Policy Picture Autumn 2014 EM Skills Conference

1. Policy Picture Autumn 2014 EM Skills Conference

2. Current policy picture • Build up of election momentum through to May 2015 • The economy still the story but differing perceptions • For education: new Government faces, same path but lighter tread; Opposition building case around early years, qualified profession and vocational reform • Strengthening the skills pipeline an essential feature in both Parties’ economic plans; voc ‘arms’ race emerging • Mutual support too for English and maths, school standards, apprenticeships, high-level progression and local determinism • Less agreement around 14-19 curriculum, school brands, college models and HE funding • General sense is more of the same, no ‘97 or 2010 gear shift • Four big questions (when it comes to English and maths) • How are we doing? • What are the current concerns? • What’s happening on the policy front? • How’s the future looking?

3. 1. How are we doing? Glass ½ full or ½ empty? National measures • Primary school performance levels up (Source:KS2 tests) • 79% of pupils achieved a level 4 or above in reading, writing and maths • 24% achieved a level 5 • More pupils gained C or above in maths GCSE this summer • More students took A level maths and further maths this summer • More adults (19+) achieved English and maths quals in 2012/13 (Sept First Stat Release) International measures • 11th in 2011 PIRLS and 9th in primary maths and 10th in sec maths in 2011 TIMMS • 26th out of 34 OECD countries in maths in the 2012 PISA tests • Poor levels of literacy and numeracy performance, especially among the incoming workforce reported in OECD’s 2013 Survey of adult skills

4. 1. How are we doing? Glass ½ full or ½ empty?

5. 2. What are the current concerns? • Managing a context of anxiety • “England’s young adults trail the world in literacy and numeracy” (BBC Oct 2013) • “Why are the British bad at maths?” (Prospect Magazine May 2014) • “Britain facing a literary crisis which will leave 1.5m 11yr olds unable to read properly by 2025” (Independent Sept 2014) • Improving the quality of teaching and learning • Partly an issue of classroom practice (eg Ofsted Sept 2014 reports on 16-19 PoS and on what works in FE) • Partly an issue of prof training and support (eg BIS FE Workforce Strategy July 2014, ETF Workforce Survey Sept 2014) • GCSE v FS • Evolving political positions (Hancock to Boles) • Other informed comment (BIS Committee, National Numeracy, CBI, AELP) • Continuing research and review (Ofqual, NIACE) • Impact of qualification reforms • More demanding national curriculum • Significant changes to GCSEs, AS/A levels and VQs • Impact of accountability reforms • Changes to performance tables and accountable measures • Development of new professional standards for teachers and lecturers • Emergence of data sets and the informed consumer

6. 3. What’s happening on the policy front? Lots of policy noise: • Government announce plans to boost online learning in FE (June) • Government prioritise teaching of Eng/maths in FE Workforce Strategy (July) • Labour announce plans to devolve parts of the skills budget (July) • Government issue first Growth Deals (July) • Government issue consultation response on Core Maths (July) • CBI/Pearson publish results of latest employer survey (July) • Ofqual launch consultation on S/L in GCSE English (July) • Ofsted prioritise L2 Eng/maths outcomes in 2014 inspection arrangements (July) • Prince’s Trust publish Skills Trust report (August) • Government publish consultation on adult ed success measures (August) • Government update guidance on 16-19 PoS (August) • Demos publish report on ESOL (August) • BIS Committee publish report into Adult Literacy and Numeracy (Sept) • Launch of Read. Get on campaign (Sept) • Launch of Manifesto for a Numerate UK (Sept) • Ofqual confirm grading scale for first GCSEs (Sept) • Ofsted publish report on T/L/A in FE (Sept) • Completion of NIACE review into GCSE role (Sept) • SFA confirm funding arrangements for ESOL quals for 2014-15 (Oct) • Minister confirms continuation of bursary scheme for FE Eng/maths teachers (Oct)

7. 4. How’s the future looking? Three shaping features • Funding context • System change • Election manoeuvres

8. 4. Funding and the Economy • Current economic plans • Cons: cut the deficit, cut taxes, create more jobs, cap welfare, raise skill levels • Labour: balanced economy, business stability, skilled workforce, reformed markets, outward-looking approach • Lib-Dems: cut the deficit, green economy, cradle-college funding, raise personal tax allowance, borrow less/cut less (than the others) • Deficit reduction a key issue in the next election. Current estimates: • £43bn ‘savings needed by 2018/19, largely from unprotected Depts (OBR) • £37.6 bn ‘savings between 2015 and 2018 (IFS) • Some difficult telephone numbers • Balance the books by 2018 (Cons, Lib-Dems) balance the books in the next Parliament (Labour) • £25bn of savings needed in the first 2 yrs of next Parliament (Cons,) ‘no spending without saying where the money is coming from’ (Labour) • £300m pa for young people funded from savings from welfare savings (Cons,) Compulsory Jobs Guarantee for young people funded from tax on bankers’ bonuses (Labour) • 3m more apprenticeships (Cons,) match the number going to uni with the number going on to apprenticeships (Labour.) Funding not clear yet • Raise tax threshold for those on min wage (Cons,) raise the min wage from £1.50 an hr to £8 an hr by 2020 (Labour)

