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Reported emissions for models

Reported emissions for models. Perspectives from MACC & MACC-II projects, and the use of the LOTOS-EUROS AQ model . Jeroen Kuenen, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Magdalena Jozwicka, Antoon Visschedijk. Total NMVOC, 2009. What do emission inventories offer?. Procedural process

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Reported emissions for models

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  1. Reported emissions for models Perspectives from MACC & MACC-II projects, and the use of the LOTOS-EUROS AQ model Jeroen Kuenen, Hugo Denier van der Gon, Magdalena Jozwicka, Antoon Visschedijk Total NMVOC, 2009

  2. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models What do emission inventories offer? • Procedural process • Follow the Guidelines • Specifically set number of sources • Aim to use the best science • Annually we report again emissions for all years from the start of the period • Methods change over time • New numbers every year for all years in the past

  3. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models What do modellers need? • Modellers need emissions, but more than just “inventories” • They need (high resolution) spatially distributed emissions • They need temporally distributed emissions • They need all sources, so not only the sources covered by reporting requirements (including non-anthropogenic sources) • Biogenic and soil emissions • Resuspension, road dust • But above all, they need a fully consistent dataset accross the whole domain!

  4. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Officially reported emissions of PM10 (kt) Thanks to CEIP for making all this available!!!

  5. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Reported emission trends • A consistent emission inventory in space and time is key to modellers, as they aim to understand the spatial/temporal patterns • Trends in reported emissions are not always understandable

  6. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Country-to-country variations for NOX

  7. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Similar discrepancies for PM

  8. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Also spatial consistency is very important • In some cases, the average “emission density” at the border changes quite a lot Source: reported emissions to CLRTAP (EEA website)

  9. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models But there is more where we have work to do... • Work together between inventory people and modellers to identify missing or wrong sources • Sources are not covered by EIs can be very important for modellers (e.g. resuspension; road dust) • VOC/PM composition; condensable organics are a candidate to add additional PM emissions (more in Expert Panel on Tuesday) • International shipping • Open discussion of unknowns (e.g. NMVOCs from agriculture) • Bring in new pollutants where relevant, especially the composition of PM as there is a strong connection to climate change • Black carbon now being introduced

  10. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Elemental carbon emission map for 2005

  11. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models But there is more where we have work to do... • Ensuring a consistent spatial distribution accross countries • Covering major point sources in all countries (connection to E-PRTR?) • Using proxies to distribute area sources, in a consistent way • Work together with the modelling community to improve time profiles • Improve the default profiles, more sectoral or region specific issues • Use actual data instead of default profiles, e.g. meteorology

  12. Time profiles applied to anthropogenic emissions Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models

  13. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Example of time profiles for power plants

  14. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Conclusions and recommendations • Both modellers and inventory compilers need to understand each other • Challenges ahead in terms of: • Consistency of emission estimates in both space and time • Improving the spatial and temporal emission patterns • New sources and new pollutants • A good dialogue between inventory compilers and modellers is key to make progress

  15. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models TNO-MACC_II inventory • Gridded emission inventory for 2003-2009 for UNECE Europe, used by many modelling groups in Europe for main air pollutants • Inventory is based on: • Reported data where possible • Alternative data (e.g. GAINS emissions or own bottom-up estimates) where needed • All emissions (dis-)aggregated to 77 different source categories • Spatially distributed using general methodology for all countries • Use of annual E-PRTR data for distribution of PS emissions for selected sources, countries and pollutants

  16. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models Example: NOx total for 2009 Thank you!

  17. Jeroen Kuenen Reported emissions for models TNO-MACC_II use? • Interested in the TNO_MACC-II data? Possible to use these for comparison to other estimates etc. • Please contact • Jeroen.Kuenen@tno.nl • Hugo.Deniervandergon@tno.nl

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