Presentation Transcript

1. First Generation Vulnerability Assessments: What can/should they do? 25 July 2012

   Prof. Burkhard von Rabenau, Ph.D. GIZ Environmentally and Climate-Friendly Urban Development in Da Nang (ECUD)
2. Motivation Da Nang Vulnerability Assessments PEMSEA (2004) focused on Disaster Risks DaCRISS, JICA (2007-2010) focused on Urban Strategy ACCCRN, Rockefeller (2008-2010) CC Adaptation City/CCCO, Da Nang PC (2011) CC Adaptation Based on existing experience How should small communities prepare CC assessment? How can they do so w/o assistance? What parts of Da Nang methodology should be adopted, what discarded? What should the objectives be of a 1st Generation Assessment? For action planning, what should be done now, what should be postponed for later?
3. Key Messages First Generation Assessments Principal purpose is Mobilization and Start-up. There are many iterations to come. Major concrete decisions come only after mainstreaming Climate change adaptation is one of many objectives, must be balanced against others of equal importance Replication with lesser resources is possible Often CC Assessments do both too much and too little Limit objectives to awareness, exploration, work program Use existing regional CC rather than own forecasts Be incomplete, limit analysis to priority hazards Avoid detail not later used Cooperate with others Focus on plausibility and story line, quantify later Use indicators rather than abstract concepts Use disaster risk and DRR as starting point, is already familiar
4. Climate Change and Its Impacts Scenario Analysis (exists) Use MoNRE Regional scenarios: Sea level rise, change in temperature and rainfall Variations from regional average too small to matter Identify secondary/tertiary hazards Type of hazards Flooding, inundation: area, depth, frequency, location Saline intrusion: area, impact Storms, tai Source of Information Use data from DRR action plans/Flood Committee Identify Historical Disasters Mostly exists for major disasters Use ‘Climate Plus Approach’ – current hazards + things will get worse Rely on current situation as starting point Limited exposure forecasts, vulnerability horizon non-specific Uses capacity experience with recent disasters
5. Exposure Analysis Cause/Effect Exposure determines vulnerability and risk Reverse also holds: risk changes how people behave Time Horizon Identical to climate change scenario In Climate Plus Approach say city & income grow or say double in 20-40 years In Full Approach specify time, say t = 0, 20, 40 years Key elements Base the elements on indicators used in vulnerability analysis and the need of the risk analysis Scale: Population, employment Unit Values: Income, assets (relate value land, life GDP pc) Land Use: Direction of growth relative to hazards, density Policies: Conservation policies, building regulations
6. Vulnerability Assessment Cause Effect Depend on two scenarios: Hazards and Exposure Vulnerabilities can impact policies and hence exposure Types Capital Cost ($): Human, Man-made, Natural resources (Loss of housing, infrastructure, forests, land, quality of land etc) Current Operating Losses ($/unit time): Loss of wages, output, productivity, etc) Vulnerability Descriptors Scoring: Abstract, difficult to give meaning, difficult to aggregate Verbal explanation: Intuitive, concrete, Indicators: Can be quantified; can be in intensive form Loss of life (in VND) due to storms per 100,000 population Income loss from flooding as % of monthly GDP Hectares of land lost (in has or VND) due to erosion
7. Risk Assessment: Qualitative
8. Risk Analysis: Quantitative Illustration Loss of Life From exposure analysis: Population 1,000,000; income pc pa $1,000 From vulnerability analysis annual loss of life per 100,000 population: 0.5 Value of life: 100 times annual income (based on people’s own risk behavior and revealed preferences) Current annual risk: $1,000x100x 0.5 x 1,000,000/100,000 = $500,000 Future annual risk (40 years hence): Population 2m, income pc pa $3,000, future loss per 100,000 is 0.6 Annual Expected Loss: $3,000 x 100 x 0.6 x 2,000,000/100,000 = $ 3,600,000 Present Value, Discount Rate 5%; Horizon 40 years; PWF Loss of Land (due to salinity, erosion, sea level rise) Exposure analysis: Avg value of eroding land $10,000/ha; $30,000/ha in 40 yrs Vulnerability analysis annual loss of land: 6 hectares now, 10 has in 40 years Current annual risk: $10,000 x 6 = $60,000 Future annual risk (40 years hence): $30,000 x 10 = $300,000 Present Value, Discount Rate 5%; Horizon 40 years; PWF
9. Adaptive Capacity Da Nang Typology Differentiated by type of hazard and type of capacity. Seems too detailed and not sufficiently intuitive (i) Regulations, policies; (ii) Capacity Building (iii) Promotion, education; (iv) Scientific research; (v) Construction, infrastructure; (vi) Tree planting Modifications Add capacities: Governance Planning and coordination capacity Finance Willingness to act Many capacities cross hazard, no need to evaluate by hazard
10. Strategic Options For each hazard review Instruments for protection, preparedness, coping, recovery Policies, regulations to modify behavior Direct interventions through infrastructure, risk management Adaptive capacity (knowledge systems, planning, governance, management, resources) Example Drought Supply Side Instruments Reservoir construction, evaporation control, water storage systems Water management Demand Side Instruments Price, shadow pricing for resource value Regulation of indirect demand: Appliances and Fixtures, landscaping Building codes Incentives, penalties, fees, surcharges Curtailment, rationing
11. Short-Term Actions Reasons for Postponement of Immediate Action Impact of Discounting: Benefits are far in the future, cost is now Uncertainty declines Productivity gains from technical change available to postponement Idle capacity cost offsets economies of scale Reasons for Immediate Action Long gestation period No regrets Irreversibility, foreclosure of opportunities Gains from economies of scale exceed idle capacity cost Focus on building adaptive capacity Knowledge systems Data and indicator development, monitoring and evaluation, data management Building scientific capacity Preparation of models, what if questions Planning, management and governance systems Resources and Finance
12. Thank You