9. 4. System change. FE • Hugely diverse sector, poorly understood but vital provider of skills training from disaffected 14+ yr olds to high-level prof updating • A sector covering 390+ colleges teaching 2m adults, 850,000 16-18 yr olds + 496 training providers with brand extended into SFC, UTC • Government policy aimed at freeing up colleges and college system to enable better responsiveness to market/learner needs under the 2Rs banner, pushing for centre of excellence model • Number of change mechanisms being used including: funding (24+loans,) accountability (progression, destination, earnings) and structural (elite tier, centres of excellence, social enterprises) • Labour keen to re-focus sector around essential skills training with fully qualified staff and accredited provider status (ITEs) delivering employer derived training • Latest political positions: • Conservatives: updated intervention process (May,) Response on FELTAG (June,) bids to set up National Colleges (June,) consultation on extending loan system and bringing HNs under SFA (June,) Workforce Strategy (July,) consultation on new success measures (Aug,) bids to set up Voc Ed Research Centre (Sept) • Labour: support for ITEs, Tech Bacc and Tech degrees, reformed apprenticeship system (Conf speeches Sept)

10. 4. Election timeline? • Local Council and European elections (May 2014) • Big ticket Manifesto policy submissions (June 2014) • Cabinet re-shuffle (July 2014) • Summer offensive (August 2014) • Party Conference season (Sept-Oct 2014) • Scottish referendum (Sept 2014) • Clacton by-election (Oct 2014) • Rochester by-election (Nov 2014) • Chancellor’s Autumn Statement (Dec 2014) • Parliament returns (Jan 2015) • Chancellor’s Final Budget (March 2015) • Parliament dissolved (March 2015) • Manifestos launched and Leaders’ TV Debates (April 2015) • Polling Day (May 7 2015) (Note: important staging posts for education system include: Ofsted’s Annual Report, school performance tables, UCAS’s 2014 University entry Summary, the Government’s Progress Report on its Industrial (skills) Strategy)

11. 5. Who’ll win? • Voting intentions and leadership ratings have remained static for some time • Current voting intentions: Labour 38%, Cons 35%, Lib-Dems 7%, UKIP 12% (Source: YouGov) • “We’re into dead heat territory” YouGov • Economy the key factor but poverty, inequality, immigration rated as top current concerns; education lower order issue • Essentially a ‘trust’ election: who do you trust most with the economy, NHS, cost of living, immigration, national security, welfare reforms? • Key dynamics: • Party leader perceptions • Tone change post re-shuffle • Nature of Coalition uncoupling • Incumbency bonus + final crunch factor • Constituency boundary changes • Shared prosperity v toff’s prosperity • The UKIP factor • Impact of TV debates • Target groups (squeezed middle, squashed bottom, hard working families) • ‘Duffy’ moments • But significantly the first general election to be fought in the full glare of social media

12. The world as the politicians are planning it

13. Key things to look out for this year • Further pointing work on the new qual system. For schools: GCSE grading, regulation; AS/A accreditation; VQ listings. For FE: App standards; UKCES and NOS; new Ofqual rules; vMOOCs and online learning; open database • Big heave on English and maths. For schools: Shanghai method; Hubs; Core Maths; Specialist Schools. For FE: new staff requirements; bursaries; centres of excellence; performance measures; funding incentives • Final modelling of new accountability system. For schools: secondary readiness; Progress 8; Level 2; destination data. For FE: destination; progression; earnings changes • Sharper application of funding rules. For schools: MFG; programme sizes; rates @18. For FE: link with outcomes; monthly caps, extended funding rules; reliance on employer/learner contributions • Political arm wrestling over system reform. For schools: RSCs; Blunkett outcomes; parent-power; chains and partnerships. For FE: ITE v GFE; elite v social enterprise; LEP/FE axis • Tough talk on performance. For schools: PISA effect; qual profession; Royal College; inspection model. For FE: R and R; FE Commissioner; CAVTL and ETF developments; Teach Further; new teacher standards • Continuing concerns about underachievement. For schools: KS1/KS3 testing; Ed Committee; EEF; Pupil Premium; careers. For FE: Social Mobility Commission; 2nd chance opportunities; employability; progression and earnings • Mounting excitement