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Illustrative Life Table: Basic Functions And Net Single Premiums Based On The Fifth Percentiles

Outline. IntroductionThe fifth percentile of the number of survivorsThe fifth percentile of the present-value random variablesThe fifth percentile of the present-value for more than 1 insuredConclusionsReferences. Introduction-symbols for number of survivors. newbornsL( ) is the coh

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Illustrative Life Table: Basic Functions And Net Single Premiums Based On The Fifth Percentiles

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    1. Illustrative Life Table: Basic Functions And Net Single Premiums Based On The Fifth Percentiles Li-Fei Huang lhuang@mail.mcu.edu.tw Department of Applied Statistics and Information Science Ming Chuan University, Taiwan

    2. Outline Introduction The fifth percentile of the number of survivors The fifth percentile of the present-value random variables The fifth percentile of the present-value for more than 1 insured Conclusions References

    3. Introduction-symbols for number of survivors newborns L( ) is the cohort’s number of survivors to age which follows a binomial distribution is the probability that a newborn can survive to age If only extremely rare newborns survive to age , the insurance companies have to pay more insurance earlier and lose lots of money. The fifth percentile of the number of survivors is denoted by

    4. Introduction-symbols for life annuity is the expected present-value of a whole life annuity-due of 1 payable at the beginning of each year while survives. Let All can be derived recursively by the equation: The single premium that the insurance companies should charge to prevent losing lots of money will be computed.

    5. Introduction-symbols for life insurance is the expected present-value of a whole life insurance of 1 payable at the end of year of death issued to Let All can be derived recursively by the equation: The single premium that the insurance companies should charge to prevent losing lots of money will be computed.

    6. The illustrative life table The illustrative life table in the appendix of the book “Actuarial Mathematics” was based on the Makeham law for ages 13-110, and the adjustment The interest rate is 6%.

    7. The exact fifth percentile of the number of survivors The exact fifth percentile of the number of survivors satisfies the following equation: Each term of the equation is the product of some integers and some probabilities, and the product may become too large or too small to calculate if the multiplication is not in proper order. To simplify the SAS program of finding the exact fifth percentile, the number of newborns is set to be 3,500 instead of 100,000.

    8. The approximated fifth percentile of the number of survivors The approximated fifth percentile of the number of survivors is calculated by The approximated fifth percentiles are pretty close to the exact fifth percentiles in tables. For larger number of newborns, the approximated fifth percentile should also work well.

    9. The fifth percentile of number of survivors at age 0 to age 10

    10. The fifth percentile of number of survivors at age 76 to age 85

    11. The fifth percentile of number of survivors at age 101 to age 110

    12. Life annuity: the fifth percentile Those approximated in tables provide the new survival function. Let , then all can be found recursively by Eq. (1) using the new survival function.

    13. Life insurance: the fifth percentile Those approximated in tables provide the new survival function. Let , then all can be found recursively by Eq. (2) using the new survival function.

    14. notice because the insurance companies have to pay more insurance if many insured don’t survive. because the insurance companies can pay fewer annuities if many insured don’t survive.

    15. The fifth percentile of the present-value random variables at age 0 to age 10

    16. The fifth percentile of the present-value random variables at age 46 to age 55

    17. The fifth percentile of the present-value random variables at age 94 to age 103

    18. THE FIFTH PERCENTILE OF THE PRESENT-VALUE FOR MORE THAN 1 INSURED There are 100 . Each purchases a whole life insurance of 1 payable at the end of year of death. The interest rate is 6%. Based on the usual normal approximation, the fifth percentile of the present-value is such that

    19. Another choice of the fifth percentile of the present-value Another choice of the fifth percentile of the present-value for more than 1 insured is suggested to be in this paper.

    20. The fifth percentile of the present-value for 100 insured at age 20 or age 40

    21. CONCLUSION 1 T he insurance companies can preserve more money for - approximated insured who may not survive to prevent losing lots of money.

    22. CONCLUSION 2 T he insurance companies can sell both insurances and annuities to balance the income and the payment.

    23. CONCLUSION 3 T he insurance companies can charge for each insured of a large group of customers. The new single premium is just a little bit higher than the actuarial present-value so it should be more acceptable than the usual normal approximated fifth percentile.

    24. REFERENCES 1 Bowers, N.L., Gerber, H.U., Hickman, J.C., Jones, D.A. and Nesbitt, C.J. (1986). Actuarial Mathematics. SOA. Actuarial models of life insurance with stochastic interest rate. Wei, Xiang and Hu, Ping. Proceedings of SPIE - The International Society for Optical Engineering, v 7490, 2009, PIAGENG 2009 - Intelligent Information, Control, and Communication Technology for Agricultural Engineering

    25. REFERENCES 2 Two approximations of the present value distribution of a disability annuity. Jaap Spreeuw. Journal of Computational and Applied Mathematics Volume 186, Issue 1, 1 February 2006, Pages 217-231 Modeling old-age mortality risk for the populations of Australia and New Zealand: An extreme value approach. Li, J.S.H. ,Ng, A.C.Y. and Chan, W.S. Mathematics and Computers in Simulation, v 81, n 7, p 1325-1333, March 2011

    26. The end Thank you for your watching!

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