Sun-Solar System Connection

Sun-Solar System Connection Strategic Roadmap Committee #10 Interim Status Report April 21, 2005

Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap: Knowledge for Exploration • Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the • Sun and its effects on • Earth, • the solar system, • the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and • demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems

External and Internal Factors • Our technological society needs space weather knowledge to function efficiently • Human beings require space weather predictions to work safely and productively in space • We are poised to provide knowledge and predictive understanding of the system

Nature of the Challenge • A quantitative, predictive understanding of a complex “system of systems” • Microphysical processes regulate global & interplanetary structures • Multi-constituent plasmasand complex photochemistry • Non-linear dynamic responses • Integration and synthesis of multi-point observations • Data assimilative models & theory • Interdisciplinary communities and tools http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/NewZoom2.mov

We Have Already Begun! Space Storms at Earth Disturbed Mars-Space & Atmospheric Loss Dangerous Radiation Space Storms at the Outer Planets Disturbed Upper Atmosphere Solar System Blast Wave • Current Sun-Earth missions provide a prototype “Great Observatory”, providing a first look at the system level view and informing the roadmap plan • Theory, modeling, and observational tools now exist or can be developed to yield both transformational knowledge of the Sun-Earth system and provide needed tools and space weather knowledge for human exploration and societal needs

Approach to Identify Priority Science Targets • Predictive capability for safe and productive exploration requires full understanding of a complex system of disparate systems • Priority goals enable significant progress in three essential areas: Understanding, Exploration, and Discovery • For example, discovery of near-Sun processes by Solar Probe provides transformational knowledge of the source of space weather enabling explorers to work safely and productively beyond Earth's magnetic shield Understand Science that transforms knowledge Priority Sun-Solar System Connection Science Science enabled by Exploration Science enabling Exploration Discover Explore Science that is Vital, Compelling & Urgent

Sun-Solar System Connection Objectives Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields Safeguard Our Outward Journey Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space

Open the Frontier to Space Weather Prediction 1) Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geospace storms 2) Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport particles throughout the solar system 3) Understand how nonlinear interactions transfer energy and momentum within planetary upper atmospheres. 4) Determine how solar, stellar, and planetary magnetic dynamos are created and why they vary.

Understand the Nature of our Home in Space 1) Understand the causes and subsequent evolution of activity that affects Earth’s space climate and environment 2) Understand changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere to enable specification, prediction, and mitigation of their effects 3) Understand the Sun's role as an energy source to the Earth’s atmosphere, particularly the role of solar variability in driving climate change 4) Apply our understanding of space plasma physics to the role of stellar activity and magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution and habitability

Safeguard our Outward Journey 1) Characterize the variability and extremes of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robotic explorers 2) Develop the capability to predict the origin of solar activity and disturbances associated with potentially hazardous space weather. 3) Develop the capability to predict the acceleration and propagation of energetic particles in order to enable safe travel for human and robotic explorers 4) Understand how space weather affects planetary environments to minimize risk in exploration activities.

Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Goal Structure Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems Phase 1: 2005-2015 Phase 2: 2015-2025 Phase 3: 2025-beyond Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction • Measure magnetic reconnection at the Sun and Earth • Determine the dominant processes of particle acceleration • Set the critical scales over which cross- scale coupling occurs • Model the magnetic processes that drive space weather • Quantify particle acceleration for the key regions of exploration • Predict solar magnetic activity and energy release • Predict high energy particle flux throughout the solar system. • Understand the coupling of disparate astrophysical systems • Understand how solar disturbances propagate to Earth • Determine quantitative drivers of the geospace environment • Identify the impacts of solar variability on Earth’s atmosphere • Describe how space plasmas and planetary atmospheres interact • Identify precursors of important solar disturbances and predict the Earth’s response • Integrate solar variability effects into Earth climate models • Determine the habitability of solar system bodies Understand the Nature of our Home in Space • Continuously forecast conditions throughout the heliosphere • Predict climate change* • Determine how the habitability evolves in time • Image activity on other stars • Characterize the near-Sun source region of the space environment • Reliably forecast space weather for the Earth-Moon system; make first space weather nowcasts at Mars • Determine Mars atmospheric variability relevant to aerocapture, entry, descent, landing, surface navigation and communications • Provide situational awareness of the space environment throughout the inner Solar System • Reliably predict atmospheric and radiation environment at Mars to ensure safe surface operations • Analyze the first direct samples of the interstellar medium • Determine extremes of the vari-able radiation and space environ-ments at Earth, Moon, & Mars • Nowcast solar and space weather and forecast “All-Clear” periods for space explorers near Earth Safeguard our Outward Journey • Develop technologies, observations, and knowledge systems that support operational systems

