SFA, EFA, Council, MP and their bank • Actively manage their finances • Think about opportunities and what comes next

  10. On a more positive note... Opportunities Colleges have friends and allies Education and skills matter both to the recovery & to society Government will still be spending £70+ billion on education in 2020 Income generation opportunities exist Quality counts Productivity improvements from IT only partly realised in education There are some relatively simple things that can still be done

  11. Known events Autumn Scotland referendum, 18 September 2014 Party conferences, 21 September to 8 October 2014 AoC annual conference, 18 - 20 November 2014 Autumn statement, 4 December 2014 Spring Budget, mid March 2015 Easter, 7 April 2015 General election, 7 May 2015

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