DOE Global Modeling Strategic Goals

1. DOE Global Modeling Strategic Goals Anjuli Bamzai Program Manager Climate Change Prediction Program DOE/OBER/Climate Change Res Div email: anjuli.bamzai@science.doe.gov ESMF Interagency MtgNASA GSFC Nov 30 2004

2. DOE Office Science/OBER + “laboratories” + “universities” + “private industry” Life Sciences Medical Sciences Climate Change Research Environ. Remediation Science at the Interface Physical Sciences Biological Sciences ARM CCPP Computational Sciences

3. Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program -- Collecting and analyzing data -- Modeling physical processes -- Evaluating GCM physics -- Developing parameterizations SCM 3D CRM Climate Change Prediction Program Global Modeling in Climate Change Research Division (CCRD) Data GCM Climate change simulations

4. ARM Modeling Goals • Understand and parameterize at scales from local atmospheric column to the global climate model (3D-cloud radiation problem) • Combine observations, physical models, and climate model parameterizations (Effect of aerosols on cloud properties) • Evaluate CRM and SCM of cloud physics and parameterizations; Improve forcing data for SCM and CRM testing • Devise new approaches to test and improve climate model physical parameterizations e.g. (i) Operationally compute broad-band heating rates in the atmospheric columns at the ARM sites; (ii) Run initial condition test bed for global climate models (CAPT a joint CCPP-ARM project)

5. Develop models based on definitive theoretical foundations and improved computational methods that will run efficiently on current/next generation of high-performance scientific supercomputers Develop better representations of key climate processes (land surface processes, convective transport, etc) on appropriate scales used in climate models, global and regional, used to simulate decadal-to-centennial climate change. Inclusion of coupled biogeochemisty, atmospheric chemistry. Develop diagnostic methods and tools to evaluate the ability of GCM-based climate models to accurately describe and predict global climate system behavior. CCPP Modeling Goals

6. CCPP Modeling Goals • Test and apply climate models that stay at leading edge of scientific knowledge and computational technology with an end to utilize for climate change projections under various scenarios, e.g. IPCC runs • Increase accuracy/ throughput of computer model-based projections of future climate system response to increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases by incorporating best practices in computing technology

7. CCPP Modeling Projects • NCAR Cooperative Agreement – Primarily supports CCSM activities in the Climate Change and Assessment Working Group • Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) at LLNL • Climate, Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling Program (COSIM) at LANL • Lab – NCAR SciDAC Project • High-end Computational Support at LANL, LBNL (NERSC), and ORNL-partnerships with OASCR

8. Activities map onto CCSP chapters 4,5, 10, 12,13, 15 Climate Variability and Change, Water Cycle, Modeling Strategy obs, data mgt, Intl Cooperation • S&A 1.1: Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences NOAA lead, NASA, NSF, DOE supporting • S&A 3.1 Climate Models: Sensitivities, Feedbacks, and Uncertainties. DOE lead agency, NASA, NOAA, NSF supporting 2-year deliverable • S&A 3.3 Climate extremes including documentation of current extremes. Prospects for improving projections NOAA lead, NASA, DOE, USGS supporting

9. ESMF and DOE CCSM jointly sponsored NSF-DOE activity. CCSM IPCC projections, data archival and accessibility major undertaking for DOE CCPP. • Phil Jones/LANL as co-PI on ESMF effort; involved regridding of sea-ice component of the model, CSIM. • However ESMF evaluation plan to initially incorporate ESMF protocol in stand-alone CAM. In short term no major effect on DOE. • In long-term we may be limited by software engineer support for CCSM, given competing demands for ESMF and CCSM science objectives, e.g. coupled biogeochemistry, coupled chemistry. Office of Advanced Scientific Computing, Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing initiative (OASCR SciDAC) • DOE OASCR SciDAC initiative in FY 01. CCSM consortium award to NCAR, ANL, LANL, LBL, LLNL, ORNL. Several software tools developed e.g. CCA, MCT, ESG. These tools have been crucial for IPCC runs. • Climate is just one of many applications of SciDAC initiative. Other applications include combustion, fusion, nuclear theory, molecular dynamics. • Anticipate DOE OASCR SciDAC competition in FY 06. Emerging new science issues for coupled climate modeling, and associated computing challenges will likely figure.