Detailed Requirements Flow Down Illustration of requirements flow-down • U.S. mandate for Sun-Solar System Connection science and exploration determined research focus areas • Vision for Space Exploration led to scheduling of targeted outcomes • Each targeted outcome traced to required understanding and to focused, prioritized enabling capabilities and measurements • Missions, groups of missions, research, theory, and modeling program elements, are derived from capabilities and measurement requirements • Consolidation of priority outcomes show that many program elements contribute to multiple achievements and focus areas • Missions singly and together contribute unique and vital data to understand the system of systems • Mission studies at GSFC and JPL, including assessment of feasibility and maturity, categorized into cost classes: • Explorer (< $250M), strategic ($250M-$500M), large strategic ($500M-$1B), flagship (>$1B) Requirement -flowdowns developed for each anticipated outcome. Prioritization of targeted outcomes informs final prioritization of program elements and mission concepts. Access current set of these flow diagrams at http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/flowdiagrams.html

Program Implementation • The plan is designed to be robust - sufficiently flexible to facilitate adjustments as new knowledge is acquired, new discoveries are made, and transformational technologies are developed • A spiral development (“learn as you go”) approach is used providing key decision points between spirals • The spirals can be related to similar program elements of the Exploration Initiatives, with Spiral (n-1) for SSSC informing spiral (n) for human exploration. Thus, for example, accomplishments of SSSC Spiral 2 will inform human exploration Spiral 3 • First spiral is already underway, utilizing current program assets and near-term launches • Subsequent spirals are focused on developing the new knowledge base, new understanding, and the new predictive capability that will enable safe and productive exploration activities

From Goals to Implementation Spiral Phase 1 Sun-Earth-Moon System Characterization of System Spiral Phase 2 Sun - Terrestrial Planets Modeling of System Elements Spiral Phase 3 Sun-Solar System System Forecasting Joint Sun-Earth Science Forecast Hazards • Predict solar, heliospheric & stellar activity • Physical models of important space weather processes • Forecast space weather for society & explorers Model Systems Characterize Environments • Sample interstellar medium • Measure near-Sun space environment • Drivers of climate and habitability • Inner heliosphere radiation & space weather forecasts • Magnetic reconnection • Impacts of solar variability on Earth & Mars • Atmospheric response to external drivers Reliable Predictions for all Uses of Space • Particle acceleration processes • Drivers of cis-lunar space weather Local Space Weather Forecasts for Operations Space Weather Impacts on System Design Informs Lunar Exploration Informs Mars Exploration Mars Space Weather Operations Crew Exploration Vehicle Robotic Lunar Exploration Human/Robotic Lunar Surface Exploration Extended Human Operations on Lunar Surface Human Exploration in the Vicinity of Mars Human Exploration of Mars Exploration Systems Timeline 2005 2015 2025 2035

Mission Planning Spiral Phase 1 Sun-Earth-Moon System Characterization of System Spiral Phase 2 Sun - Terrestrial Planets Modeling of System Elements Spiral Phase 3 Sun-Solar System System Forecasting Future Mission Candidates Solar Processes: MTRAP, RAM, Solar Orbiter, SPI Heliospheric Structure & Disturbances: Doppler, HIGO, Telemachus Geospace System Impacts: AMS, GEC, GEMINI, ITMW, MagCon, T-ITMC Climate Impacts: JANUS, SECEP Mars Atmosphere: Mars Aeronomy, Mars Dynamics Space Weather Stations: Heliostorm, L1 Diamond, SHIELDS : Solar System Space Weather: DBC, SEPP, SIRA, SWBuoys Mars Space Weather: Mars-GOES Planetary Orbiters: JPO, NO, VAP Interstellar Medium: Interstellar Probe Habitability: Stellar Imager Solar: SDO,Solar-B CMEs & Heliosphere: STEREO, Sentinels Radiation:: RBSP, Sentinels Geospace Impacts: THEMIS, MMS, RBSP,ITSP Climate Impacts:: SDO,AIM Moon, Mars Awareness:: LRO, MSL, ITSP Interstellar Boundary:IBEX Inner Boundary:: Solar Probe Forecast Hazards Model Systems Already In Develop-ment or Formulation Explorer Partnership Recommended Characterize Environments 2005 2015 2025 2035 Final mission recommendations for Phases 2 and 3 to be determined during the May 10-13 Roadmap Meetings. This assignment of missions by phase is driven primarily by resource availability. Benefits of progressive space weather capability may be realized earlier through acceleration of phased mission queue.

