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Ecosystem variability, preparing an integrated (ecosystem) assessment of the North Sea

Ecosystem variability, preparing an integrated (ecosystem) assessment of the North Sea. Andrew Kenny (CEFAS, UK). ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011. Outline. IEA Concepts and Approaches (2 slides) Ecosystem Variability – North Sea case study (18 slides)

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Ecosystem variability, preparing an integrated (ecosystem) assessment of the North Sea

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  1. Ecosystem variability, preparing an integrated (ecosystem)assessment of the North Sea Andrew Kenny (CEFAS, UK) ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  2. Outline • IEA Concepts and Approaches (2 slides) • Ecosystem Variability – North Sea case study(18 slides) • Policy & Management Relevance (3 slides) 1/ 1 Introduction ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  3. IEA: Process & Products The flow of information required in an adaptive integrated management system to conserve the marine environment. ICES SGEAM 2000 report. 1/ 2 Concepts & Approaches ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  4. IEA : Approaches: • Data Driven! • Integrated analysis of empirical data…patterns & causes of ecosystem change • Policy Driven! • Impact Assessment Matrices… immediate policy relevance Both part of the same solution! 2/ 2 Concepts & Approaches ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  5. ICES“North Sea Integrated Ecosystem Assessment” (1983 – 2009) Data Driven…..! Kenny et al. 2009. An integrated approach for assessing the relative significance of human pressures and environmental forcing on the status of Large Marine Ecosystems. PiO, 81, 1-4, 132-148. 1/ 18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  6. North Sea Monitoring Data8,433,120 spatially & temporally explicit ecosystem observations (1983-2009) Abiotic, Biotic State/Pressure variables representing 5 trophic levels…… 3 Years of effort, but….. 2/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  7. Online Data Interrogation Tools www.Emecodata.net http://www.ices.dk/marineworld/fishmap/ices Explore patterns of ecosystem variability – the big picture! 5/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  8. Which components >100 individual state/pressure variables 3/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  9. The need for Gridded Data • Time-Series Analysis (for each parameter a North Sea annual average) • Spatial Analysis (for each parameter a time-series average for each cell) 4/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  10. Spatial Analysis 6/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  11. Spatial Analysis Estimated (modelled) seawater residence times (ICES, 1983). 7/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  12. Conclusions(Spatial Analysis) • Clear environmental gradients • Bathymetry and hydrodynamic processes (waves, tides, nutrients) most important • Spatial gradients are relatively stable over time (multi-decadal) • Abiotic spatial gradients correlate significantly with spatial trends in all biotic parameters analysed 8/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  13. Time-Series Analysis(1983 – 2007) 9/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  14. North Sea Ecosystem 106 ordered state/pressure variables PC1 – 35% 1983 2007 D. Fish C. Finmarchicus Nutrients Salinity N. Fulmar P. Fish C. helgolandicus Temperature CPR Colour Index N. Gannet 10/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  15. North Sea Ecosystem 1983 – 1990 2003 – 2009 Increases in Ave. D Fish Length, C. Finmarchicus. 1991 – 2001 Rodionov Regime Shift Detector Increases in Herring SSB, Ave P. Fish Length, Temp, C. Helgolandicus What is driving this pattern of change? 11/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  16. Fishing Pressure Ecosystem Component Interactions Environment 12/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  17. North Sea Ecosystem Components Fish Stocks Fishing Effort 13/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  18. 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Fishery/Stock Env./Plankton SSB Herring North Sea Ecosystem 1983 - 2007 1983 2007 14/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011 18/20

  19. Trends within Trends Long-term trends Herring SSB, AMO & Herring Landings Toresen and Østvedt, 2000 What about other ecosystem variables? 15/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  20. Ecosystem Trends Closer look at trends in –ve anomalies from 1983 16/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  21. Ecosystem Trends P. Fish C. helgolandicus CPR Colour Index N. Gannet The good days… could be at an end!! 17/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  22. Conclusions(Time-Series Analysis) • Trends within Trends(longer-term, multi-decadaltrajectories, shorter-term multi-annualoscillations) • Trajectories possibly linked to the AMO? • Oscillations linked to a dynamic equilibrium between top-down vs. bottom-up forcing • The direction, rate and amplitude of oscillations appear greatest during phase changes in the AMO. Combination of fishing and climate pressures. 18/18 Ecosystem Variability ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  23. What is the policy relevance? 1/3 Policy Relevance ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  24. Policy Relevance • Management strategies which adapt to long-term natural changes in ecosystem state (or trajectories) are essential - more of some things, but less of others • Assessment of GES descriptors at appropriate scales in time and space - different scales of assessment = different outcomes • Avoid rapid changes in ecosystem state (regime shifts) - by assessing the relative direction and rate of bottom-up vstop-down forcing and the interactions between ecosystem components 2/3 Policy Relevance ICES/NAFO Symposium Santander 2011

  25. Integrated Ecosystem Assessment Regional assessments for MSFD (GES) OSPAR Quality Status Reports Effective (& objective) transfer of scientific knowledge into policy Expert Judgement Impact matrix for integrated monitoring and assessment Objective Science Modelling Component Interactions (help to identify which are the most significant) 3/3 Policy Relevance

  26. The start of a new day for marine management! Thank You!

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