Sun-Solar System Connection Summary Already In Develop-ment or Formulation Explorer Partnership Recommended Science Questions Goals Implementation Investigations Achievements Impacts Phase 1: • Magnetic reconnection • Particle acceleration processes • Drivers of cis-lunar space weather • Impacts of solar variability on Earth and Mars • Phase 1 missions: • Solar: SDO, Solar-B • CMEs & Helio: STEREO, Sentinels • Radiation: RBSP, Sentinels • Geospace Impact: MMS, THEMIS, RBSP, ITSP • Earth Impacts: SDO, AIM • Moon, Mars Awareness: LRO, MSL, ITSP • Interstellar Boundary: IBEX • Inner Boundary:Solar Probe • Sample vast range with frequent small observatories Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction • New Knowledge • Strategic missions planned for critical scientific exploration and for space weather understanding • Safe and Productive Space Operations Phase 2: • Physical models of important space weather processes • Inner heliosphere radiation & space weather forecasts • Atmospheric response to external drivers • Measure near-Sun space environment • Select low-cost Explorer opportunity missions for fast response as knowledge changes Understand the Nature of our Home in Space • Space Weather Mitigation • Phase 2 Missions: • Solar magnetic processes • Impacts to geospace system • Mars atmosphere • Heliospheric structure & disturbances • Utilize low-cost extended missions to gain solar system scale understanding - Great Observatory “sensor web” • Decision Support Tools Phase 3: • Predict solar, heliospheric & stellar activity • Drivers of climate and habitability • Sample Interstellar medium • Forecast space weather for society and explorers Safeguard our outbound Journey • Phase 3 Missions: • Solar System Space Weather • Mars space weather • Venus, Jupiter, Neptune orbiters • Interstellar sample return • Stellar cycles • Disseminate data for environmental modeling via distributed Virtual Observatories Phase 1 • Future Scientists & Engineers NASA & partner producers of SSSC science information Users of SSSC science information

Near-Term Priorities and Gaps • 2. Take the next development step for the Sun-Solar System Connection Great Observatory: • Integrate LWS Ionosphere-Thermosphere Storm Probes (ITSP or ITM) into the Great Observatory to discover the science enabling the creation of space weather models at Earth. This science and these models will form the foundation upon which the Mars space environment and its evolution, including the Martian atmosphere, will be understood. • Fly LWS Solar Probe through the Sun's atmosphere to explore inner boundary of our system and directly sample the source region of the solar wind and solar energetic particles for the first time • Deploy LWS Solar Sentinelsto discover the heliospheric initiation, propagation and solar connection of those energetic phenomena that adversely affect space exploration and life and society here on Earth • 1. Exploit the existing Sun-Solar System Great Observatory in service of space weather research Solar Probe IT Storm Probes Sentinels

Human Capital and Infrastructure So that we may develop/maintain U.S. space plasma and space weather prediction / mitigation expertise, it is vital to provide a broad range of competed funding opportunities for the scientific community • Science Investigations: • Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP) • Living with a Star (LWS) • Explorer Program • Discovery Program • Sun-Solar System Great Observatory • Research Programs: • Research and Analysis Grants • Guest Investigator • Theory Program • Targeted Research & Technology • Project Columbia Enabling Capabilities: Sounding Rocket/Balloon Program Advanced Technology Program Education and Public Outreach • Develop IT, Computing, Modeling and Analysis Infrastructure • Virtual Observatories • Low Cost Access to Space • Science, Training, & Instrument Development • E/PO to Attract Workers to Earth-Sun Systems Science • Maintain Multiple Hardware & Modeling Groups • Strengthen University Involvement in Space Hardware Development • Facilitate and Exploit Partnerships • Interagency and International • Upgrade DSN to Collect More Data Throughout the Solar System

External Partnerships • Partnership Forums: • International Living with a Star • International Heliophysical Year • Enabling Space Weather Predictions for the International Space Environment Service • National Space Weather Program • Future Partnership Missions: • Solar Orbiter (ESA) • Current Partnership Missions: • Ulysses (ESA) • SoHO (ESA) • Cluster (ESA) • Geotail (JAXA) • Solar-B (JAXA) • National Partners: • National Science Foundation • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration • NOAA Space Environment Center • Department of Commerce • Department of Defense • Department of Transportation • Department of Energy • Department of the Interior

Technology Development • Answering science questions requires measurements at unique vantage points in and outside the solar system • Cost-effective, high-∆V propulsion and deep space power • CRM-1: High energy power & propulsion—nuclear electric propulsion, RTGs • CRM-2: In-space transportation—solar sails • CRM-15: Nanotechnology—carbon nanotube membranes for sails • Resolving space-time ambiguities requires simultaneous in-situ measurements (constellations or sensor webs) • Compact, affordable spacecraft via low-power electronics • CRM-3: Advanced telescopes & observatories • Low-cost access to space • CRM-10: Transformational spaceport • Return of large data sets from throughout the solar system • Next-generation, Deep Space Network • CRM-5: Communication and Navigation • Visualization, analysis and modeling of plasma data • CRM-13: Advanced modeling/simulation/analysis • New measurement techniques – compact, instrumentation suites • Next generation of Sun-Solar System instrumentation • CRM-11: Scientific instruments & sensors • CRM-15: Nanotechnology

Education and Public Outreach Education and Public Outreach is Essential to the Achievement of the Exploration Vision • Emphasis on workforce development • Requires increase in the capacity of our nation’s education systems (K-16) • Entrain under-represented communities in STEM careers (demographic projections to 2025 underscore this need) • Roadmap committee #10 has focused on: • Close up look at role national science education standards play in effectively connecting NASA content to formal education • Importance of E/PO to achievement of Exploration Vision • Identification of unique E/PO opportunities • Articulation of challenges and recommendations for effective E/PO Unique E/PO opportunities associated with SSSC science

Integration: Human and Robotic Flight Sun-Solar System Connections receives contributes • Space environment specification for materials and technology requirements definition. • Prediction of solar activity and its impact on planetary and interplanetary environments as an operational element of Exploration. Examples: • presence of penetrating radiation (hazardous to health and microcircuitry); • varying ionization/scintillations (interferes with communications and navigation); • increased atmospheric scale heights (enhanced frictional drag). Lunar Exploration SRM1 Mars Exploration SRM2 Exploration Transportation SRM5 Space Station SRM6 Space Shuttle SRM7 Primary interfaces involve understanding of the physical processes associated with the dynamics of space plasmas and electromagnetic fields

Integration: Science Sun-Solar System Connections receives contributes Lunar Exploration • Electrostatics & Charging Processes • History of the Solar Wind SRM1 • Mars Aeronomy and Ionosphere • Atmospheric Loss; Habitability Mars Exploration • Platforms for investigations of com-parative magnetospheres/ionospheres; exploration of heliosphere and interstellar medium SRM2 Solar System Exploration SRM3 • Sun/Climate Connection • Societal impacts of space weather processes Earth System and Dynamics SRM9 Exploration of the Universe • The Sun as a magnetic variable Star • Fundamental plasma processes SRM8 Primary interfaces involve understanding of the physical processes associated with the dynamics of space plasmas and electromagnetic fields

Integration: Major Capability Relationships #1 Integration: Major Capability Relationships #1 Sun-Solar System Connections receives contributes High Energy Power & Propulsion • High energy power and propulsion to reach unique vantage points and operate there; CRM2 In-Space Transportation • Development of in-space propulsion such as provided by solar sails; CRM3 Advanced Telescopes and Observatories • Space interferometry in UV, and compact affordable platforms for clusters & constellations CRM4 • Now-casting and fore-casting of space weather Communication and Navigation • High band width deep space communication CRM5 Robotic Access to Planetary Surfaces • Characterization, modeling, and prediction of planetary environments; CRM6 Human Planetary Landing Systems • Characterization, modeling, and prediction of planetary environments; CRM7 Human Health and Support System • Characterization, modeling, and prediction of space environments; CRM8 Human Exploration Systems & Mobility • Characterization, modeling, and prediction of planetary environments; CRM9

Integration: Major Capability Relationships #1 Integration: Major Capability Relationships #2 Sun-Solar System Connections receives contributes Autonomous Systems & Robotics • sensor web technology; affordable operations for constellations CRM10 • low-cost space access via rockets, secondary payload accommodation, and low cost launchers; Transformation Spaceport/Range CRM11 Scientific Instruments & Sensors • an array of new technologies that enable affordable synoptic observation program; CRM12 In-Situ Resource Utilization • contributes expertise & experience in techniques for space resource detection and location CRM13 • advanced data assimilation from diverse sources and advanced model/simulation techniques for space weather prediction; Advanced Modeling/Simulation /Analysis CRM14 Systems Engineering Cost/Risk Analysis • best practices required across the board; CRM15 • advanced carbon membranes for solar sails; cross cutting technology beneficial to many missions; Nanotechnology CRM16

Sun-Solar System Connection